☣ Coronavirus ☣

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stivi said:
"Manche Leute glauben, sie wüßten, was in der Welt passiert, wenn sie die Zeitung lesen. Dabei wissen sie nur, was in der Zeitung steht. "(Mark Twain)
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This quote applies to 90% of the people here, who still believe in the good faith of their governments, newspapers and as it turns out in Germany now also their scientific world. Quite the storm I would say.
 
AntonioGeordio said:
Im going to be totally honest here mate, and at risk of great ridicule etc, but I actually did believe that at the start 😬🤦‍♂️

Makes me sound like the most naive bloke ever now lol. Absolute sweet summer child 😄

I think I’m too optimistic in my outlook on life.

I genuinely thought a few weeks of lockdown would have it all sorted out and we’d all be back to normal. Cheers easy. I’ll just crack on now.

My other half was the polar opposite. End of the world etc. All going to die. Hell is coming. The end is nigh.

Cringe at myself now after the year we’ve all had 😑
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nothing wrong with always looking at the glass as half full mate!
 
each to their own, but for the majority of the population (obviously NOT you @FlatErik , so much is clear), who do you think will look trustworthier once this is all over:

a government that errs on the cautionary side of things and tells people 'look, this could be really bad' or a goverment that says it's a 'gripinha' (bolsonaro) it's gonna go away magically (trump) or tegnell's beautiful 'we'll have herd immunity quickly' and then a few months later 'we won't have a second wave'?

the vast majority of the world's governments are always gonna go either too hard or too easy - that's politics. the best ones I think have been australia and especially NZ who acted super quick and super hard. result? well, see for yourself, concerts, parties, tennis tournaments now...normal life basically.
 
FlatErik said:
Another article on this:

At the beginning of last year, the German Ministry of the Interior worked with several scientists on a strategy to increase fear of corona, in order to foster understanding for drastic corona measures. The newspaper Die Welt reports this on the basis of a leaked email exchange.
Minister of the Interior Seehofer and the scientists involved have not yet responded. Opposition parties demand clarification.

The emails date from March and April 2020, when Germany was in the first lockdown. Seehofer was concerned about easing too quickly and instructed his State Secretary Markus Kerber to come up with a plan to generate support for more stringent measures.

Kerber sent an email to various scientists, universities and research institutes asking, among other things, for a worst-case scenario to get a "mental and systematic" grip on the situation. This would help to plan "measures of a preventive and repressive nature".
The scientists provided plenty of suggestions, including proposals to put "fear and obedience in the population" on the agenda, writes Die Welt. For this purpose, campaigns could be used with images of people dying of breathlessness because there are no IC beds available.

Warnings for millions of deaths
It is striking that scientists "negotiated" among themselves about the possible death toll that should be mentioned. The RKI, the German RIVM, proposed to work with their estimate of 0.56 percent of the infected persons, but an employee of the RWI, an influential economic research institute, argued for the death rate of 1.2 percent.

He wrote that they should think "from the purpose of the model", which is to emphasize "a lot of pressure to act" and therefore present the numbers "better worse than too good".

Both mortality rates are included in the Ministry's ultimate strategy document. For the worst-case scenario, they used the percentage suggested by the RWI. If the government does not act, 70 percent of the population could become infected and the death toll could run into the millions, Seehofer warned several times at the time.

The emails were supposed to be kept secret. They were released after months of proceedings from a Berlin group of lawyers, who sent them to Die Welt. The names of scientists have been made illegible in the emails. It is clear that Lothar Wieler, the boss of the RKI, was involved in the email exchange. The RKI does not want to say anything about it, because it would be an "internal discussion document".


So...you feel this has happened in good faith?
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1. Does this have a quote as it appears to be written in the opinion of the writer of the article, which is of course written as a piece to suggest this happened so I'd expect the journalist to imply guilt.

2. Asking for a worst case scenario to help plan preventative plans? Every large business has a business disaster plan, i'd certainly expect a government to be planning for the worst case scenario and to need to see the figures on this.

3. One person seemingly had a differing opinion to the other experts? Maybe they got it wrong, sometimes people do. I find it quite ironic that you think this means that they are trying to push their agenda considering you seem to make a habit of posting articles by people that make a career out of this, backing an opinion that is contrary to the mass majority of experts.

4. See point two, I'd find it weirder if they said 'don't show us the worst case, we're just gonna ignore that'. The messaging needs to be correct, so yes they need to be able to get the seriousness of the situation across. The words sound more crass in the article out of context, of course no full quotes are given in it. It's best to react well than not to (See UK government).

5. What's wrong with this bit? If 70% of the population end up with the virus then hospitals would definitely be overwhelmed, if hospitals are overwhelmed than every person needing a ventilator dies as there are none left. if anyone needs oxygen and they can't receive it, they'll deteriorate, they'll be needing a ventilator? No they're all gone, so they'll most likely die too. This is then where deaths come in that aren't related to Covid, as people can't get other treatments, or are even scared to be entering a hospital or reach out to a doctor because the virus is so rife in the population.


Conclusion - There is no evidence in this article that anything isn't in good faith, in fact they've reacted exactly how i'd expect by asking for a worst case scenario and taking a precautious approach. Take a look at that approach and then the UK approach and then you'll see why the early part of the pandemic was so horrific for the UK rather than Germany.


