stivi
Well-Known Member
uh-huh...so what's your assumption then Dr Cliche?
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uh-huh...so what's your assumption then Dr Cliche?
Thomas Cliche
Active Member
Don't take it personnal, it's not your own article. I'm not a Dr of course (just a stupid commercial litigation lawyer), but just look at the Swedish numbers and you can easily see that those projections dont make sense (900 000 lives save in France ?, no way!).
stivi
Well-Known Member
I am not taking it personal at all. I'm also not defending the article, I was simply curious as to why you thought it's BS.
re sweden - keep in mind this model takes numbers into account until 4th may only (over a month ago now). now they're at 4500 or so deaths.
I'm not trying to say this article is the truth, I've simply added it to the thread as it's info material and wondered why you had this reaction.
Thomas Cliche
Active Member
I'm just pissed at our politicians right now. I dont think all this is a conspiracy (COVID 19 is for real), but our Western politicians all stressed out and over react big time in March, ending up doing way, way, way to much to protect those who did'nt need much help (active population) and in a realy stupid way not enough to protect those that would have needed more (oldies). Here in Quebec 85 % of our COVID 19 deaths are 75 years old or older living in homes for the elderly (who sufferd from lack of funds, employees and safety mesures). At the same time, all of my friends could'nt open their restaurants and bars (still cant do it today) and many will face bankruptcy this year (who cares about bar and restaurant anyway? that's how politicians are thinking...). What's even more stupid, politicians cant admit they went too far, so they are pushing their restrictions further, now clearly liying to populations. We would need better politicians (not the worse of every professions ending up there).
soulcompromise
Active Member
I'm with you on the oldies... I felt like they were really vulnerable too. Mostly because of people ignoring social distancing norms, but I get what you're saying.
I have a different perspective of the lockdown. I see it as a springboard for change, but I realize that the business owners are starving and going homeless. What does it take for social change to happen? Some say it requires rebellion. I feel like some things may change, but whether or not it's for the best is probably open to interpretation.
CasaNegron
Well-Known Member
Interesting. By the time we fully understand this, nobody will care anymore...
tclubber
Active Member
Of course they overreacted in March. And the reason for that overreacting was that they acted too late.
Because of the time wasted earlier, the measures taken in March had to work on the very first attempt - there was no time left to try something, measure the effect and then improve if needed. And to ensure the measures working on the very first attempt, there was a massive overkill, sure.
Had the politicians not dragged their feet back in January-February, they could have started by closing borders and banning mass events back in January. This would have slowed the infection rate down and would have bought time for a softer approach. This is exactly what Asian countries did that everyone is now envious of - e. g. Taiwan put some measures in place before there was a single coronavirus case in the country.
But with infection numbers doubling every 3 days, any effect of measures only showing up in 2 weeks, and a totally overwhelmed health care being just 2-3 weeks away, this opportunity no longer existed, so they had to go for the hammer.
Of course had the politicians reacted early enough, they would have been blasted for curtailing our freedoms without an urgent need to. That's the tricky part when fighting a pandemy - when the need to react becomes "urgent", it's already too late for soft measures.
The good thing is, it seems we will get an Ibiza season this year thanks to that overreacting. The original hope was to just flatten the curve so that the health care system wouldn't get overwhelmed, but now we are on a good way to eradicating the virus (even in the unlikely event no vaccine becomes available). New Zealand is covid-free now, Iceland has just 3 sick people, and numbers in most of Europe are way better than we could dream of back in March.
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MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
I can understand why you would think that from your subsequent posts, but maybe look at Brazil as an example:
They've had limited lockdown (president Bolsonaro tried to prevent them but districts did them anyhow) and their numbers of reported positive deaths is high, even with _extremely_ low testing rates, so the true number is a lot worse. Additionally they are still on the up slope, which is probably why one reason Bolsonaro has got them to stop publishing total deaths etc.
Even with limited lockdown and now returning to "normality" of fully opened economy, things are not great. If people are dying and suffering all over the place it hurts economic confidence.
New Zealand on the other hand actually did lockdown early and had massive economic pain but over a shorter period and got on top of this and now can return to a proper "normal".
The western governments dithered and so we are stuck in a no mans land of not full lockdown but not normality for the foreseeable.
As for it's just the oldies protect them and let rest live normally, we've had that debate about how it's very difficult to do that. My point would be to remind everyone, if you get it with symptoms, its _not_ guaranteed to be a little cold. It can be massively debilitating to young normally healthy people. My friend who was 29 when got it a month ago now, still gets completely out of breath climbing the stairs. He was fit and healthy beforehand.
All in all it's a shit show. Let's hope the predictions of 40 million+ deaths (without any interventions) doesn't come true. India is releasing it lockdowns (probs for good economic reasons), but hospitals in Delhi are swamped ?
