craig72
No longer active
True.. more serious problems out there now..I feel your pain.
Stop hurting yourself
☣ Coronavirus ☣
- Thread starter ibiza77
- Start date
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gutsy
Well-Known Member
Same here.
i thought that this was useful in re-enforcing the importance of sticking to the social distancing rules if we really want this thing to end any time soon:
The following blog from Jonathan Smith, an American epidemiologist, is a bit wordy but seems very relevant to this. The short message is: it's really important - no exceptions. Every additional contact is an increased risk. and the spread is exponential. That means that if you pass on the virus to 2 people and they pass it on to another 2 and so on, then after 5 transmissions you have 32 infections but if each person in that chain passes it on to 4 people, that results in over 1,000 infections.
As an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
The following blog from Jonathan Smith, an American epidemiologist, is a bit wordy but seems very relevant to this. The short message is: it's really important - no exceptions. Every additional contact is an increased risk. and the spread is exponential. That means that if you pass on the virus to 2 people and they pass it on to another 2 and so on, then after 5 transmissions you have 32 infections but if each person in that chain passes it on to 4 people, that results in over 1,000 infections.
As an infectious disease epidemiologist (although a lowly one), at this point feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media.
Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.
First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse. This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit. You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain.
In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices. My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.
North
Active Member
that atlas track ..
Ok some trips to ibiza (including mine mid-may and I almost sure the one month in June too) are cancelled, but let's try to be a bit more down to earth with it, I feel extremely lucky no-one around me (friends and family) are sick now, I fell also extremely lucky to live in a Country (Netherlands) where I am not stress to get food and bit of money at the end of the month.
Sucks ibiza plans are postponed but ibiza won't deseaper with the virus.
To be honest I am a lot more concern about the day after, I have the feeling that our lives will be a lot different and we won't be able to travel so much so easily like before. Maybe it is a sign from earth to say stop we were destructing the planet too quickly.
Stay safe everybody
Sucks ibiza plans are postponed but ibiza won't deseaper with the virus.
To be honest I am a lot more concern about the day after, I have the feeling that our lives will be a lot different and we won't be able to travel so much so easily like before. Maybe it is a sign from earth to say stop we were destructing the planet too quickly.
Stay safe everybody
cunninghamali
Well-Known Member
that atlas track ..
[/QUOTE]
I love the starting track rampa who we are! Tune if the year for me
[/QUOTE]
I love the starting track rampa who we are! Tune if the year for me
cunninghamali
Well-Known Member
Very true.... For at least a year or a year and a half life be different and not like before...thats sad...
No more parties or festivals or clubs for a long while..
The party and Dj scene will suffer
JayDR8
Active Member
Wait out for the Camelphat X Artbat song coming out soon ?
BenH
Active Member
Absolutely epic
JayDR8
Active Member
I can already feel those sweet sweet chemicals running through my veins as that beat drops ?. Please don't ruin this corona ?
2H76
Well-Known Member
Reagarding air travel, it's almost certain that non-domestic travel will incur some kind of health check, copuld be as simple as having your temperature taken before you board, it could involve doctor's notes etc. One point that's not been really covered is what will your health insurance (a) cost and (b) cover?
Remembering us Brits here in the UK have decided to vote away the EHIC, and it's never been so valuable. I can't see even the most ardent Brexiteer now agreeing that chucking away the card is a good idea, apart from those that never travel.
But will spite and a must-do-Brexit UK government stop that?
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heavanisibiza
Active Member
Any reports on how the Island is coping at present? Im hoping its not following mainland Spains doubling rate of infection.
I just hope they are getting all the resources they need to protect them.
The island inhabitants provide massive revenue in good times and i hope they get the protection they need right now.
Long live Eivissa
I just hope they are getting all the resources they need to protect them.
The island inhabitants provide massive revenue in good times and i hope they get the protection they need right now.
Long live Eivissa
2H76
Well-Known Member
https://theibizan.com/news/ is as good as any, although first place to look would be the dedicated thread by Stivi on here.
heavanisibiza
Active Member
Gracias, I've been avoiding mainstream media for weeks as it's pretty grim.
2H76
Well-Known Member
I've been avoiding mainstream media for years! Most of the stuff they write is scaremongering claptrap at the best of times.
heavanisibiza
Active Member
True, this is literally the boy cried wolf scenario when you see what's happened though.
People were still attending football matches, Cheltenham, going to pubs and socialising weeks ago thinking its only the new fear factor been pushed on us.
Meanwhile they were actually bringing home a virus thats killing thousands.
What's happening in all the major cities makes 9/11 look like a minor incident.
2H76
Well-Known Member
Yeah, what's another scare story when you've read thousands before?
heavanisibiza
Active Member
Exactly, something real was always going to come along under the radar.
BenH
Active Member
All for the feeling ?
Browny
Well-Known Member
I get people are bored but people whinging on about clubs/festivals etc COME ON?
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