☣ Coronavirus ☣

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Managed to find some data. The number of current occupied beds with covid (assume for covid?) Is less than 500. Good stuff. The problem is the nhs is running at around 110k bed occupancy but only has nominal capacity of 141,000 (https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers). So maybe this why they bricking it? (Btw in 70s nhs had 400k bed capacity ?)

Found a spreadsheet on here with detailed breakdown: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/

ain't allowed to upload excel docs here ?
 
In Madrid the restrictions are gatherings of no more than 6 people, bars and restaurants close at 22:00 and reduced capacity is limited to 50%. Maybe not even be able to go out for dinner on my bday:(
 
There’s some good accounts on twitter who push out the goverment data in graphs.
@UKCovid19Stats is a good one. As is @Anshul__k

This first graph, was done by Ed Conway of Sky. Showing what our cases will look like if we do continue to follow the trajectory of Spain and France as the CMO and CSA mentioned in their briefing. Not quite as scary or fear inducing, none the less it does show an increase. CBD0BA88-3896-4C9C-9E02-5E186E1CBBE2.jpeg

Here’s another graph showing nationwide “positive cases” by specimen date. Not showing an exponential increase. Not even close to it?

535A0D1F-5B4C-4EE1-8AAE-7D91FF0DCCDB.jpeg
Interesting that the “potential”
trajectory shown this morning stopped showing data after 15th Sept, which if included up to yesterday would show the blue lines remaining pretty level and wouldn’t have been so

The 7 day average of UK confirmed cases on 10th September was 3164. On 17th it was 3668. I’m not a mathematician or statistician, but I don’t believe that’s a doubling every 7 or 8 days?

I think we ll just wish they’d be open and honest about the data their using to come up with the message they deliver. Not picking anf chosing the bits which suit the fear narrative.

The chair of the 1922 comittee has came out today and said any further restrictions must be discussed in the house and put to a vote. We’re no longer to be treat like children. It’s part of why confidence in HMG is very low. When confidence is low, people are less likely to adhere, especially when there’s no proper, detailed rational.

Info on cases here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
 
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lee111s said:
There’s some good accounts on twitter who push out the goverment data in graphs.
@UKCovid19Stats is a good one. As is @Anshul__k

This first graph, was done by Ed Conway of Sky. Showing what our cases will look like if we do continue to follow the trajectory of Spain and France as the CMO and CSA mentioned in their briefing. Not quite as scary or fear inducing, none the less it does show an increase. View attachment 10446

Here’s another graph showing nationwide “positive cases” by specimen date. Not showing an exponential increase. Not even close to it?

View attachment 10447
Interesting that the “potential”
trajectory shown this morning stopped showing data after 15th Sept, which would show the blue lines remaining pretty level. The 7 day average of UK confirmed cases on 10th September was 3164. On 17th it was 3668. I’m not a mathematician or statistician, but I don’t believe that’s a doubling every 7 or 8 days?

Info on cases here https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
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Yeah it ain't, but it's hard to know wtf is going on with testing in a shambles.

The decision by head of testing (Dido) to slow down turn around in favour of [slightly] more capacity is a bit of a false step imho. 2/3rd tests are taking over 24hrs - 72hrs+. Batching tests etc would be more effective.

Now instead of a lag of a day on figures we have at least half a week.

Private lighthouse labs are opaque to public scrutiny & oversight unlike nhs labs?‍♂️

Lead by ?
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Yeah it ain't, but it's hard to know wtf is going on with testing in a shambles.

The decision by head of testing (Dido) to slow down turn around in favour of [slightly] more capacity is a bit of a false step imho. 2/3rd tests are taking over 24hrs - 72hrs+. Batching tests etc would be more effective.

Now instead of a lag of a day on figures we have at least half a week.

Private lighthouse labs are opaque to public scrutiny & oversight unlike nhs labs?‍♂️

Lead by ?
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Aye mate it’s a joke.