?
naomih
Member
I saw this Latmun Played ! I think there was something like 40 people there. I thought it actually looked pretty class :')So has anyone seen the story that a socially distanced rave was allowed to take place somewhere near Nottingham? It was outdoor so it was probably completely safe but i don't understand how something that so clearly breaks the rules was allowed. The council gave them permission in advance and when the police arrived they showed the documents so were allowed to continue, apparently social distancing was being adhered to.
I have no worries that this happening isn't really a problem it's just how did they get away with something that is clearly not in keeping with the guidelines, the council could have easily said no and i doubt the party organiser would have even contested it.
I think it's now safe to think that outdoor events are about as safe as you can get now.. Fingers crossed for some outdoor events to be allow on the island to start with
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
There is a suggestion that pubs could open 22nd June in the UK, (with 2 metre social distancing rules). Apparently government is bricking it, that if leave it too late lots of jobs will be lost.
Nevermind that most pubs wouldn't be able to function/break even with social distancing regs. Some want it reducing to 1 metre rule instead, which imho is asking for trouble especially with drunk people?
Nevermind that most pubs wouldn't be able to function/break even with social distancing regs. Some want it reducing to 1 metre rule instead, which imho is asking for trouble especially with drunk people?
chez
Active Member
I'm glad it was a success, definitely gives hope.. also seen clips looked like everyone was enjoying it
FlatErik
Well-Known Member
Exactly what I've been saying about the situation here in the Netherlands too Thomas.
Most countries did way too much to lock up the people that didn't really need it, scaring them through the mainstream media with one or two really rare deadly case in that younger category. They are destroying their businesses and joy in life, thus lowering life expectancy in that category.
And they did too little to protect the group that actually did need it, the elderly, by allowing visitors in their nursing homes for too long and lowering life expectancy in that category too.
It's insane. And now people still get fines because they don't follow the 1.5 metre distance from each other in a park on a sunny day while 10.000 people can do a BLM demonstration on the Dam Square in Amsterdam? People are done with the social distancing measures here. It's not natural, it goes against all normal feelings we have as human beings. When I see people nowadays, I'm ready to give them a hand and a hug if they feel like it. I'll keep a distance from them if they want it and im still keeping distance from the elderly. But as for the rest....looking at the dutch numbers and most of Europes numbers....Covid19 is pretty much gone for now. I know it will still be with us or can come back...but keep waiting in semi-lockdown, not really living until there is a vaccin sounds ridiculous to me.
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Digital2013
Well-Known Member
I can understand why you would think that from your subsequent posts, but maybe look at Brazil as an example:
They've had limited lockdown (president Bolsonaro tried to prevent them but districts did them anyhow) and their numbers of reported positive deaths is high, even with _extremely_ low testing rates, so the true number is a lot worse. Additionally they are still on the up slope, which is probably why one reason Bolsonaro has got them to stop publishing total deaths etc.
Even with limited lockdown and now returning to "normality" of fully opened economy, things are not great. If people are dying and suffering all over the place it hurts economic confidence.
New Zealand on the other hand actually did lockdown early and had massive economic pain but over a shorter period and got on top of this and now can return to a proper "normal".
The western governments dithered and so we are stuck in a no mans land of not full lockdown but not normality for the foreseeable.
As for it's just the oldies protect them and let rest live normally, we've had that debate about how it's very difficult to do that. My point would be to remind everyone, if you get it with symptoms, its _not_ guaranteed to be a little cold. It can be massively debilitating to young normally healthy people. My friend who was 29 when got it a month ago now, still gets completely out of breath climbing the stairs. He was fit and healthy beforehand.
All in all it's a shit show. Let's hope the predictions of 40 million+ deaths (without any interventions) doesn't come true. India is releasing it lockdowns (probs for good economic reasons), but hospitals in Delhi are swamped ?
Important to note very different landscapes, populations and medical capacity though. New Zealand is a rich, mostly rural country of just 5 million on two islands with approx 1.6m living in and around Auckland the rest is pretty empty. Its also geographically isolated, people fly there specifically to go there they are not just 'passing through'
Brazil is a massive country with 210m people and of course a lot of open space and rainforests, but the difference is how tightly packed the cities are and many millions live in poverty. Almost impossible to avoid the virus if you are living many to a house with no running water and sanitation.
New Zealand Prime Minister does seem a strong leader and deserves credit for taking swift action, but each country has its own challenges.
The Sun God
Active Member
this thread at times...
ibiza77
Well-Known Member
Or get drunk
ibiza77
Well-Known Member
Here in Sweden the politicians have been selling the homes to privat companies, who only think about making money, not safety. No safely for staff or the people living there
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
The UK did that ages ago, started under Thatcher iirc.
Private business need to make a profit, but for same amount of money compared to a council ran home. Maths don't add up unfortunately.
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