☣ Coronavirus ☣

[lee111s]

I wasn’t there. The way I read your post was that most were not wearing masks. If not I accept that. We all know what the media are like.

Regardless, plenty aren’t. And plenty are not adhering to the guidance. And that is causing a problem. We see it in shops, schools, offices, pubs, Hotels, planes, public transport. We see it everywhere.

Regarding civil liberties, I’m afraid it is time to relax these at a time of crisis. Large communities are failing to comply with basic guidance. That is putting us all at risk. This is a pandemic. In the UK, if we went down a herd immunity approach most estimates suggest 500,000 will die. Put that on a world multiplier. What would you prefer, a few months of civil liberty infringement or do as you wish to see tens on millions die? There is a middle ground and that hasn’t been working which has led us to this point. I want the middle ground to work until (if) we get a a vaccine, but it’s not working. I’d like to get through lockdown mk2 then see some sensible enforcement of what was guidance and that should extend how long it takes for the need for lockdown mk3 to happen.

And politically I am a centrist so advocating what I am doesn’t come easy.

The imperial college London modelling has been heavily criticised by many top scientist since professor Ferguson was peddled.

It used very heavy bias based on a higher than now known fatility rate and it assumed everyone would get the virus and that no one had any sort of cross immunity from previous exposure to coronvirus’. It appears they’re still stuck using the same old information and driving fear.

They could so with listening more to guys like Carl Heneghan, a professor for evidence based medicine at Oxford.

Don’t just take my word for it. See this article in the British Medial Journal https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3374

Here’s also another really interesting piece from the Science and Technology select comittee earlier this week. Goverments need to start looking at the real sciend and evidence that’s been learned sinde the start of this, rather than blind panic and lockdowns. They really don’t have a handle on it and as a result, have little option other than to lockdown, which doesn’t work. It just delays the inevitable. This virus is here to stay, you cannot get rid.

Parliamentlive.tv

Science and Technology Committee

parliamentlive.tv

Another peice of cross immunity https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

 

[djedwardsmith]

If the virus is here to stay, then surely you enforce the measures rigidly to prevent it spreading and limit it's effects until you either have a cure, or can trust the public to take the necessary measures?

"They need to start listening to THIS GUY WHO AGREES WITH MY POINT OF VIEW" is such a strawman argument - do you not think they'll have considered his views? Do you think they all sit there around the table nodding in agreement with each other without any dissenting views?

 

[lee111s]

If the virus is here to stay, then surely you enforce the measures rigidly to prevent it spreading and limit it's effects until you either have a cure, or can trust the public to take the necessary measures?

"They need to start listening to THIS GUY WHO AGREES WITH MY POINT OF VIEW" is such a strawman argument - do you not think they'll have considered his views? Do you think they all sit there around the table nodding in agreement with each other without any dissenting views?

They’re not my views, but are based upon evidence, as opposed to using models trying to predict the future.

I don’t envy those in charge making the decisions, but there’s more and more evidence showing that the decisions they’re making are not making use of all of the available information.

 

[FlatErik]

I wasn’t there. The way I read your post was that most were not wearing masks. If not I accept that. We all know what the media are like.

Regardless, plenty aren’t. And plenty are not adhering to the guidance. And that is causing a problem. We see it in shops, schools, offices, pubs, Hotels, planes, public transport. We see it everywhere.

Regarding civil liberties, I’m afraid it is time to relax these at a time of crisis. Large communities are failing to comply with basic guidance. That is putting us all at risk. This is a pandemic. In the UK, if we went down a herd immunity approach most estimates suggest 500,000 will die. Put that on a world multiplier. What would you prefer, a few months of civil liberty infringement or do as you wish to see tens on millions die? There is a middle ground and that hasn’t been working which has led us to this point. I want the middle ground to work until (if) we get a a vaccine, but it’s not working. I’d like to get through lockdown mk2 then see some sensible enforcement of what was guidance and that should extend how long it takes for the need for lockdown mk3 to happen.

And politically I am a centrist so advocating what I am doesn’t come easy.

Sure, just relax civil liberties for an unknown period of time.

Just a graph here for the UK people on here:

 

[4tothefloor]

Sure, just relax civil liberties for an unknown period of time.

Just a graph here for the UK people on here:

It’s about being proactive this time as opposed reactive last time. Infection rates are doubling every 7 days here. We need to get on the front foot. Surely you recognise that? As a centrist I would not advocate civil liberties being relaxed unless it was a absolutely necessary. Unfortunately it is absolutely necessary imo. If we don’t, hundreds of thousands of deaths will happen unnecessarily.

