☣ Coronavirus ☣

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ElrowLovers said:
Dutch newspaper just published an article about multiple 'lockdown-exit strategies' are being studied, such as a geographical exit (one area gets out while others remain lockdown for a while longer) or people staying partially locked down based on their age. Other strategies include few weeks normal life-few weeks lockdown on and off.

Anyway, the scary part of the article...to fully flatten the curve and let the virus die...all mathematical models point out it takes about 800 days.
Can you imagine lockdowns or partly lockdowns for the next 2 years!?
Perhaps all or most governments have started to try to control something that we simply can't control. The damage to society will be unreal if we continue this strategy.
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To manage this virus, most professionals will talk about two phases. 1. Containment 2. Mitigation. Containment is based on tracking the spread (testing) and isolation / quarantine of individuals to prevent community spread of the virus. Mitigation starts when there is community spread and is based on reducing the burdens of the disease rather than than stopping individual containment. Really good management can engage both strategies on a targeted basis.

Most western countries are in a Mitigation phase and exiting lock downs really are talking about shifting back to a Containment phase. South Korea is the best example of well executed containment (they never moved to true mitigation). This requires widespread and easy access to testing, with immediate results and quarantine of positive cases for 14 days (or negative test) and quarantine for contacts of positive cases (or negative test). Some social distancing remains in place with bans on large gatherings and requirement to wear a mask. Anyone who can work from home will still need to do so.

The biggest variables to this are the development of an effective treatment that reduces the burden of critical care on the health care system or a vaccine.
 
soha said:
You say sars was man made, have you any solid articles to back this up?
I'd be interested to read them
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Sorry missed a word "outbreak" from the sentence, i.e. human mishandling in research labs was involved in escapes and infections.

I do not believe that all studies in Wuhan are transparent. Given MERS and SARS were coronaviruses, both of which impacted Asia and would no doubt be of interest there, how do we know what studies were being carried out on them in Wuhan ? If a bat-originated coronavirus thought not to be a major risk was mishandled and infected a worker it could easily have developed/mutated in that person to be infectious and passed on via Patient Zero rather than via an animal host. Bat-originated coronaviruses have already been studied and found to be capable of direct transmission, and there is previous "form" for mishandling pathogens.
 
Just trying to find article from the Science magazine now ive finished work @kimajy
The one alluding to the virus starting in the US doesn't seen credible at all, from a Canadian pro-Chinese author
www.wsj.com

Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory Claims It Began in the U.S.—and Beijing Is Buying It

A Canadian writer has intensified a dispute between the U.S. and China over a fringe theory that claims the coronavirus originated in the U.S., a widely denounced assertion.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
www.google.com

Fact check: Coronavirus originated in China, not elsewhere, researchers and studies say

An article circulating on social media claims the coronavirus did not originate in China. We examine the research and rate this claim false.
www.google.com www.google.com

A pretty comprehensive piece, by a scientist, who has worked on many viruses including both coronavirus and SARS
www.google.com

How China's 'Bat Woman' Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there
www.google.com www.google.com

She does touch in whether it could have come from her lab, again one could question her account but I believe over the Romanoff
 
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