☣ Coronavirus ☣
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Hally
Well-Known Member
And hopefully wrong, I really really want it to be
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diver
Well-Known Member
Definitely!
Its 60 times more infectious
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
For those interested, google for "B117 variant" to find info on it.
If you find articles about antibodies not been as effective, don't panic. It's about monoculture antibodies (single type) been potentially less effective. Normal immune response produces polyclonal antibodies (multiple types) which will still work.
Ps: the highlighting new posts seems to work again this morning. No more manual scrolling to last page ???
If you find articles about antibodies not been as effective, don't panic. It's about monoculture antibodies (single type) been potentially less effective. Normal immune response produces polyclonal antibodies (multiple types) which will still work.
Ps: the highlighting new posts seems to work again this morning. No more manual scrolling to last page ???
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This thread always goes a bit nuts immediately after a PM address. Fourfold if it's negative. (Guilty ?)
This is what happens when a pathological liar is in charge.
Two "sides" here last night and the common ground was that nobody could trust what they were being told. The seeds for this were sown long ago as an actual policy. Unfortunately those shady powers failed to see a global health crisis on the horizon. By the time it arrived, the damage had been done and the sides had been chosen. Divisive politics is effective when you want to manipulate topics like immigration, but horrific when you need everybody pulling together.
This is what happens when a pathological liar is in charge.
Two "sides" here last night and the common ground was that nobody could trust what they were being told. The seeds for this were sown long ago as an actual policy. Unfortunately those shady powers failed to see a global health crisis on the horizon. By the time it arrived, the damage had been done and the sides had been chosen. Divisive politics is effective when you want to manipulate topics like immigration, but horrific when you need everybody pulling together.
Buckley
Well-Known Member
@white_isle_calling Yeah, my general position on everything is that unless I'm the expert, I go with the consensus of experts. So if the broad scientific consensus is that lockdowns work, I'll go with that rather than one or two contratrian experts.
I can understand why our Government's complete inconsistency and downright incompetence, make people question the official narrative, but you only have to scratch the surface of the lockdown sceptism movement to find that it's bunkem.
I can understand why our Government's complete inconsistency and downright incompetence, make people question the official narrative, but you only have to scratch the surface of the lockdown sceptism movement to find that it's bunkem.
Hally
Well-Known Member
????? yes!!!!
Hally
Well-Known Member
Last night was wine and ex wife fuelled for me. The 30% thing got me going as for an individual the change is tiny but for us 30% would be huge. I get it's only suggestive but a bit on edge ?
Personally I find the downplaying of what is happening in hospitals very difficult (especially as I know how absolutely ridiculous this is, damaging to moral and may promote behaviour in others that just makes the situation worse)
Some of the its 'only old people...' sentiment (put forward by very very few) I find disgusting
Everyone has their right to an opinion and even the 'nuts' discussion on here is sensible and balanced compared to anywhere else I look
Hope everyone gets through okay. It's taking a toll and the end seems a way off yet
Personally I find the downplaying of what is happening in hospitals very difficult (especially as I know how absolutely ridiculous this is, damaging to moral and may promote behaviour in others that just makes the situation worse)
Some of the its 'only old people...' sentiment (put forward by very very few) I find disgusting
Everyone has their right to an opinion and even the 'nuts' discussion on here is sensible and balanced compared to anywhere else I look
Hope everyone gets through okay. It's taking a toll and the end seems a way off yet
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Hally
Well-Known Member
Thats pretty much where I am. My thing is hospitals so get a bit triggered in that regard when nonsense gets posted
kimajy
Well-Known Member
I think people should actually listen to the whole Government briefing with Q&A now and again instead of looking for tantalizing twitter titbits and media headlines which follow. I actually listened to yesterday's in full and thought it was balanced, honest and in no way a scaremogering "fearporn" session. I could understand from a public health perspective the reasons for the Govt response based on everything said and they were honest about the limitations on what conclusions could/couldn't be drawn. Around the peak of a wave they have to take a cautious path around risks still being evaluated from live data which takes time to pan out.
I actually think the UK government and advisory are more honest with the population in these latest briefings than anywhere else in the world. Perhaps that it why there is such high support for restrictions and so little vaccination scepticism (relatively speaking !)
Hally
Well-Known Member
My take was they were trying to be transparent. Listened to the head of NERVTAG this morning and he said exactly the same, find the idea that he would be deliver FearPorn strange. More downplayed it than anything focusing on the minimal change to the risk for individuals
I'm sure they are worried that with the vaccines people are thinking 'it'll be all over by April' where they are seeing a drawn out, messy exit ahead
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2H76
Well-Known Member
From the very start they said lockdowns were to protecte the vulnerable and the NHS - and by doing one you pretty well do the other. Now we're being told that even though we vaccinate all the vulnerable (meaning as most would end up in the NHS) it might not free up NHS capacity for the rest of us.
