☣ Coronavirus ☣

[djedwardsmith]

Many pages ago I wrote about the doubts on PCR tests. People without any symptoms tested positive and were counted as cases. Off course I was called out a liar for using Russian propaganda and such..but okay.
Remember...positive PCR tests were the reason a lot of countries tightened the measures again. In The Netherlands it was part of the fear-campaign (I shall use a different word from now on). Now the World Health Organization has published this:

WHO Information Notice for Users 2020/05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021 WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...

www.who.int

This says that a positive PCR test = no longer covid now. You will not be counted as a Covid case unless you get a second test to confirm it if you don't have the symptoms. I'm curious to see what the impact is.
Again, I'm talking about The Netherlands...we have no collapsing acute healthcare at the moment, not even half the capacity we needed in lockdown 1 is used, but the government sees "cases" rising and are scaring us with the British variant.

View attachment 11372

You don't really understand what you've posted there do you.

 

[FlatErik]

Multiple dutch news channels saying there's a lot of criticism on Boris Johnson for his unfunded claims about the mortality of the virus. And this is probably a Russian propaganda paper but I'm posting it anyway:

 

[BenH]

There's a difference between differ of opinion and just being insensitive...I normally don't get involved but his recent comments wound me up

This wasn’t aimed at you my friend

 

[cunninghamali]

This wasn’t aimed at you my friend

I know mate?

 

[MrHullMysterious]

This wasn’t aimed at you my friend

Yeah I know mate. I get you are sceptical of governments and all this shit, which isn't a bad idea. Plus you are receptive to a good reasoned response.

I think what is annoying others is certain opinions of what to be done, when challenged to fill in the gaping holes with it, go unanswered.

Bit like a sales team selling something to a customer, then telling the engineering team what they've promised it can do
Like this

 

[BenH]

Oh come on?, we've had different viewpoints on vaccines and lockdown to some extent, but I don't think you're of the opinion we should bin it off and throw the "old" under the bus.

I definitely don’t think that mate!

If an opinion has data, self consistent logic or some other scientific research to show it has a possible positive outcome, happy to discuss it. But some opinions are "I'm sick of this shit, want it over for me now, f*** everyone who will suffer". (Not saying that is you)

Completely get that feeling myself - besides xmas day I've not seen anyone since Sept & live on my tod?.

But if the outcome for society is worse, we have to keep going with the least worse option. If the vaccines don't work, then it will be the older under the bus I'm afraid!

Doesn't help the UK is always too late on acting and leaves us with poorer more painful least bad options.

Feel free to ridicule any of our opinions btw?

- the Sage & Onion crew ?

MADE ME LOL ?

 

[FlatErik]

You don't really understand what you've posted there do you.

See, this is the atmosphere here...and I'm being called out for being insensitive ?

In fact I do understand what I've posted there, but let me explain it to you.
It means a sole positive PCR test without any symptoms should not be counted as a Covid case anymore. Lots of countries did and based their restrictions on those numbers. WHO is now giving out a warning to test again if symptoms are not present. This could make a significant difference in amount of cases and calculations about hospital beds.

 

[BenH]

Do see where you are coming from for this. Just think it’s a difficult thing to set metrics for. For instance I know my local authority hospitals ICUs were full just after Christmas because we took patients from 2 neighbouring counties / trusts. So should we be punished with lockdowns based on this. I’d be surprised if we get past March without a chance in tact and hopefully we do go back to some kind of tiered system again. Vaccine program and improving weather should help




really ? Looks like you’re the one shit stirring to me! Apart from the obvious poster this thread has had plenty of healthy / good debate

1st person I’ve felt the need to block on here! Goodbye

 

[MrHullMysterious]

See, this is the atmosphere here...and I'm being called out for being insensitive ?

In fact I do understand what I've posted there, but let me explain it to you.
It means a sole positive PCR test without any symptoms should not be counted as a Covid case anymore. Lots of countries did and based their restrictions on those numbers. WHO is now giving out a warning to test again if symptoms are not present. This could make a significant difference in amount of cases and calculations about hospital beds.

So you saying positive covid result but for asymptomatic people doesn't count??!
If they didn't transmit the virus, ok, but they do. Perhaps I'm missing something ?‍?‍


Edit: it says if positive result below the cycle threshold set by the pcr test manufacturer & no symptoms, then requires a 2nd test?

Not same thing as asymptomatic people don't count.?

 

[FlatErik]

So you saying positive covid result but for asymptomatic people doesn't count??!
If they didn't transmit the virus, ok, but they do. Perhaps I'm missing something ?‍?‍


Edit: it says if positive result below the cycle threshold set by the pcr test manufacturer & no symptoms, then requires a 2nd test?

Not same thing as asymptomatic people don't count.?

I did not say asymptomatic people don't count, but they won't count as covid cases solely based on 1 PCR test anymore.
They did before. I'm curious to see what this does to the numbers.

