ok guys, long post warning...but here are a few thoughts of mine on the subject. I might be repeating myself in some points, but I feel I need to explain.
if the clubs can't open this summer, it would really mean ruin for ibiza - and this is why I am certain we will have a bit of nightlife this season.
not being able to open would result in lots of people NOT coming to the island. last year, lots of ibiza lovers came, but a lot of those people were also honest and said they would probably choose another destination if nightlife was banned for a second summer in a row. the consequences would really be ugly - for hotels, restaurants, shops, villa rentals, pretty much everything. and of course for the clubs too, but I'm not gonna go into guessing which clubs would be hit harder than the others, it's simply something I don't wanna discuss. right now we're really all in the same boat, more than ever, and this is also why I am sure there will be a joint effort to being able to open the clubs at some point this summer.
as mentioned previously, the 'how' and 'when', that's currently the uncertain bit. I personally don't think we will have full on clubbing without any restrictions this summer - as in I can't see 5000 people in amnesia, no masks, no social distancing, no nothing. I think we need to be realistic and put this idea on the back burner until 2022, unless vaccination really works better and quicker than I expect. I know things are looking really bad right now (as I had said elsewhere, for a long time I thought jan/feb 21 would be the worst period of the entire pandemic), but we mustn't forget we now have tools which will make things better. by springtime, in lots of european countries (as well as in the US etc) the vulnerable will be vaccinated and as life goes back outdoors, contagion will reduce again as it did last year.
also, keep in mind in various european countries we did see parties last summer, without having a vaccine and without having the now improved rapid tests. so I am certain we will see more this summer. I think may and probably june will be too early, but as mentioned before, the second bit of the summer, that's when I really think things will start to open up.
without naming any venues (because it actually doesn't matter), I know pretty much everyone is ready to do whatever to open this summer. yeah, maybe places have to start with a socially distanced formula in the beginning of the season and as the summer goes on and more people are vaccinated, rules will then get less strict. which could also mean that some venues only ever open when there is some dancefloor action. so from a socially distanced formula, over to a limited capacity dancefloor thing (and with masks - I truly don't believe we'll get rid of them before 2022 so better get comfy with that idea), the option of rapid testing people, there's literally far more options than last year.
in 2020 all the big venues accepted that it wasn't feasible to run big events. the approach for 2021 is different, not only from the clubs' point of view, but also politicians and business owners clearly see that while normalcy will probably only resume in 2022, for this summer, solutions will have to be found. a lot of the important voices (fauci in the US as well as lots of european medical heads) forsee normalcy to arrive by autumn and since this is too late for the ibiza season, compromise and solutions will have to be found. at this point I really cannot see the government banning the clubs another summer and them meeting with the clubs is a first step into the right direction. the fact the test event in barcelona worked so well is another good step.
resuming - it won't be a 'normal' season. but as I had said a few days ago, I think all the venues will open in some form at some point this summer.