So we are told lockdown has to carry on indefinately - is it any wonder people are confused and angry? The fact that the new variant is more transmissable amongst those not vaccinated is counter-balanced by those infected shouldn't be ill enough to use hospital. Then they say it's more deadly - but the figure quoted was for over 70's (I think - was it 60's?) so instead of soemthing like ten dying per 1000, it's 15. But they are all supposed to be vaccinated by the end of February....
So it's full of contradictions. Get that second dose into those 70+ and vulnerable, look at the case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths then and please let's have a grown up debate about ending lockdown. For my pennyworth's - if it's safe enough to re-open schools with the risk of them taking it home (by then grandparents should be vaxxed) then it's safe wnough to put the whole country on level one.
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
I think the problem is that we are in lockdown and they are having briefings to let people know what is going on and feel "better" about it.
Issue is they can't say "we don't really know yet, we need more time to collect data". Just wouldn't fly. Headlines like "gov not got a clue! No end in sight".
So they give info in current incomplete data, with caveats as mentioned in a previous post.
To use a football analogy (and I hate football ?), it's like 30 mins asking pundits who think is going to win and how many goals. They can guess on stats and info from first 30 mins. But at 50 mins in someone could be injured throwing it all out. So it's just best guess until it's closer to 90 mins.
I think if they said at start something to make it clearer what their confidence levels and thinking where would help. Scientists never commit to absolutes until solid evidence, so speak in possibilities which can make the lay person think they are flip flopping??
Hally
Well-Known Member
I believe 60s was the example but the theoretical increase is for all age groups
My caveat would be the really big problem in hospitals is ICU capacity and that is by and large an under 70s issue. Cut loose to soon then ICU will be overwhelmed, although ambulances and wards will ease
The exit may be slower than everyone hopes. Trust me I hope for a quick end to this as much as anyone
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kimajy
Well-Known Member
No they said that was proportionally the same for all age groups and just selected one representative age group to show the absolute numbers corresponding to such a proportionate increase. In trying to put things simply for people to understand those same people jump to the conclusion that the issue is only relevant to the representative illustrative age group. This is the problem with trying to explain things to a general population who can't or are not interested in taking the whole message in. A bit like a teacher trying to get things across to a diverse classroom of students. Not a personal criticism of you btw ... it is just saying it how it as as far as the extent to which people are willing or able to spend the time it takes to listen to and understand a whole sermon, rather than only some parts of it.
Well, if you suddenly have a spike in infections of an unvaccinated group that's also leading to hospitalizations (even if not so many deaths) because Mr virus has decided to mutate then the same analytical parameters and assumptions as held in March will not hold any more. They realized this when trying to understand why the Tier system was not panning out to their expectations. Not sure how you could see that in advance tbh
Your first point even Boris has basically said - they cannot call ending a lockdown on date X based on vaccinations without seeing what happens to hospitalizations and understanding why.
With regard to schools I agree with you - but they know transmission will increase in schools so this is being counterbalanced by tighter movement restrictions against those who don't have school age children. This is a trade-off I am also extremely unhappy with but the answer is not to pre-emptively let schools back. In areas with residual high infection levels and rates they will hold to Tiers because it is clear behaviour and circumstances in those areas is leading to higher transmission than other areas. Look mate 7 day rolling average infection rates where I live have been 38-60 per 100,000 for the last week. Compare well over 1,000 in hard-hit UK areas or even close to 2,000 in Ibiza. It is completely bonkers to keep us here under full lockdown right now but we are rolling with the country-wide approach along with everyone else. Those areas where people can't or don't behave and live in a way which contains infections will have to be restricted in medium term in ways we are not.
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djedwardsmith
Active Member
Of course they do - it's a f***ing pandemic, countries have had to respond en masse to a fast changing virus and do so whilst having to deal with cranks like you who argue their every move.
Bullshit. The study is factual - of the people studied they found a 30% increase in those dying. The issue with it is that there's not enough evidence to say with certainty, hence why scientists are explicitly saying it's early days and they need much more evidence to be certain. However, it would go some way to explaining why the UK currently has the worst death rate in the world despite also having one of the better medical systems set up to handle severe cases.
Oh and on a last point, Elrow's opinion was already worthless in here but I just saw when catching up that he also suggested Sweden aren't doing too badly. Unless I'm mistaken they've recently gone into a strict lockdown, are considering curfews, and the governing party are being hammered in the poll's as a result of their loose handling so far.
And they accidentally vaccinated 1000 people incorrectly.
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
On a positive note, the uk vaccinated 480k people in latest reported daily figures. That's around 3.5m a week of keep that up. They might even get close to 5m a week by sometime feb. (~700k a day)
I suspect by mid feb they will almost meet their targets and reconsider the 12 week delay for 2nd dose to 6 weeks instead (doctors group has asked gov to consider that)
I suspect by mid feb they will almost meet their targets and reconsider the 12 week delay for 2nd dose to 6 weeks instead (doctors group has asked gov to consider that)
lee111s
Well-Known Member
It’s hella impressive. I just hope the supplies can be maintained for the capacity we clearly seem to have created.
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