☣ Coronavirus ☣

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i think the death rate will be a lot less than is currently assumed, because i believe many more people have had it already without realizing. i also think it will be difficult to contain, but will hopefully burn out before summer. it's already pretty warm here!

if they are unable to contain it, then it is simply everywhere - in which case there's no reason for quarantine. i just can't honestly see them quarantining entire islands and stopping all flights. certainly advance bookings are not really suffering (talking with hotels and what we see ourselves) ?:)

hopefully it will reach a peak within this month and then gradually fade away - certainly people will be pretty bored of it by then ;)

"get corona virus done!" :spank:
 
i think the death rate will be a lot less than is currently assumed, because i believe many more people have had it already without realizing. i also think it will be difficult to contain, but will hopefully burn out before summer. it's already pretty warm here!

if they are unable to contain it, then it is simply everywhere - in which case there's no reason for quarantine. i just can't honestly see them quarantining entire islands and stopping all flights. certainly advance bookings are not really suffering (talking with hotels and what we see ourselves) ?:)

hopefully it will reach a peak within this month and then gradually fade away - certainly people will be pretty bored of it by then ;)

"get corona virus done!" :spank:

I think we will get the most accurate estimate on actual death-rate from the cruise ship Diamond Princess. The ship operates as a micro-environment where no one can hide away or get off without being tested and healthy. As it is more elder people on a cruise ship and the virus seem more dangerous for elder, death-rate will be lower in the outside world though.
Of the 3711 passengers and crew 706 got infected and so far six are dead which clearly indicates a lower death-rate.
 
I think we will get the most accurate estimate on actual death-rate from the cruise ship Diamond Princess. The ship operates as a micro-environment where no one can hide away or get off without being tested and healthy. As it is more elder people on a cruise ship and the virus seem more dangerous for elder, death-rate will be lower in the outside world though.
Of the 3711 passengers and crew 706 got infected and so far six are dead which clearly indicates a lower death-rate.
Don't forget the average age of the people who are doing holidays like this.
The death-rate should be higher than anywhere else...
 
Statistically it’s a moot point whether that is a lot of people if we consider pre-existing conditions and other co-morbidities. It’s better to compare this with something like influenza, which although curable and has a lower mortality rate still globally kills up to 650,000 a year. Yet flu almost never gets mentioned on the news.
Exactly.
 
I for one would hate to have my trip scheduled for this May cancelled, and not because of the money I'd lose. However, I'm seeing a big discrepancy in what officials are telling us and what is actually going on, and it doesn't look promising at all. After all is said and done, I believe that the death rate is going to be found to be 2-3x what they're saying that it is now. Not to be a "sky is falling" type, but I can't see how this virus isn't going to cripple world-wide travel, and especially, festival and music venue gatherings. I'm even concerned for a local festival that I absolutely love doing volunteer work for beforehand, and yet it's not scheduled until late July. We'll see....
Don't panic, a lot of people are apparently carrying the virus unknown to them and anyone else, and the symptoms don't materialise - so the death rate could be a lot lower in percentage terms. That's what I hear anyway, makes me wonder how long someone can "carry" the virus.
 
This is getting real serious. I wonder if the Ibiza's reservations are down too? Flights, hotels, club tickets... Stivi? Any indications that the virus is aslo hurting Ibiza?

Tomorrowland Winter in France also cancelled.

It has moved very quickly in Europe in the last 2 weeks or so. I'd be surprised if there was any noticeable effect at the moment. Cancellations over the coming weeks perhaps would be interesting.

