☣ Coronavirus ☣

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2H76 said:
From 7 to 15. If you are worried, fair enough, especially if you have elderly family; but anyone worried just needs to keep to the script - no gatherings, masks, keep apart. Someone with covid can't pass it on to you if you're nowhere near them?
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But that is the problem, some people aren’t. They did en masse, they aren’t now and haven’t been for a while. It needs enforcing. Add schools, colleges and universities returning, add work places reopening, add more sport with spectators - it’s a time bomb. We have to see around corners and take the initiative to be proactive and not reactive. Short term pain for medium term gain. I’d sooner take a three week lockdown now than a three month lockdown from the end of October, wouldn’t you? I am not saying lockdown is what is needed, I am giving an example and hoping by intervening more now we can avoid a hard lockdown.

To contradict myself, a prolonged hard lockdown world wide with travel restrictions is a real solution but there is no way the UN would be able to galvanise all nations. Frankly the UN and WHO have been utterly useless. I doubt the world wide population would accept it anyway. But that is the only way to truly be rid of it.
 
2H76 said:
This is confusing me. You say that there are a massive number of tests now, explaining the recent rises, but we have to make interventions based on that we are seeing more with covid due to testing (when if we'd tested more earlier, at the peak, the mumber could be in the 100's of thousands so todays figures would seem insignificant).
You also say deaths, hospitalisations and ICU admissions are increasing. Where? And by how much?
All I can find is admissions have hit the highest level in two months, doubling from very few to slightly more than very few in the last 8 days, yet this summer we've been down the pubs, out of the country, started playing sport, mixing in large groups and all the rest of it.
www.standard.co.uk

England coronavirus hospital admissions hit highest level since July

Hospital admissions for coronavirus patients in England have hit their highest levels for more than two months, new figures show.
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk
As for deaths.... https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths
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We are testing up to 250k a day in the UK. And it’s still not enough. The demand for testing is the first clue

With limited testing we saw 40k people die of this in the UK in wave 1.

You have answered your own questions. It’s about looking at the trends, looking ahead, learning from wave 1, being proactive and stopping wave 2 being anywhere near as damaging.
 
4tothefloor said:
But that is the problem, some people aren’t. They did en masse, they aren’t now and haven’t been for a while. It needs enforcing. Add schools, colleges and universities returning, add work places reopening, add more sport with spectators - it’s a time bomb. We have to see around corners and take the initiative to be proactive and not reactive. Short term pain for medium term gain. I’d sooner take a three week lockdown now than a three month lockdown from the end of October, wouldn’t you? I am not saying lockdown is what is needed, I am giving an example and hoping by intervening more now we can avoid a hard lockdown.

To contradict myself, a prolonged hard lockdown world wide with travel restrictions is a real solution but there is no way the UN would be able to galvanise all nations. Frankly the UN and WHO have been utterly useless. I doubt the world wide population would accept it anyway. But that is the only way to truly be rid of it.
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If we're gonna have a lockdown, then I'd much rather have a short, sharp shock of 2/3 weeks total lockdown, movement for emergencies only, than this current chaotic organisation. No way am I saying a total lockdown is necessary, but if anyone thinks it will work then go ahead and do it.
BUT I want absolute assurances from the government that after the three weeks we go back to near-normal, whatever the numbers (unless deaths go sky high) and that INCLUDES the freedom to fly and return from Europe without quarantining.
If we get that freedom back it might be worth having 3 wks lockdown every three months to keep a lid on it - if it works.
But FFS can we bin this ridiculous system we have now. I can't go into town to the pub, it's under lockdown and the pubs are shut. I can walk one mile to my right and be in a pub in 20 minutes.
But if today's measures, and any kind of increased lockdown don't work, then what??
 
4tothefloor said:
We are testing up to 250k a day in the UK. And it’s still not enough. The demand for testing is the first clue

With limited testing we saw 40k people die of this in the UK in wave 1.

You have answered your own questions. It’s about looking at the trends, looking ahead, learning from wave 1, being proactive and stopping wave 2 being anywhere near as damaging.
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The trends for deaths are very low. No sign of any increase in line with confirmed cases.
 