To go further, here in the UK in September they put together a realistic trajectory of how cases and deaths could grow, they repeatedly stated that this wasn't their projection, but just an idea of how the exponential growth happens. This gave very wishy washy messaging and had lockdown sceptics ridiculing it as something to scare us with. Of course the numerical figures behind it all stacked up, but they had presented it as almost as something that would happen with no intervention but it won't happen now. In that press conference they stated
And you can see that by mid-October if that continued, you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day. 50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200 plus deaths per day
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Of course we won't go by cases as not all are picked up, however deaths are gonna be close to the correct figure. Middle of November we were averaging over 440 deaths per day.

So this covers more than one point, it shows that even reasonable projections are ridiculed, this one was understated. Of course it wasn't a specific projection of where we'd be but had been calculated using the raw data and it turned out to be much worse. Not only that, but it goes to show that if you don't get the messaging right and make the public understand the seriousness then they won't take it seriously.
So in a crass way it is good to create the fear of the situation because most people can't comprehend how bad it can be and will underestimate this and be more likely to break any rules, this isn't to say that the fear is created with fake numbers. There is no evidence to say the numbers don't stack up

The briefing mentioned is all here: https://www.gov.uk/government/speec...-on-coronavirus-covid-19-21-september-2020--2
Death data here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
 
FlatErik said:
This quote applies to 90% of the people here, who still believe in the good faith of their governments, newspapers and as it turns out in Germany now also their scientific world. Quite the storm I would say.
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The majority of people in here seem to be brits, our government are completely incompetent and are all in their jobs because they supported brexit. As for our newspapers they are all just as complicit in that too as the majority are massively right wing, some are just outright racist. They're currently all writing stories about how the EU is to blame for our terrible brexit deal and not a single bit of the blame is put at the door of the government😂. Most people who take notice have no faith in either of them 👍
 
stivi said:
each to their own, but for the majority of the population (obviously NOT you @FlatErik , so much is clear), who do you think will look trustworthier once this is all over:

a government that errs on the cautionary side of things and tells people 'look, this could be really bad' or a goverment that says it's a 'gripinha' (bolsonaro) it's gonna go away magically (trump) or tegnell's beautiful 'we'll have herd immunity quickly' and then a few months later 'we won't have a second wave'?

the vast majority of the world's governments are always gonna go either too hard or too easy - that's politics. the best ones I think have been australia and especially NZ who acted super quick and super hard. result? well, see for yourself, concerts, parties, tennis tournaments now...normal life basically.
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I can't withhold responding to this again, because this is belittling what has actually happened. It's a leaked document that proves it, no matter what paper publishes it or what your friends might say about it. It should raise major concern.

It's not being on the cautionary side of things. It's a government purposely calling out to universities and scientists and asking them to think with the government how to create worst case scenarios, including creating disturbing images of people dying without help and increasing a possible death toll without any logical base for it to millions of deaths....only to get support for your measures and extension of the lockdown.
 
Hally said:
As my mum always said 'if it looks like a pandemic killing millions though social contact and smells ike a pandemic killing millions though social contact then it's probably a pandemic killing millions though social contact' but what does she know?
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What if it looks and smells like a pandemic killing millions because the government has played you into thinking it looks like that....with science manipulating numbers and main stream media publishing those fearful messages. Cause that's what happened.
 
Why would almost all the governments in the world collaborate to do that? Given the level of financial packages given out, government having to bail out major businesses and sectors of the economy ? Just for some ‘fear porn’ ?

but be so sloppy in their justifications and use of stats the average man on a clubbing forum can foil their grand plan ?
 
FlatErik said:
What if it looks and smells like a pandemic killing millions because the government has played you into thinking it looks like that....with science manipulating numbers and main stream media publishing those fearful messages. Cause that's what happened.
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Ooh those sneaky governments and scientific communities, tricking me
again 😡😡😡

Damn those complex international conspiracies 👎👎👎
 
Springal said:
Why would almost all the governments in the world collaborate to do that? Given the level of financial packages given out, government having to bail out major businesses and sectors of the economy ? Just for some ‘fear porn’ ?
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Springal said:
Why would almost all the governments in the world collaborate to do that? Given the level of financial packages given out, government having to bail out major businesses and sectors of the economy ? Just for some ‘fear porn’ ?
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If you read my post a page back I explained my view on this you would see why that is. It's not collaboration, there is no grand plan.
But it happens anyway.
 
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FlatErik said:
What if it looks and smells like a pandemic killing millions because the government has played you into thinking it looks like that....with science manipulating numbers and main stream media publishing those fearful messages. Cause that's what happened.
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Yes the media do a bit of fear monging and have a narrative......But millions have died worldwide.....thats a fact, not fiction not made up thats true
 
Hally said:
Ooh those sneaky governments and scientific communities, tricking me
again 😡😡😡

Damn those complex international conspiracies 👎👎👎
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I knew some would try to ridicule this...it's just the game they play here and they get a few likes here and there. But I would have thought you would actually read it and respond seriously about it, without expecting you to agree with anything. Same goes for the ambulance numbers. But hey...do what you need to do 👍
 
cunninghamali said:
Yes the media do a bit of fear monging and have a narrative......But millions have died worldwide.....thats a fact, not fiction not made up thats true
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True. But millions worldwide is something else than saying millions in Germany alone to keep their citizens scared.
 
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