Time is probably on Ibiza side at the moment - see where we are in 4 weeks time I reckon. A lot of airlines are bracing themselves for a downturn this summer. BA have already announced to staff they expect 6 months of enforced unpaid leave or offers of roles to become part time

Lufthansa reducing capacity by 20%, Finnair started a consultation around temporary layoffs for a short period
 
This is getting real serious. I wonder if the Ibiza's reservations are down too? Flights, hotels, club tickets... Stivi? Any indications that the virus is aslo hurting Ibiza?

ok...where to start...

first things first: in ibiza, we still have zero coronavirus cases as of today.

second - personally I think (and I am sure lots of you agree) this is just massively overhyped on a global level. it's basically a mutated flu, but if you aren't old or have a serious health problem already, it's 95% (or higher) sure you'd survive if you got it.

but of course everyone is a little insecure now. from our end we can't see any dip in bookings right now, but we're also realistic, depending how the next few weeks go, the island might be affected. wait and see. and don't panic in the meantime. on the upside, if it blows over (eventually it will), there might be discounts around and everyone will be more than ready for a holiday in the sun!
 
ok...where to start...

first things first: in ibiza, we still have zero coronavirus cases as of today.

second - personally I think (and I am sure lots of you agree) this is just massively overhyped on a global level. it's basically a mutated flu, but if you aren't old or have a serious health problem already, it's 95% (or higher) sure you'd survive if you got it.

What if you carry it and give it to someone else that has less chances of surviving? I think that is the problem. Especially with the 2 week 'incubation' period - people will have it now and not know for a week or so.

WHO website has loads of useful stuff - much better reported than the media. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
 
What if you carry it and give it to someone else that has less chances of surviving? I think that is the problem. Especially with the 2 week 'incubation' period - people will have it now and not know for a week or so.

this is what we'll find out soon....
 
What if you carry it and give it to someone else that has less chances of surviving? I think that is the problem. Especially with the 2 week 'incubation' period - people will have it now and not know for a week or so.

This is exactly right. The most recent data I've seen indicates in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. There is also increased risk for those with weakened immune systems (cancer patients, HIV, on immune suppressant medication for Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Ulcerative Colitis, etc) as well as diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

The other problem is going to be overcrowding of the healthcare system. China built a hospital, Washington USA is buying an old hotel to convert to a hospital, Korea has only 5-6,000 cases confirmed and they are reporting being unable to handle the capacity already. In China many of the people who did not survive, would have had they been able to get access to the medical care they needed. The most recent data I could find indicated Spain has about 5,000 intensive care beds, which usually run about 80% capacity (1000 open).

There are almost 150 drug trials ongoing to evaluate the efficacy of anti-viral and other forms of treatment. There is hope that warm weather may slow the spread, but this is speculative at the moment. Until we have more information on this stuff, the only options we have are containment options like travel restrictions, quarantine, cancelling school, and restricting large gatherings of people.

The math is pretty ugly. I am of the opinion reality is better than the math, but worse than the general public is willing to acknowledge. I have been preparing to have honeymoon to BCN / IBZ cancelled by the airlines since Spain allowed Fallas to happen unmitigated.
 
This is exactly right. The most recent data I've seen indicates in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. There is also increased risk for those with weakened immune systems (cancer patients, HIV, on immune suppressant medication for Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Ulcerative Colitis, etc) as well as diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

The other problem is going to be overcrowding of the healthcare system. China built a hospital, Washington USA is buying an old hotel to convert to a hospital, Korea has only 5-6,000 cases confirmed and they are reporting being unable to handle the capacity already. In China many of the people who did not survive, would have had they been able to get access to the medical care they needed. The most recent data I could find indicated Spain has about 5,000 intensive care beds, which usually run about 80% capacity (1000 open).

There are almost 150 drug trials ongoing to evaluate the efficacy of anti-viral and other forms of treatment. There is hope that warm weather may slow the spread, but this is speculative at the moment. Until we have more information on this stuff, the only options we have are containment options like travel restrictions, quarantine, cancelling school, and restricting large gatherings of people.

The math is pretty ugly. I am of the opinion reality is better than the math, but worse than the general public is willing to acknowledge. I have been preparing to have honeymoon to BCN / IBZ cancelled by the airlines since Spain allowed Fallas to happen unmitigated.

the question is, how many of those elderly people would have died anyway? even with a regular neumonia elderly people have a risk of death.
 
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