2H76 said:
If we're gonna have a lockdown, then I'd much rather have a short, sharp shock of 2/3 weeks total lockdown, movement for emergencies only, than this current chaotic organisation. No way am I saying a total lockdown is necessary, but if anyone thinks it will work then go ahead and do it.
BUT I want absolute assurances from the government that after the three weeks we go back to near-normal, whatever the numbers (unless deaths go sky high) and that INCLUDES the freedom to fly and return from Europe without quarantining.
If we get that freedom back it might be worth having 3 wks lockdown every three months to keep a lid on it - if it works.
But FFS can we bin this ridiculous system we have now. I can't go into town to the pub, it's under lockdown and the pubs are shut. I can walk one mile to my right and be in a pub in 20 minutes.
But if today's measures, and any kind of increased lockdown don't work, then what??
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I don’t think you are a million miles away from what could be the solution. I think it will be a softer lockdown than before. They could also maintain the localised interventions. I think what we are wrong now in the north could be an ongoing thing and move around the country with interventions being used like hungry hippos(!) wherever a spike emerges.

I don’t know what you mean about pubs. In areas where there is a local spike they will shut at10pm. A line has to be draw somewhere. There is no point restricting opening where there is no need, that would be an unnecessary infringement on civil liberties. In other areas they will continue as they are now.
 
4tothefloor said:
I don’t think you are a million miles away from what could be the solution. I think it will be a softer lockdown than before. They could also maintain the localised interventions. I think what we are wrong now in the north could be an ongoing thing and move around the country with interventions being used like hungry hippos(!) wherever a spike emerges.

I don’t know what you mean about pubs. In areas where there is a local spike they will shut at10pm. A line has to be draw somewhere. There is no point restricting opening where there is no need, that would be an unnecessary infringement on civil liberties. In other areas they will continue as they are now.
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To clarify the pubs, in Bolton they are all shut, forced because of local lockdown, the most stringent in the UK since July 4th,. But we can go to the next town, and drink in pubs as much as we like (although next week that will be until 10pm).
 
I'm too tired of the same old discussion and being framed as a potential superspreader because I look at the current facts instead of fear for possible outcomes so for now I mostly suffice with liking the replies I agree with. And I'll do what I was told to do here: I'll agree to disagree.

But I'll add this to the discussion....what Sweden is doing right and what it has always done right imo, it has decided to learn to live with the virus instead of trying to lock it down only to let it escape again once you lift the lid a little. Like society is supposed to do with problems that come our way. We live with it. Even if death is a part of it, cause...we die. Especially old and weak people, unfortunately they die.
Lockdowns are short-term fixes and this is gonna be here for the long-term. Multiple lockdowns, closing cities again and theyr businesses. It's destructive and does more damage than good. At this point in time the doctors know better how to treat the virus, ICU stay is down to about a week, death rate is low everywhere (even if it more than last month in some countries...it's still low). We're not in a second wave, it's hardly a second bump (perhaps in a small amount of places worldwide it's more than a bump, but still not a second wave). The time is right to do what Sweden has always done; live with the virus, protect the vulnerable and elderly as much as possible until they get their vaccine and in the meanwhile the youth can get their immunity.

The nasty catch of this development is that the people that are critical about the measures will always be wrong...if the death rate stays as low as it is now (what I expect)...in a few weeks politicians (and perhaps some of you here) will say: See what we did? Our second lockdown / rule of 6 / new measures helped keep the death rate low. If the death rate goes up despite the measures, than the critical group and the youngsters that didn't obey the rules earlier will get the blame in hindsight. If I'm wrong about the death rate staying roughly the same as it is now and we are indeed in for a second wave we should at least partly blame the governments for not listening to loads of scientists about the risks of aerosols indoors, ventilation, isolating foster homes. Or for closing up all bars, pubs and events thus pushing youngsters into illegal raves, home parties and other non-regulated events.

And for the people that count this as conspiracy thinking or covid denying: Nobody here is denying that covid19 is an issue and measures were necessary earlier. But we are now in a phase were balance and equal attention to other problems that come from the measures and other conditions in our society. That's just common sense.
 
2H76 said:
To clarify the pubs, in Bolton they are all shut, forced because of local lockdown, the most stringent in the UK since July 4th,. But we can go to the next town, and drink in pubs as much as we like (although next week that will be until 10pm).
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I must say I do love (and hate) the crazynes of the rules. Apparently the virus now has an eye for the clock...because in the Netherlands bars will close at 01.00 o clock in six regions (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague amongst them) Lights go on and music goes out an hour earlier. Apparently that helps too. The youngsters will have early afterparties from this weekend on or will just go to different regions in the country indeed.
Oh and if the same boys and girls play sports together in daytime, they are allowed to have physical contact so it seems the virus only comes out when you're partying, drinking or having fun.

