☣ Coronavirus ☣

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Hally said:
The only figure that really matters at the moment is the 37,475 beds being taken up by people with coronavirus in acute hospitals. In large parts of the country the system is hanging on by a thread. More and more vital treatment having to be postponed. The government simply can't let the acute hospital system fail
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I'm sorry but that simply isn't true.

I understand there is pressure. But for a lot of other people. A lot. The figure that matters to them is there bank balance. Their rent/mortgage bill each month. The 20% cut in income from Furlough. I could go on......Poor people are getting poorer.....

There isn't any end in sight for a lot of people. I may be out slightly here. But the top 4 most vulnerable groups account for 90% of Covid related deaths. So surely once these have been vaccinated and 3 weeks has past. That's when Boris needs to open up some of the economy. And if the government are on target for the vaccination programme, then they could be a little more forthwith with this plan. They are not......

Which brings me back to my original post. People here are talking like they'll be a dance floor come summer....

I don't see at at all.

Again I hope I'm wrong and I'm being negative. Time will tell..
 
spinksy123 said:
I'm sorry but that simply isn't true.

I understand there is pressure. But for a lot of other people. A lot. The figure that matters to them is there bank balance. Their rent/mortgage bill each month. The 20% cut in income from Furlough. I could go on......Poor people are getting poorer.....

There isn't any end in sight for a lot of people. I may be out slightly here. But the top 4 most vulnerable groups account for 90% of Covid related deaths. So surely once these have been vaccinated and 3 weeks has past. That's when Boris needs to open up some of the economy. And if the government are on target for the vaccination programme, then they could be a little more forthwith with this plan. They are not......

Which brings me back to my original post. People here are talking like they'll be a dance floor come summer....

I don't see at at all.

Again I hope I'm wrong and I'm being negative. Time will tell..
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Right now it simply is true, I get there is a bigger picture but we are currently in a dire situation. No government is going to allow a situation where ambulances dont turn up and hospitals have no beds for people. We are frighteningly close to that. At the moment everything has to be secondary as difficult as that is. You then need to empty the hospitals to a point where other services can resume, otherwise the deaths from cancer and other conditions will be worse than covid

I think the pace we come out of this is hard to judge. A combination of vaccination and better weather may mean it's relatively quick

The government has made a real mess of much of this but cant do anything until we get past this current crisis point
 
Just to be clear the CMO did say in one of the briefings that they may need to be some kind of restrictions next winter, but might not. Depends on how it is. (Edit: meaning if winter is looking bad, they might reintroduce some measures.)

He also said the restrictions will be rolled back in stages from spring (say end of march-april) and evaluate how each relaxation affects numbers. Not a big bang all back to normal. Imho I think by June time we will have seated pubs and the like back, even possibly by end of May.

Also there are reports of ambulances taking 7+ hours to turn up to people who've fallen in the street (suspected broken leg etc), not kinda thing you want, laying on cold floor for that long ?
 
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stivi said:
with rapid tests, it's totally doable. I think no one in the industry expects a 'normal' summer this year
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Will anyone want to take a punt on a possible outbreak? Or be linked to one. This rapid tests aren't particularly accurate are they? Genuine question again...
 
Hally said:
Right now it simply is true, I get there is a bigger picture but we are currently in a dire situation. No government is going to allow a situation where ambulances dont turn up and hospitals have no beds for people. We are frighteningly close to that. At the moment everything has to be secondary as difficult as that is. You then need to empty the hospitals to a point where other services can resume, otherwise the deaths from cancer and other conditions will be worse than covid

I think the pace we come out of this is hard to judge. A combination of vaccination and better weather may mean it's relatively quick

The government has made a real mess of much of this but cant do anything until we get past this current crisis point
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Appreciate your answer. And the brutality of the situation is that you may be right. I don't think everyone will share that view though.

Myself. Maybe I'm just struggling to see any light. Not for myself but for others really struggling in other ways other than Covid-19 and very sceptical of the government. Goalposts seem to be moving at the minute
 
can anyone shed any light on why they are already guessing we will see more restrictions come into play next winter? do they not have much faith in the vaccines or something? I try not to get too caught up in all this and just try keep my family ticking on and my head above water but somethings just puzzle me.. there is a massive sense of Covid tunnel vision going on and Im starting to think along the lines of @spinksy123


once everyone is vaccinated I don't see how they can possibly carry on with any restrictions, wont we have exhausted every avenue at that point?
 
spinksy123 said:
Will anyone want to take a punt on a possible outbreak? Or be linked to one. This rapid tests aren't particularly accurate are they? Genuine question again...
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first off, I might be wrong with my assumption, but anyway, here goes. and I'm repeating myself, I said something similar the other day.

come summer, a certain part of the population will be vaccinated (the most vulnerable for sure). at the same time, by summer, the economical/financial pressure in lots of sectors will be so big, that I personally do think, yes, in the end things like small outbreaks will have to be taken into account. you all know my stance on lockdowns etc by now and I will stay on the safe side of things for the next few months still while vaccination gets ramped up, but I also firmly believe that come summer, things just have to start moving one way or another. corona won't go away completely (every scientist says so) and thus, as I had said, at some point I believe certain risks have to be taken to get life going again. I'm not talking about 5000 people in amnesia this summer, but a formula with rapid tests (and the small risk they do present), I truly believe it's something that will get considered this summer.
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Just to be clear the CMO did say in one of the briefings that they may need to be some kind of restrictions next winter, but might not. Depends on how it is. (Edit: meaning if winter is looking bad, they might reintroduce some measures.)

