#Brexit
- Thread starter Fronty
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mashednlovingit
Well-Known Member
We are the third largest trader with the EU after China and the USA. We import more than we export to the EU.(https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx)
How is that not proper leverage? Without wishing to sound a like a cnut here have you done your research on this topic? As a caveat I have encouraged as many people as I can, irrelevant of what side you sit on, to delve into the specifics rather than sharing ludicrous meme's on social media and purely listening to what the politicians have to say.
It is within both our interests to get the deal signed. This isn't about spitting your dummy out nor approaching negotiations with arrogance (you can leave that childish behaviour at the door or on here for us to use
) this is business and will be approached with a degree of professionalism then we can all move on.
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elmooreo
Well-Known Member
Yes mate, believe me I have looked int this, like I said, what worries me is that things are getting brushed aside when in reality the relationships in question are very complex. It could take a lot longer than 2 years to negotiate, we aren't guaranteed to get a better deal, and all the while, we will be in limbo...
"Post-Brexit outcomes which reduce trade or increase the cost of trade between the UK and the rest of Europe will be damaging for both sides. The EU is a more important trade partner for the UK than the UK is for the EU. But UK demand is very important in macro terms for many EU countries. The UK runs large bilateral deficits against several member states."
"The UK is the largest recipient of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in the EU. Brexit could reduce the attractiveness of the UK as a gateway to Europe. It could also lead to a reduction in investment from the rest of the EU, which is the biggest source of FDI in the UK. It may become harder to attract corporate HQs."
"The UK has championed the single market, but outside the EU would no longer be an effective advocate of further liberalisation. UK critics often complain about EU regulatory excesses, but many regulations are intended to create the level playing field the single market requires. A paradox of UK euroscepticism is that following Brexit the UK would lose influence over EU regulation without gaining much freedom to regulate independently."
https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/si...downloads/Global Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit.pdf
"Post-Brexit outcomes which reduce trade or increase the cost of trade between the UK and the rest of Europe will be damaging for both sides. The EU is a more important trade partner for the UK than the UK is for the EU. But UK demand is very important in macro terms for many EU countries. The UK runs large bilateral deficits against several member states."
"The UK is the largest recipient of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in the EU. Brexit could reduce the attractiveness of the UK as a gateway to Europe. It could also lead to a reduction in investment from the rest of the EU, which is the biggest source of FDI in the UK. It may become harder to attract corporate HQs."
"The UK has championed the single market, but outside the EU would no longer be an effective advocate of further liberalisation. UK critics often complain about EU regulatory excesses, but many regulations are intended to create the level playing field the single market requires. A paradox of UK euroscepticism is that following Brexit the UK would lose influence over EU regulation without gaining much freedom to regulate independently."
https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/si...downloads/Global Counsel_Impact_of_Brexit.pdf
mashednlovingit
Well-Known Member
Absolutely. Trade deals are generally long and protracted events. Canada has only just finished negotiations and they started in 09! Japan is up to 4 years now and they are still top have the 16th round in September! Madness.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ss-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says
what do we think about this? im getting to the point where i cant digest any more information!
what do we think about this? im getting to the point where i cant digest any more information!
elmooreo
Well-Known Member
Yeah I saw this earlier....if we go the Germans really will be up against it in terms of fighting to keep it all together, so i'm sure we can expect more of this from key German politicians. No doubt it will be written off as scaremongering, but again, it all needs to be considered and I just hope that everyone makes a measured decision. We won't get another go at this if we make all these drastic changes and fudge it up both for ourselves and for our kids.
mashednlovingit
Well-Known Member
We also won't be able to go back if we vote to remain!
You cannot say for definite that if things go completely down the drain the EU will NOT allow us to reapply (not that I can foresee us needing to that of course!). There is a quote within that link @MiniMarc which states “At some point, the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision. And then we will accept them back one day, if that’s what they want.”
You cannot say for definite that if things go completely down the drain the EU will NOT allow us to reapply (not that I can foresee us needing to that of course!). There is a quote within that link @MiniMarc which states “At some point, the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision. And then we will accept them back one day, if that’s what they want.”
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
Well it took us a few tries to join in the first place (government at time said no ta, realised economic mistake then tried to join, to which France said no twice. Had to wait until the french president changed before got in) so if exit and want to rejoin/gain access to single market might take a while.
Basically might as well have a "I feel lucky" google style button to vote. Nobody knows really the outcome either way!