 

[chez]

On the darker side of lockdowns.. obesity through the roof, alcoholism, drug abuse, depression, mass unemployment, businesses closing at an alarming rate, levels of unthinkable worldwide hunger in the poorer parts of the globe

I don't agree another lockdown is the answer its also damaging. Im currently in Turkey visiting family and there is talks their youngers (under 18) and older (over 65) may end up back in their lock downs and let the rest of the country keep things moving. I believe they did this the first time and seems to have worked ok

 

[stivi]

in spain we're currently (last 14 days) averaging at around 60 covid deaths per day. while that's a fraction of what we went through in the first wave, it still adds up to 1800 lives lost in a month.

 

[chez]

in spain we're currently (last 14 days) averaging at around 60 covid deaths per day. while that's a fraction of what we went through in the first wave, it still adds up to 1800 lives lost in a month.

Over the last 2 years 15'000 people died from the flu in Spain (according to google) which is bad enough, but straight off the bat 1800 in a month shows the virus cant be compared to regular flu and is no joke.. with numbers coming like that out of Spain still in a warmer period of the year I cant help but think 2021 is looking rather fairytale talk for the season to resume normality again

 

[FlatErik]

It’s about being proactive this time as opposed reactive last time. Infection rates are doubling every 7 days here. We need to get on the front foot. Surely you recognise that? As a centrist I would not advocate civil liberties being relaxed unless it was a absolutely necessary. Unfortunately it is absolutely necessary imo. If we don’t, hundreds of thousands of deaths will happen unnecessarily.

I don't recognize it no. But I can't speak for the UK (nor for Spain for the record).
In the Netherlands it's called a CASEDEMIC right now. And not just by a minority group.
We're being pushed into a second destructive lockdown because of CASES, not because of infections. Before I go on like a broken record, see my earlier posts about positive PCR tests. If I'm wrong, the graph I posted for the UK will surely change in two-four weeks right?

Besides that..there's still the discussion that's been held here many times before about 'unnecessary deaths'. Off course it's sad for relatives...but numbers are still showing that the vast majority of the deaths would have happened anyway, with or without Covid. But let's not get into that again for the forums sake

I fully support the type of measures @chez is talking about but that does not come as a surprise for many of you.

 

[4tothefloor]

I don't recognize it no. But I can't speak for the UK (nor for Spain for the record).
In the Netherlands it's called a CASEDEMIC right now. And not just by a minority group.
We're being pushed into a second destructive lockdown because of CASES, not because of infections. Before I go on like a broken record, see my earlier posts about positive PCR tests. If I'm wrong, the graph I posted for the UK will surely change in two-four weeks right?

Besides that..there's still the discussion that's been held here many times before about 'unnecessary deaths'. Off course it's sad for relatives...but numbers are still showing that the vast majority of the deaths would have happened anyway, with or without Covid. But let's not get into that again for the forums sake

I fully support the type of measures @chez is talking about but that does not come as a surprise for many of you.

If you can’t recognise the need to be proactive then i have nothing more to add to the conversation. I will finish saying that death happens to us all. There is very little compelling evidence to say that those dying of Covid would have done so anyway with that immediacy. The death statistics simply do not make that correlation. It is very sad for the relatives, I can definitely confirm that. Good luck. I hope you look after yourself and those around you. I worry about that. You have potential super spreader written through your posts like a stick of rock.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

On the darker side of lockdowns.. obesity through the roof, alcoholism, drug abuse, depression, mass unemployment, businesses closing at an alarming rate, levels of unthinkable worldwide hunger in the poorer parts of the globe

Surely some of that is down to precise rules of lockdown and how it's managed? Even in the strictest lockdown, governments should be doing everything they can to keep food supply moving. Also there are people who've used their lockdown time to do positive things.

 

[chez]

Surely some of that is down to precise rules of lockdown and how it's managed? Even in the strictest lockdown, governments should be doing everything they can to keep food supply moving. Also there are people who've used their lockdown time to do positive things.