 

[Springal]

1st person I’ve felt the need to block on here! Goodbye

??‍ I’m just saying your post is fairly inflammatory and not helpful to debate

 

[Springal]

I did not say asymptomatic people don't count, but they won't count as covid cases solely based on 1 PCR test anymore.
They did before. I'm curious to see what this does to the numbers.

but like everyone keeps saying, the main metric that counts and that has been used to drive the full lockdowns is hospital capacity and how many free beds you have in ICU.
If ICUs are close to or over 100% then that is an emergency whatever the cause

 

[djedwardsmith]

See, this is the atmosphere here...and I'm being called out for being insensitive ?

In fact I do understand what I've posted there, but let me explain it to you.
It means a sole positive PCR test without any symptoms should not be counted as a Covid case anymore. Lots of countries did and based their restrictions on those numbers. WHO is now giving out a warning to test again if symptoms are not present. This could make a significant difference in amount of cases and calculations about hospital beds.

It's actually to do with tolerances, and from what I understand is aimed more at those who test positive weeks after an initial positive due to the presence of the virus in the system, even when they're no longer infectious.

Even if it was your latter point - it would make no difference on the calculations about hospital beds. At all.

I don't even know what you're trying to argue in here, I don't think you do either. Are you trying to downplay the virus? Don't whink we should lockdown? Cull the elderly?

 

[MrHullMysterious]

It's doing that not bold/latest posts thing again for me on this thread.

Think it's trying to tell me something ?

 

[FlatErik]

but like everyone keeps saying, the main metric that counts is hospital capacity and how many free beds you have in ICU.
If ICUs are close to or over 100% then that is an emergency whatever the cause

And like I keep saying, that narrative has changed over time.
I can only speak for The Netherlands but first we needed less daily deaths...then we needed to flatten the curve of ICU beds...when we did that we got some freedom back in summer but that was quickly turned back because of rising cases. ICU's here are far from close to 100%. It's the rising cases our government is worrying about, oh and the British variant. Now I've even heard politicians changing the narrative again, now we need to stay in lockdown until (almost) everyone is vaccinated.

 

[FlatErik]

It's actually to do with tolerances, and from what I understand is aimed more at those who test positive weeks after an initial positive due to the presence of the virus in the system, even when they're no longer infectious.

Even if it was your latter point - it would make no difference on the calculations about hospital beds. At all.

I don't even know what you're trying to argue in here, I don't think you do either. Are you trying to downplay the virus? Don't whink we should lockdown? Cull the elderly?

I'm not trying to downplay the virus personally, but I'm curious to see if it's portrayed / calculated worse than it was in reality. In terms of the positive PCR tests that is...We'll see.

 

[djedwardsmith]

I'm not trying to downplay the virus personally, but I'm curious to see if it's portrayed / calculated worse than it was in reality. In terms of the positive PCR tests that is...We'll see.

But with that logic, they can't win. If their actions work and deaths/icu capacity isn't drastically bad, you and people who think similar will just argue that the actions were unnecessary.

The reason the focus keeps changing is because our understanding of the virus, and how to manage it, is changing. In the UK the concern has always been on ICU capacity, and the number of ventilators.

 

[spinksy123]

I've been having a quick nose after dinner through Google.

London has approximately 1000 CCU beds available. The population for London is 9.3 million...

If the 1000 bed count is accurate. Then 93000 thousand is 1% of the population. So 1000 is a woefully ill equipped number. And there lays the problem. It's taking a relatively small number of serious cases in relation to total population for hospitals the reach capacity.

So on one hand you have front line staff seeing the damage to seriously ill people. On the other you have a significant percentage of the population locked down without knowing a single person who's been hospitalised by the virus. And so the conflict between the two sides occurs.....

I say this as a theory and a question to anyone with more accurate bed count data?

Not making a statement of fact by any stretch.

 

[Springal]

I've been having a quick nose after dinner through Google.

London has approximately 1000 CCU beds available. The population for London is 9.3 million...

If the 1000 bed count is accurate. Then 93000 thousand is 1% of the population. So 1000 is a woefully ill equipped number. And there lays the problem. It's taking a relatively small number of serious cases in relation to total population for hospitals the reach capacity.

and here in a big part of the problem - 10 years of Tory reign and cuts to the NHS. Coupled with Brexit and many overseas NHS workers leaving the country it is the perfect storm. Unfortunately we recently had an election so can’t see things changing.Especially given in the last 6 months MPs voted against NHS pay rises ??‍

Not completely blaming the tories of course, because for 100 years the ICU capacity will have been largely ok, but we had near misses with SARS etc so you could ask should we / could we have been better prepared and were the cuts we’ve seen really necessary

 

[spinksy123]

and here in a big part of the problem - 10 years of Tory reign and cuts to the NHS. Coupled with Brexit and many overseas NHS workers leaving the country it is the perfect storm. Unfortunately we recently had an election so can’t see things changing.

Not completely blaming the tories of course, because for 100 years the ICU capacity will have been largely ok, but we had near misses with SARS etc so you could ask should we / could we have been better prepared and were the cuts we’ve seen really necessary

And would it not be obvious in building said Nightingale hospitals. They had no chance of staffing them. Which i think is the real issue. Can have a million beds. But with no staff. It doesn't matter....

If 1000 beds is an accurate figure. I think people would be truly appalled. I thought it would be 10 times that at least......