The Sun God
Active Member
russian roulette time now
☣ Coronavirus ☣
- Thread starter ibiza77
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i think the death rate will be a lot less than is currently assumed, because i believe many more people have had it already without realizing. i also think it will be difficult to contain, but will hopefully burn out before summer. it's already pretty warm here!
if they are unable to contain it, then it is simply everywhere - in which case there's no reason for quarantine. i just can't honestly see them quarantining entire islands and stopping all flights. certainly advance bookings are not really suffering (talking with hotels and what we see ourselves) ?
hopefully it will reach a peak within this month and then gradually fade away - certainly people will be pretty bored of it by then
"get corona virus done!"
if they are unable to contain it, then it is simply everywhere - in which case there's no reason for quarantine. i just can't honestly see them quarantining entire islands and stopping all flights. certainly advance bookings are not really suffering (talking with hotels and what we see ourselves) ?
hopefully it will reach a peak within this month and then gradually fade away - certainly people will be pretty bored of it by then
"get corona virus done!"
i think the death rate will be a lot less than is currently assumed, because i believe many more people have had it already without realizing. i also think it will be difficult to contain, but will hopefully burn out before summer. it's already pretty warm here!
if they are unable to contain it, then it is simply everywhere - in which case there's no reason for quarantine. i just can't honestly see them quarantining entire islands and stopping all flights. certainly advance bookings are not really suffering (talking with hotels and what we see ourselves) ?
hopefully it will reach a peak within this month and then gradually fade away - certainly people will be pretty bored of it by then
"get corona virus done!"
I think we will get the most accurate estimate on actual death-rate from the cruise ship Diamond Princess. The ship operates as a micro-environment where no one can hide away or get off without being tested and healthy. As it is more elder people on a cruise ship and the virus seem more dangerous for elder, death-rate will be lower in the outside world though.
Of the 3711 passengers and crew 706 got infected and so far six are dead which clearly indicates a lower death-rate.
jimmiz
Well-Known Member
Don't forget the average age of the people who are doing holidays like this.
The death-rate should be higher than anywhere else...
Exactly.
2H76
Well-Known Member
Don't panic, a lot of people are apparently carrying the virus unknown to them and anyone else, and the symptoms don't materialise - so the death rate could be a lot lower in percentage terms. That's what I hear anyway, makes me wonder how long someone can "carry" the virus.
Thomas Cliche
Active Member
This is getting real serious. I wonder if the Ibiza's reservations are down too? Flights, hotels, club tickets... Stivi? Any indications that the virus is aslo hurting Ibiza?
Tomorrowland Winter in France also cancelled.
It has moved very quickly in Europe in the last 2 weeks or so. I'd be surprised if there was any noticeable effect at the moment. Cancellations over the coming weeks perhaps would be interesting.
Time is probably on Ibiza side at the moment - see where we are in 4 weeks time I reckon. A lot of airlines are bracing themselves for a downturn this summer. BA have already announced to staff they expect 6 months of enforced unpaid leave or offers of roles to become part time
Lufthansa reducing capacity by 20%, Finnair started a consultation around temporary layoffs for a short period
Life of Rye
Well-Known Member
Judging by the airline industry - Very likely
craig72
No longer active
Don't worry Wayne Lineker will find a vaccine..
stivi
Well-Known Member
ok...where to start...
first things first: in ibiza, we still have zero coronavirus cases as of today.
second - personally I think (and I am sure lots of you agree) this is just massively overhyped on a global level. it's basically a mutated flu, but if you aren't old or have a serious health problem already, it's 95% (or higher) sure you'd survive if you got it.
but of course everyone is a little insecure now. from our end we can't see any dip in bookings right now, but we're also realistic, depending how the next few weeks go, the island might be affected. wait and see. and don't panic in the meantime. on the upside, if it blows over (eventually it will), there might be discounts around and everyone will be more than ready for a holiday in the sun!
What if you carry it and give it to someone else that has less chances of surviving? I think that is the problem. Especially with the 2 week 'incubation' period - people will have it now and not know for a week or so.
WHO website has loads of useful stuff - much better reported than the media. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
stivi
Well-Known Member
this is what we'll find out soon....
This is exactly right. The most recent data I've seen indicates in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8% fatality rate and those aged 80 years and older had a fatality rate of 14.8%. There is also increased risk for those with weakened immune systems (cancer patients, HIV, on immune suppressant medication for Lupus, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Ulcerative Colitis, etc) as well as diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
The other problem is going to be overcrowding of the healthcare system. China built a hospital, Washington USA is buying an old hotel to convert to a hospital, Korea has only 5-6,000 cases confirmed and they are reporting being unable to handle the capacity already. In China many of the people who did not survive, would have had they been able to get access to the medical care they needed. The most recent data I could find indicated Spain has about 5,000 intensive care beds, which usually run about 80% capacity (1000 open).
There are almost 150 drug trials ongoing to evaluate the efficacy of anti-viral and other forms of treatment. There is hope that warm weather may slow the spread, but this is speculative at the moment. Until we have more information on this stuff, the only options we have are containment options like travel restrictions, quarantine, cancelling school, and restricting large gatherings of people.
The math is pretty ugly. I am of the opinion reality is better than the math, but worse than the general public is willing to acknowledge. I have been preparing to have honeymoon to BCN / IBZ cancelled by the airlines since Spain allowed Fallas to happen unmitigated.
stivi
Well-Known Member
the question is, how many of those elderly people would have died anyway? even with a regular neumonia elderly people have a risk of death.
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