☣ Coronavirus ☣

[FlatErik]

Just to make sure we're on the same page...my rant was not about herd immunity. I mentioned it yes.
But my rant is about the governments that have changed from deaths and ICU capacity to positive PCR tests to base their restrictions on.

In the Netherlands...and a lot of countries in Europe you could say the pandemic is statistically over or at least a lot less dangerous so no reason to keep the restrictions in place any longer:

 

[MrHullMysterious]

I think once we hit end of December, governments will have better idea of the lay of the land. If not been many hospitalizations/deaths, then they'll probs ease a lot of stuff into the spring and almost back to normal imho.

They are bricking it in case winter throws something like April our way again.

 

[Hally]

I think once we hit end of December, governments will have better idea of the lay of the land. If not been many hospitalizations/deaths, then they'll probs ease a lot of stuff into the spring and almost back to normal imho.

They are bricking it in case winter throws something like April our way again.

I think that is it in a nutshell.

 

[craig72]

Ha ha I would have been too but it was no charge for me for some reason!! ??

They picked you.. your fckd mate....

 

[stivi]

Just to make sure we're on the same page...my rant was not about herd immunity. I mentioned it yes.
But my rant is about the governments that have changed from deaths and ICU capacity to positive PCR tests to base their restrictions on.

In the Netherlands...and a lot of countries in Europe you could say the pandemic is statistically over or at least a lot less dangerous so no reason to keep the restrictions in place any longer:

View attachment 10205

here in spain the deciding point is hospitalisation and ICU occupancy, not positive PCRs. and I think that makes sense. flattening the curve was always to make sure the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed.

 

[FlatErik]

here in spain the deciding point is hospitalisation and ICU occupancy, not positive PCRs. and I think that makes sense. flattening the curve was always to make sure the health care system doesn't get overwhelmed.

Yeah I've seen the numbers in Spain and it looks like an exception, because in the rest of Europe the hospitalization and ICU numbers are staying behind.

 

[FlatErik]

Current hospitalization number in the Netherlands: 95
ICU number: 28
Daily new infections: 500-600 (has been like this for weeks, so stable...and no indication of a second wave)

The curve is flat as it can be. But restrictions still in place and even tightened. ?
Dutch politicians are not even mentioning the curve anymore...all they talk about is "the vaccin".

 

[Twentynine]

WRONG.

the balearic president mentioned ibz town and san an as possible areas where some of those mentioned measures might be put in place if contagion rate doesn't improve.

I'm sorry but the way you put it, it's just not correct. A. it's not a done thing yet and B. as McR said the details of the measures aren't defined yet and possibly not all of them come into place at the same time.

Sorry for being slow Stivi, but just want to make sure I get this right (we are in Ibiza now and contemplating whether to leave early): what is actually happening on Monday? Are they not introducing these new measures in Ibiza Town?

 

[gutsy]

Damn it, you where getting my Hope's up. ?

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Edit: wow, Sweden's guy said yeah ok for 10% of the elderly to die if it works..

Sweden's Covid-19 strategist under fire over herd immunity emails

Anders Tegnell appears to have asked if higher death rate for older people might be acceptable

www.theguardian.com

?

Angry to the Swedish fella. Can’t believe some people’s way of thinking.

 

[tclubber]

But my rant is about the governments that have changed from deaths and ICU capacity to positive PCR tests to base their restrictions on.

The problem with deaths as a metric is that it is delayed by like 4-5 weeks (1-2 weeks incubation time, plus several weeks for ill patients to actually die). You can not really base the policy on deaths for that reason - when you actually see too many deaths, it is already too late to react.

The ICU capacity is supposed to be part of the equation. Not sure how other countries handle it, but the German limit of 50 new cases/100.000 people/week was indeed based on the available ICU capacity.

I hope (although I don't have too much hope) that they are reviewing limits based on the actual ICU usage vs. predictions. Because as you pointed out, the test coverage gets better and better. For example, in Germany right now, we have 15K active cases, but only 228 "serious" ones. Which means only 1.5% of all cases are serious - this figure used to be like 5-10% in the beginning of the pandemic!