It’s been suggested by a few scientists that if the testing cyclea were reduced you’d not only pick up less folk with dead RNA but also increase the number of tests you could process, as they wouldn’t take so long.

As a layperson, that sounds like a win win, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone making these points to those who matter. If not for anything else than then to reason why they’re doing 40-45 cycles as opposed to suggested 35 max.
 
lee111s said:
Aye mate it’s a joke.

It’s been suggested by a few scientists that if the testing cyclea were reduced you’d not only pick up less folk with dead RNA but also increase the number of tests you could process, as they wouldn’t take so long.

As a layperson, that sounds like a win win, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone making these points to those who matter. If not for anything else than then to reason why they’re doing 40-45 cycles as opposed to suggested 35 max.
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Was watching interview on ch4 news with one of the scientists who helped setup a lighthouse lab. He said 2 things,

1) they should be batching* like other countries which massively improves capacity with little delay for some results. (He did also mention about standardizing cycles for tests)

2) there are now no scientist like him advising the lighthouses on how to improve things. It's completely black box and he has no idea who is leading them.

Sounds like proper No10/Cummings knows best shit show.

Should have increased public nhs labs. Have existing organisation and logistics structures. - nah sod that, let's privatise it ?‍♂️

*batching is when the lab puts say 5 swabs together and run as one test. If negative, happy days. If positive you run the 5 original swabs separately. Massively improves capacity at expense of having to run someone's test a max of 2 times (~8hrs)
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Was watching interview on ch4 news with one of the scientists who helped setup a lighthouse lab. He said 2 things,

1) they should be batching* like other countries which massively improves capacity with little delay for some results. (He did also mention about standardizing cycles for tests)

2) there are now no scientist like him advising the lighthouses on how to improve things. It's completely black box and he has no idea who is leading them.

Sounds like proper No10/Cummings knows best shit show.

Should have increased public nhs labs. Have existing organisation and logistics structures. - nah sod that, let's privatise it ?‍♂️

*batching is when the lab puts say 5 swabs together and run as one test. If negative, happy days. If positive you run the 5 original swabs separately. Massively improves capacity at expense of having to run someone's test a max of 2 times (~8hrs)
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Yeah I read an article about batch testing in Germany. Far too forward thinking for this government.

As above though, there’s no opposition or anyone asking the government the question such as why aren’t we batch testing.

Starmer has said he’ll agree with whatever measures Boris goes for?‍♂️
 
white_isle_calling said:
I think people in general would be a lot more willing to accept the various degrees of lockdown, if we didn't have a money-obsessed government diluting the message by encouraging us to spend, spend, spend and "get back to work" whilst simultaneously threatening us with tougher measures

It's a shame these educated people who smell BS didn't use their education and bullshit detection at the last election really, because the signs were right there for everybody to see
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And if the government de-prioritised the economy they would be accused of not caring about working people’s jobs? The majority of those that would be lost in the hospitality sector etc are minimum wage, sure the left wing press would have a field day if the Tories were perceived to throwing them to the wolves. They have made mistakes undoubtedly but it does seem they can’t win sometimes.

there are very, very few political leaders who are being made to look good in covid (I can think of New Zealand and possibly Germany). not a good phenomenon for poll ratings anywhere you look, which is exactly why it is is in no governments interests to prolong measures anymore than necessary, in spite of what the conspiracy theorists amongst us might argue!
 
Crawleytown said:
And if the government de-prioritised the economy they would be accused of not caring about working people’s jobs?
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Well I absolutely agree that there has to be a fine balance - and striking it will be no easy task, but I dont think this is even a left vs right debate anymore. It's about incompetence and lack of leadership. I'd honestly take May's government right now. And I hated her.