Also, the max of groups together in a public space has been halved again. It was 30...went to 100 a few weeks ago and is now 50.
Unless if you are in a church or at a funeral, because.... ?‍♂️

Oh and demonstrations are fine too. No max amount of people. Well they have to be about BLM or the climate by example...cause if its about these crazy rules the police will strike you down and the newspapers will call you Covid deniers and conspiracy theorists.
 
2H76 said:
To clarify the pubs, in Bolton they are all shut, forced because of local lockdown, the most stringent in the UK since July 4th,. But we can go to the next town, and drink in pubs as much as we like (although next week that will be until 10pm).
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Ok. I didn’t realise pubs were shut completely anywhere. I thought localised interventions allowed pubs to open until 10, but clearly not. Bolton isn’t in a good state, is it? I heard it’s got the worst numbers in the country. I guess the line has to be drawn somewhere otherwise people will face restrictions unnecessarily. The whole freedom of movement thing needs addressing though. It kind of proves the point if people are simply going to the town next door.

Stay safe mate.
 
2H76 said:
The average number of deaths over the last week in Spain is around 100. At the height of the pandemic that number was around 800/day; yet there have been far more confirmed cases recently than in March/April.
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The reason for the need to control the virus spread is to have enough available ICU beds for everyone who needs them (otherwise deaths will skyrocket, plus it would be a very uncomfortable situation ethically).

Due to the long incubation time, any action we take now will only show its effect in about 2 weeks. So we have to act early. The earlier one acts, the less are the restrictions we will have to endure. I am sure no one liked months-long lockdowns in the Spring, so not sure why there is opposition to the current, rather mild, measures. These measures, if successful, will prevent full lockdowns, not facilitate them!
 
tclubber said:
The reason for the need to control the virus spread is to have enough available ICU beds for everyone who needs them (otherwise deaths will skyrocket, plus it would be a very uncomfortable situation ethically).

Due to the long incubation time, any action we take now will only show its effect in about 2 weeks. So we have to act early. The earlier one acts, the less are the restrictions we will have to endure. I am sure no one liked months-long lockdowns in the Spring, so not sure why there is opposition to the current, rather mild, measures. These measures, if successful, will prevent full lockdowns, not facilitate them!
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I have heard the 2 weeks sentence for 12 weeks now...and it hasn't happened. Not after mass BLM demo's, not after lots of summer days in the Netherlands where no one kept their distance, not after bars reopening, not after schools reopening, not after the holiday period.
Why would it be different now?

Also...I'm not sure what you're calling mild measures. Event industry is dying. Airlines are dying. Tourism is dying. Young people have psychical problems. Unemployment rates are only starting to show but it will be bad. Bars and restaurants were just recovering a bit, doing what they could do to adhere to the rules, sometimes spending a lot of money on adjustments only to be closed up again now or to be saddled up with even more confusing (and silly) rules. I would not call anything that's going on now mild or doable. If you compare it with the hardest lockdown in Spain and Italy...yeah maybe than this is mild, but still devastating for loads of people.
 
The huge plus side in the reduction in flights is the environment and climate. Flying has become far too cheap and easy and we’ve all seen the impact. The fact many airlines were on the edge of bankruptcy the last few years says it all. Giving planet earth a few years recovery is no bad thing.

it also forced many airlines to retire hugely inefficient 30 year old aircraft

The fact @craig72 can fly from Dublin to Ibiza cheaper than his bus to the airport says it all.
 
ElrowLovers said:
I have heard the 2 weeks sentence for 12 weeks now...and it hasn't happened. Not after mass BLM demo's, not after lots of summer days in the Netherlands where no one kept their distance
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This means outdoor meetings are not dangerous, at least without people mingling with each other too much. All numbers so far point to this conclusion.

Pretty much all known outbreaks happened either during indoor family meetings, or other indoor parties/meetings with people singing or mingling together. That's what needs to be controlled somehow.

not after bars reopening, not after schools reopening, not after the holiday period.
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Maybe it has something to do with masks being worn? ;)

Why would it be different now?
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Don't know why exactly, but cases are on the rise, ICU admission numbers are on the rise (in Vienna, some ICU units are full, I just read). Deaths will be on the rise too, don't worry about that. People just take longer to die when in intensive care.