Yeah mate very valid point , we did lots of work on the house to keep us busy and started learning Spanish but some of our friends / assosiates for instance are looking like shit to be honest. No nightclubs or holidays to say keep looking good for has seemed to give some a seriously unhealthy attitude which is worrying. And your totally right the lockdown can be what you make of it but unfortunately not everyone has that drive of I cant go out so let's make light of a dark time. Going clubbing is a great example of peoples expression and release, if your single, no clubs, no football, no nothing really a takeaway and a heavy sesh indoors is about a good as its going to get

Really is dark days for alot

 

[2H76]

It’s about being proactive this time as opposed reactive last time. Infection rates are doubling every 7 days here. We need to get on the front foot. Surely you recognise that? As a centrist I would not advocate civil liberties being relaxed unless it was a absolutely necessary. Unfortunately it is absolutely necessary imo. If we don’t, hundreds of thousands of deaths will happen unnecessarily.

The case rises started over a month ago. There should be a corresponding rise of deaths now after the "lag".
There isn't. It's flatlining.

 

[2H76]

The average number of deaths over the last week in Spain is around 100. At the height of the pandemic that number was around 800/day; yet there have been far more confirmed cases recently than in March/April.

 

[4tothefloor]

The case rises started over a month ago. There should be a corresponding rise of deaths now after the "lag".
There isn't. It's flatlining.

No it’s not. It’s increasing. And you are comparing apples and pears. The much derided testing is leading to many more positive diagnosis’, as is the number of young people contracting it compared with the peak. Positive tests are doubling every 7 days, week on week death rates are increasing, hospitalisations are increasing and icu admissions are increasing. Testing at the peak was very small compared to now. That is why deaths and positive cases don’t correspond with stats at the peak. That is the reality. You can dress it up however you want. If we don’t make significant interventions now we will see hundreds of deaths a day again very soon, and probably will regardless. I know folk don’t want interventions, lockdowns or loss of civil rights, but it’s essential that we learn from lockdown 1, listen to the medical experts and follow instructions.

 

[4tothefloor]

The average number of deaths over the last week in Spain is around 100. At the height of the pandemic that number was around 800/day; yet there have been far more confirmed cases recently than in March/April.

Testing.

 

[2H76]

No it’s not. It’s increasing. And you are comparing apples and pears. The much derided testing is leading to many more positive diagnosis’, as is the number of young people contracting it compared with the peak. Positive tests are doubling every 7 days, week on week death rates are increasing, hospitalisations are increasing and icu admissions are increasing. Testing at the peak was very small compared to now. That is why deaths and positive cases don’t correspond with stats at the peak. That is the reality. You can dress it up however you want. If we do t make significant interventions now we will see hundreds of deaths a day again very soon, and probably will regardless. I know folk don’t want interventions, lockdowns or loss of civil rights, but it’s essential that we learn from lockdown 1, listen to the medical experts and follow instructions.

This is confusing me. You say that there are a massive number of tests now, explaining the recent rises, but we have to make interventions based on that we are seeing more with covid due to testing (when if we'd tested more earlier, at the peak, the mumber could be in the 100's of thousands so todays figures would seem insignificant).
You also say deaths, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are increasing. Where? And by how much?
All I can find is admissions have hit the highest level in two months, doubling from very few to slightly more than very few in the last 8 days, yet this summer we've been down the pubs, out of the country, started playing sport, mixing in large groups and all the rest of it.

England coronavirus hospital admissions hit highest level since July

Hospital admissions for coronavirus patients in England have hit their highest levels for more than two months, new figures show.

www.standard.co.uk

As for deaths.... https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

 

[Hally]

This is confusing me. You say that there are a massive number of tests now, explaining the recent rises, but we have to make interventions based on that we are seeing more with covid due to testing (when if we'd tested more earlier, at the peak, the mumber could be in the 100's of thousands so todays figures would seem insignificant).
You also say deaths, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are increasing. Where? And by how much?

Admissions with (and because of) Covid to hospital and to ICU are increasing in Birmingham. How much? Enough to worry me

 

[2H76]

Admissions with (and because of) Covid to hospital and to ICU are increasing in Birmingham. How much? Enough to worry me

From 7 to 15. If you are worried, fair enough, especially if you have elderly family; but anyone worried just needs to keep to the script - no gatherings, masks, keep apart. Someone with covid can't pass it on to you if you're nowhere near them?

 

[Hally]

From 7 to 15. If you are worried, fair enough, especially if you have elderly family; but anyone worried just needs to keep to the script - no gatherings, masks, keep apart. Someone with covid can't pass it on to you if you're nowhere near them?

From 7 to 15?

I'm worried because I dont want to go through what I went through in March and April again. I dont think it will come to that but like most of my colleagues I'm pretty scarred