I struggle to see how our current one can get it wrong anymore, but I bet for sure that they will

Many nations may be unhappy with how thing are being handled currently, but have any of their leaders done so with the utter cluelessness of Boris and co? I can't say I've heard they have

Hospitality sector is f***ed. No hiding away from that fact. Which is why the government should look to support that industry with an extention of the furlough scheme, business grants and rent relief
 
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Apparently latest uk numbers is 1081 in hospital with covid. That's quite an increase from ~480 on Sept 15th. (Even if what counts as covid is a bit off, the doubling trend is there?)


Ps: NI has said no households mixing at houses and max 6 peeps and 2 households at other venues. From 6pm tues. Guess England will be same?)
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Apparently latest uk numbers is 1081 in hospital with covid. That's quite an increase from ~480 on Sept 15th. (Even if what counts as covid is a bit off, the doubling trend is there?)


Ps: NI has said no households mixing at houses and max 6 peeps and 2 households at other venues. From 6pm tues. Guess England will be same?)
Click to expand...

No need for anyone to say apparently. The data is all here (with the caveat discussed of what is actually a covid admission)

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

7th Sept England patients in hospital 540
20th Sept England patients in hospital 1.1k

2nd September UK patients in hospital 760
17th September UK patients in hospital 1.1k

Doesn’t seem to be UK wide data beyond 17th for that measure.

So about 2 weeks of doubling in England. In terms of numbers and future numbers, a far cry from the doubling every 7 days. As we know, more people will be going to hospital for many other respiratory issues and may also test “positive”.

To know for sure, they need to specify those in hospital receiving treatment specially for covid-19 related illness however, I doubt we’ll ever get that level of transparency.
 
lee111s said:
No need for anyone to say apparently. The data is all here (with the caveat discussed of what is actually a covid admission)

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

7th Sept England patients in hospital 540
20th Sept England patients in hospital 1.1k

2nd September UK patients in hospital 760
17th September UK patients in hospital 1.1k

Doesn’t seem to be UK wide data beyond 17th for that measure.

So about 2 weeks of doubling in England. In terms of numbers and future numbers, a far cry from the doubling every 7 days. As we know, more people will be going to hospital for many other respiratory issues and may also test “positive”.

To know for sure, they need to specify those in hospital receiving treatment specially for covid-19 related illness however, I doubt we’ll ever get that level of transp
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Interesting, been trying to find graphs like that! So looks staccato kind of situation with a slight up trend.

Suppose it kinda matches what happened to USA few months ago where the "lag" seemed to be more like 6 weeks.

So all in all hopefully some "moderate" measures might just keep a lid on it all over winter. No need to panic buy toilet paper ?
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Interesting, been trying to find graphs like that! So looks staccato kind of situation with a slight up trend.

Suppose it kinda matches what happened to USA few months ago where the "lag" seemed to be more like 6 weeks.

So all in all hopefully some "moderate" measures might just keep a lid on it all over winter. No need to panic buy toilet paper ?
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The no need comment wasn’t aimed at you btw, was whoever told you ?

Indeed. I can’t believe the CSA came on TV today and said, this isn’t a prediction, but look what could happen. Seriously?‍♂️
 
Twentynine said:
So in that context, how the heck is Hancock & Co keeping a second lockdown on a table 6 months later? We know test & trace is an utter failure, but how about NHS ICU capacity that was supposed to built out?
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You can never build enough ICU capacity to properly deal with an uncontrolled pandemic.

Let's assume one patient out of 100 ends up in the ICU. At the peak of the pandemic, about 1/3 of the population would be sick. This means 20 mio people in the UK would be sick, and 200.000 of those would need ICU treatment. Before the pandemic, the UK had only had about 5.000 ICU beds.

There is no way to increase the number of ICU beds by a factor of 40x within a few months. There is not enough equipment, there are not enough factories to produce the necessary equipment in time, there is not enough trained staff, there are not enough suitable buildings.

You can maybe increase the number of ICU beds twofold - it's a bigger increase than it seems, because most of existing ICU beds were occupied by non-Covid patients, while new beds would be used by Covid patients only. But it's just a little more breathing room - you still have to control the spread of the virus.
 
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