Unemployment rates are only starting to show but it will be bad. Bars and restaurants were just recovering a bit, doing what they could do to adhere to the rules, sometimes spending a lot of money
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Bars and restaurants should blame the population of the country for not doing enough against covid-19 and thus putting them into this situation. The event industry should have received government help, I find it outrageous that it didn't happen.

Here in Germany, bars are open, restaurants are open, shops are open, hotels are open, new cases are barely on the rise (certainly nothing like the numbers we see in Spain or France). Since we certainly don't have herd immunity here and our testing frequency is better than average, I suppose the reason for the difference is that people are behaving better and taking the virus a little more seriously here, and thus we are rewarded with a better working economy. Sorry if this sounds harsh.
 
tclubber said:
This means outdoor meetings are not dangerous, at least without people mingling with each other too much. All numbers so far point to this conclusion.

Pretty much all known outbreaks happened either during indoor family meetings, or other indoor parties/meetings with people singing or mingling together. That's what needs to be controlled somehow.


Maybe it has something to do with masks being worn? ;)


Don't know why exactly, but cases are on the rise, ICU admission numbers are on the rise (in Vienna, some ICU units are full, I just read). Deaths will be on the rise too, don't worry about that. People just take longer to die when in intensive care.


Bars and restaurants should blame the population of the country for not doing enough against covid-19 and thus putting them into this situation. The event industry should have received government help, I find it outrageous that it didn't happen.

Here in Germany, bars are open, restaurants are open, shops are open, hotels are open, new cases are barely on the rise (certainly nothing like the numbers we see in Spain or France). Since we certainly don't have herd immunity here and our testing frequency is better than average, I suppose the reason for the difference is that people are behaving better and taking the virus a little more seriously here, and thus we are rewarded with a better working economy. Sorry if this sounds harsh.
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- Agreed on the outdoor situation, yet most governments still do NOTHING with that knowledge.
- No masks indoor in the Netherlands, only in public transport.
- The latest info about intensive care units (here) is that more and more people leave them alive and that the length of their stay is way shorter.
- Because of the bullet above, I sincerely doubt death rate will be on the rise too, but we'll see.
- Agreed on the event industry being neglected by governments worldwide, it's ridiculous.
- Does not sound harsh, no worries, but I'm not sure if Germany will end up with a better working economy than other Eu countries in the end. But I definitely grant you that if that's the case. I'll probably visit Berlin in a few weeks so I'm curious to see how people are behaving.

Thanks for the substantive reply :)
 
Springal said:
The huge plus side in the reduction in flights is the environment and climate. Flying has become far too cheap and easy and we’ve all seen the impact. The fact many airlines were on the edge of bankruptcy the last few years says it all. Giving planet earth a few years recovery is no bad thing.

it also forced many airlines to retire hugely inefficient 30 year old aircraft

The fact @craig72 can fly from Dublin to Ibiza cheaper than his bus to the airport says it all.
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The huge downside of it is hundreds of thousands people losing their aviation jobs, having to sell their houses where they are raising their kids in, looking for another job that isn't easy to be found because of the economy dying.
 
Think in tomorrows Sunday Mail (may have been in today, I try to avoid it) there's an article suggesting Oxford scientists believe/have proved that 1/3 of covid deaths are simply those that died with covid, not of it, such as cancer or even car accidents.

Nothing we didn't assume already, that the figures banded around r/e deaths are questionable. If figures for infections rise, then so will deaths - with covid, not necessarily of covid.

If you are poorly already and your systems are weak, you may well be infected much easier, yet it's the original case that causes death, covid is merely a bystander. Why can't they be honest with us??
 
2H76 said:
Think in tomorrows Sunday Mail (may have been in today, I try to avoid it) there's an article suggesting Oxford scientists believe/have proved that 1/3 of covid deaths are simply those that died with covid, not of it, such as cancer or even car accidents.

Nothing we didn't assume already, that the figures banded around r/e deaths are questionable. If figures for infections rise, then so will deaths - with covid, not necessarily of covid.

If you are poorly already and your systems are weak, you may well be infected much easier, yet it's the original case that causes death, covid is merely a bystander. Why can't they be honest with us??
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Very true! Also they are delaying treatments for cancer, operations etc then people will die because they did not get the operation or treatment they needed due to being delayed due to covid19
 
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