Nevertheless, even if the current infection numbers are not that dangerous (the number of infections doubles only every 2-3 weeks, as opposed to every 3 days back in March), the growth needs to be stopped. So better react early and try various measures - this will help avoid another full lockdown. It's unfortunate that tourism regions are hit so hard, but their residents have no one to blame but themselves - reportedly, most infection clusters on the Balearics are not related to tourism and the virus mostly spreads through family meetings and the like.

 

[stivi]

Sorry for being slow Stivi, but just want to make sure I get this right (we are in Ibiza now and contemplating whether to leave early): what is actually happening on Monday? Are they not introducing these new measures in Ibiza Town?

by tomorrow we should know more - at the moment it is just 'options' to reduce contagion, NOTHING has actually been decided yet

 

[Twentynine]

I really don’t want to stick my hand into the hornet’s nest, and for the record I am not Swedish, but I work on a daily basis with Swedish companies and thought I might offer some perspective: everyone I have spoken to in Sweden have been fully supportive of their government‘s handling of the situation. Their way of life is almost the same as pre-Covid: no restrictions on movement, no quarantine when returning from abroad, no forced masks, etc. This week I spoke to a Swedish guy who, when he heard I was in Ibiza, asked “how on earth do the Spanish accept being locked in their homes for long periods of time and forced to wear masks outdoors?“. I didn’t really have a good answer for him...

 

[McRackin]

we are in Ibiza now and contemplating whether to leave early

 

[Browny]

Flights to the mainland getting cancelled for remainder of ‘summer’

 

[FlatErik]

Current hospitalization number in the Netherlands: 95
ICU number: 28
Daily new infections: 500-600 (has been like this for weeks, so stable...and no indication of a second wave)

The curve is flat as it can be. But restrictions still in place and even tightened. ?
Dutch politicians are not even mentioning the curve anymore...all they talk about is "the vaccin".

Also troubling news here with those daily new 'infections'...wich are not infections per definition at all but merely positive PCR tests (see NY times article)....thousands of people are faking symptoms to get tested because they have a upcoming wedding, funeral, holiday, new job etc. Test capacity is flooded and if you read the NY times article you can see that with more testing the numbers go up anyway, even if those numbers are not actual infections / contagious people.

 

[craig72]

Come on Ireland..

 

[Twentynine]

Haha I like the spirit, but if they announce a police-state confinement tomorrow or over the weekend, we (and any sensible people) will be getting the hell outta Dodge

 

[McRackin]

police-state confinement

 

[craig72]

It's been awhile

https://imgur.com/OGoyGv5

 

[Bakerman]

Crazy what happening out there... ? I won't say #Staysafe to you.. but so much shit happening there you will have to be fckn Strong..?

It's been long and pretty boring but I've kept positive with the fact me and the mrs are still working and the majority of lockdown so far was in winter.
The 8pm curfew hasn't really been an issue since there's nothing open anyway. It's the small businesses I worry for, news coming on Sunday regarding the roadmap out of lockdown but any sort of social gatherings in pubs and restaurants will have to see a lot lower numbers than we have now. At least with the weather getting better, boozing in the park or at the beach will be a lifesaver!

Well done on the effort. Keep it up. What are the infection rates like now? Do you think the government is feeling political pressure to eradicate it to the same extent as New Zealand?

7 day average is going the right direction but it's not happened as quick as we would like. Todays numbers were 81 new cases and 59 deaths however some of those deaths are from previous weeks which were misreported. I'm hoping we get down to single figures next week. Official end date of the current lockdown is 14th September however i reckon the path out will be slower than the path in, pretty frustrating as stage 3 isnt much different from stage 4. The pressure is starting to be applied to the premier as people are getting fed up of not knowing whats ahead but I reckon he's done a good job so far and 99% of the people have been following the rules which has been good. Any dissent has been from the usual sources.

I've had flights to ibiza in April cancelled and also flights back for xmas cancelled, hoping to get back in April but who knows when this will end!