Basically might as well have a "I feel lucky" google style button to vote. Nobody knows really the outcome either way!
Yes almost my point, that in the same article you can take different things. Never in our history had there been a national debate like this from what I can see. Had a big debate with a friend on fb but his dad is/was a politician.
It seems most people will have decided a while ago and all the new info/debates only perpetuates propaganda on both sides
It seems most people will have decided a while ago and all the new info/debates only perpetuates propaganda on both sides
mashednlovingit
Well-Known Member
Another business leader in suppprt of the leave vote. This time it's Sir James Dyson. As I keep saying don't listen to the politicians and economists, listen to what business leaders have to say. They are the people who will keep us growing!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thin...if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thin...if-we-leave-the-eu-no-one-will-trade-with-us/
oh god the more i read the more in the middle i am simply because there is sooo much info to take in. Its such a complicated issue its like you need to take a couple days off work to actually go through all the figures and facts as opposed to reading the articles that simplify both arguments
louisem30
Active Member
I couldn't agree with this statement more! I'm no more for 'in' than for 'out', and the more I read up on both sides of the argument the more confused I get
djedwardsmith
Active Member
Lesser of two evils for me, I'd rather put up with the likes of Cameron and Osbourne with the safety net of Europe restricting the damage they can do than voting to leave and allowing the likes of Boris, Grayling and Duncan Smith to erode the protections Europe has afforded us through following their laws.
Leave campaign has no logical plan in place, economic or politicial, for what would happen if we vote to leave. It's all based on "Well it's common sense isn't it", "Of course things would be fine", flying in the face of all experts who say otherwise; they're experts for a reason.
Leave campaign goes ahead in the polls and the £ drops like a stone against the Euro. Wait until we actually end up leaving.
And let's ignore how utterly illogical the campaign itself is when you've got half the Tory party telling us Cameron + Osborne are wrong and don't know what they're talking about so vote for us so we can leave and Cameron + Osborne can be in charge through this period of change.
Leave campaign has no logical plan in place, economic or politicial, for what would happen if we vote to leave. It's all based on "Well it's common sense isn't it", "Of course things would be fine", flying in the face of all experts who say otherwise; they're experts for a reason.
Leave campaign goes ahead in the polls and the £ drops like a stone against the Euro. Wait until we actually end up leaving.
And let's ignore how utterly illogical the campaign itself is when you've got half the Tory party telling us Cameron + Osborne are wrong and don't know what they're talking about so vote for us so we can leave and Cameron + Osborne can be in charge through this period of change.
Ikoda
Well-Known Member
Yup. Didn't mention who it was incase people got scared of listening to him talk...well, some sense. Haha. The man, I felt, was pretty on point.
mashednlovingit
Well-Known Member
@djedwardsmith no logical plan in place? Where are you getting this stuff from?! (Genuine question)
- Article 50 is enacted after a leave vote
- Negotiatons begin on a new trade deal with the EU and other nations
- Points system brought in for immigration (Cameron discussed this on Marrs show today comfirming that would be in place)
What else do you want fella? The government even produced a 50 page report on the next steps if you have the time to read it (careful though, there is some waffle in there!).
- Article 50 is enacted after a leave vote
- Negotiatons begin on a new trade deal with the EU and other nations
- Points system brought in for immigration (Cameron discussed this on Marrs show today comfirming that would be in place)
What else do you want fella? The government even produced a 50 page report on the next steps if you have the time to read it (careful though, there is some waffle in there!).
djedwardsmith
Active Member
None of which has been presented and the effects of which have not been analysed.
Negotiations begin. Precisely. The assumption there from Vote Leave is that we can just carry on trading with Europe on our own terms because that's "common sense", and "Europe wouldn't not want to trade with us". Cameron knows full well how hard it'd be to get a decent deal from Europe after voting to leave which is why he's trying so hard to stop it happening.
The argument that the EU won't stop trading with us again because it's common sense flies in the face of both logic and history, you wouldn't have thought the French would ban us from selling them our beef but there you go, it happened and if it wasn't for the EU courts removing that ban it'd probably still be in place.
The specifics of a points system as far as I'm aware are questionable at best; I keep hearing "Australia based system" but they have more immigration than us so I can't imagine it's that simple.
What happens next is a very sensible question to be asking, and whilst the frameworks might be in place in terms of timelines and responsibilities, the result and effect of those aren't remotely clear.