☣ Coronavirus ☣
- Thread starter ibiza77
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craig72
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LoL.. Im here to dance,not judge..?What that you were one of the ugly ones....bet you fit in well??
craig72
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I do remember saying to my mate. Here stand closer,I want those girls to think we're Gay.....What that you were one of the ugly ones....bet you fit in well
craig72
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'Not a hope' of wet pubs reopening for Christmas
It is considered too dangerous at this stage for wet pubs to reopen
MrHullMysterious
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But "only" 11.2k positive tests. That's a massive drop. So either testing spreadsheet is falling over again, or people can't be arsed going for tests. Or perhaps even community transmission is starting to drop.
I think uk deaths will top out around 700 - 750 ish a day. So not as bad as 1k a day in April, but think will drop slower so we end up with just as many, if not more deaths ?
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
Dexamethasone? It's been used for last few months afaik and is helping.
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
Yeah the data table shows only up to Monday (which is always low after weekend). The week on week change is up 4%, which not great, but does shows the curve is flattening ?
Guess getting data from here?
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK
Edit: if you do look at data it should show the graph going down but doesn't. Confused now! Although day or so ago they did have a notice saying something to do with back filling death figures for previous days due to reporting issues / delays. So maybe that??
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Yeah the data table shows only up to Monday (which is always low after weekend). The week on week change is up 4%, which not great, but does shows the curve is flattening ?
Guess getting data from here?
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UKcoronavirus.data.gov.uk
Yes thats right, I follow the stats every day and compare the registered vs the actual and also the differences between the nations.
Stats is my job so I always looks to see the whats happening rather than rely on the headline (and alarmist) registered death figure which is all over the place.
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
Ah! Figured it out. The data has 2 sections, one reported by date and the other one you see on the news.
The first one by date gets backfilled as late death certs come through and changes. The other one doesn't.
See attached, first death by cert date which will update. 2nd is one see on news. reported in last 24hrs
Edit guess need to wait 14 days for "todays" deaths by date to be correct as it where.?
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MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
So tl;dr; is the deaths by date of persons death is much better metric, but has a lag of few days to ~week.
The number we see on news is number of death certs submitted in a 24hr period (metaphorical inbox on someone's desk), which is all over the place and has lot of noise in it. But useful with a rolling 7 day average to see trends. Actually the 7 day rolling average ain't to far off the deaths by date stats, if you consider the ~week lag.
Well I think so, but its getting late for me? ?
Just wish it gets down to the 5-10 a day they where reporting a few months ago ?
The number we see on news is number of death certs submitted in a 24hr period (metaphorical inbox on someone's desk), which is all over the place and has lot of noise in it. But useful with a rolling 7 day average to see trends. Actually the 7 day rolling average ain't to far off the deaths by date stats, if you consider the ~week lag.
Well I think so, but its getting late for me?
?Just wish it gets down to the 5-10 a day they where reporting a few months ago ?
Yes thats right, the data set at the top of the site is actual deaths per day, the set of data below that is registered deaths per day which is what is quoted on the news. Not sure why the media just focus on the registered, can only assume as its higher it is more eye catching, ultimately the total deaths overall (55,838) are the same but there is a big difference between actual deaths per day and those reported,. Hence why the figures registered on a monday always appeared lower due to the weekend and the delay in reporting a death.
The rolling average is probably a better measure and will smooth out the registered death variation as those registered have often died over the days and sometimes weeks before but are late in being registered.
lee111s
Well-Known Member
Average daily deaths is around 350 at the moment. Not sure we’ll get up to the 700 mark, unless you’re talking about by date of death reported, as opposed to date of death occured.
MrHullMysterious
Well-Known Member
Oh sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant I think the "headline" figure will touch 700 before it drops. The average will be less than that thankfully.
I'd love to be completely wrong of course.
kimajy
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile in Bristol the police have taken to publishing mugshots of illegal rave-goers in the papers .... "Kein foto" is not such a daft idea after all now is it kids ? 
www.bristolpost.co.uk
Police want to find all the people in these pictures from rave
Do you recognise any of them?
Hally
Well-Known Member
With the vaccine around the corner this is probably a pointless argument but for those who think we should let it spread freely for those 'not at risk'....
My mate (in his 40s, no underlying health conditions) is on day 25. In bed all day today, fever back, really unwell. I read that 1 in10 people under 50 are experiencing long Covid (8 or more weeks) following infection with all the personal and financial impact that entails
Just shit really
My mate (in his 40s, no underlying health conditions) is on day 25. In bed all day today, fever back, really unwell. I read that 1 in10 people under 50 are experiencing long Covid (8 or more weeks) following infection with all the personal and financial impact that entails
Just shit really
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