He also said the restrictions will be rolled back in stages from spring (say end of march-april) and evaluate how each relaxation affects numbers. Not a big bang all back to normal. Imho I think by June time we will have seated pubs and the like back, even possibly by end of May.

Also there are reports of ambulances taking 7+ hours to turn up to people who've fallen in the street (suspected broken leg etc), not kinda thing you want, laying on cold floor for that long ?
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7 hours for a broken leg. Personally I'd call a cab if it were that long.......But I get your point......
 
stivi said:
first off, I might be wrong with my assumption, but anyway, here goes. and I'm repeating myself, I said something similar the other day.

come summer, a certain part of the population will be vaccinated (the most vulnerable for sure). at the same time, by summer, the economical/financial pressure in lots of sectors will be so big, that I personally do think, yes, in the end things like small outbreaks will have to be taken into account. you all know my stance on lockdowns etc by now and I will stay on the safe side of things for the next few months still while vaccination gets ramped up, but I also firmly believe that come summer, things just have to start moving one way or another. corona won't go away completely (every scientist says so) and thus, as I had said, at some point I believe certain risks have to be taken to get life going again. I'm not talking about 5000 people in amnesia this summer, but a formula with rapid tests (and the small risk they do present), I truly believe it's something that will get considered this summer.
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Ibiza possibly. Not the UK........They'd like every club to be renovated into blocks of flats
 
chez said:
can anyone shed any light on why they are already guessing we will see more restrictions come into play next winter? do they not have much faith in the vaccines or something? I try not to get too caught up in all this and just try keep my family ticking on and my head above water but somethings just puzzle me.. there is a massive sense of Covid tunnel vision going on and Im starting to think along the lines of @spinksy123


once everyone is vaccinated I don't see how they can possibly carry on with any restrictions, wont we have exhausted every avenue at that point?
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I dont think anyone really knows what things will look like by the winter, just too many variables with new strains, vaccine uptake etc. My guess is the government doesnt want to over promise (yet again). Personally I'm hopeful things will be fairly normal with Covid being similar to flu in harms and our response
 
spinksy123 said:
7 hours for a broken leg. Personally I'd call a cab if it were that long.......But I get your point......
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Apparently some passing builders tried that but the person was in too much pain to move ?
spinksy123 said:
Update

Every adult in UK to be offered vaccine by September......
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Yeah it looking like by autumn all adults will have had opportunity for vaccination.

It's why I'm hopeful as last July August while not great, a lot was still possible, and that was without vaccines.

So as we go through spring to summer more and more will be protected from serious disease, meaning more will be possible.

Also some evidence vaccines reduce transmission, but not completely (data still not in officially, but virologist was talking about it), so like reducing R value effect but not making it 0.

The only choke point is vaccine supply with more countries approving them and wanting them. SC Johnson's vaccine is likely to be approved in the near future, and is like the oxford one, fridge temps etc but only requires 1 dose!

As for winter and possible restrictions, that's hedging their bets in case seasonal flu or some covid variant or some group who refused the vaccine result in nhs capacity issues. My personal take it's not that likely. Perhaps mass gatherings having limits on numbers or something ?‍♂️

The economy is in the toilet, but there is pent up demand and if its allowed to recover it could bounce back quickly. Just requires banks etc not to be too over zealous with loans, mortgages etc been behind in payments (after what we did for them in 2008 they bloody shouldn't!).

I feel fortunate my job hasn't been affected too much by all this. I do feel for those that have had it hard though. I suspect the gov will look at tax and contributions (for us normal folk) to make sure there ain't groups who fall through the cracks like this time.

So all in all I'm cautiously optimistic. Not back to normal, but by august I think will be better than last years August for sure.

If you want balance and to feel pessimistic, watch this:confused:
m.imdb.com

Das Kapital im 21. Jahrhundert (2019) ⭐ 7.3 | Documentary

1h 43m | 12
m.imdb.com m.imdb.com
I feel many might end up been like horses (quote from the end of the doc)
 
Hally said:
Once again thank f**k for the sanity on here, it's the only place on the internet I can talk about Covid-19 and unload a bit. I've said it before but I for one need it, it's all very s**t right now
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In turn @Hally, I think a lot of us feel the same about your honest and pragmatic posts. It puts things in to perspective when I think things are a bit shit but actually I've got it pretty easy x
 
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