☣ Coronavirus ☣

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Hurr1cane said:
Worldometers lists UK cases recovered at 135 cases. That would presumably be the number of people hospitalized that were tested again prior to release. By my understanding people who have mild symptoms and are self quarantined at home would not be retested in places where test capacity is constrained.

I'm willing to cede that 135 is lower than the actual number since reporting suffers in the chaos but lets look at the math a bit. I'll say 50,000 of the 266,000 tests were repeats wth a or 216,000 novel patients... still only 25% positive rate. Lets tack on another 50,000 duplicate tests for fun for political leaders, health care workers, military, and others with lots of person to person contacts... 156,000 novel patients... 33% positive rate.

Even with a margin of 100,000 duplicate tests, you can see assuming a 50% rate of positive infection based on self reported symptoms is very high.
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Don’t forget that in the first few weeks pretty much all the UK testing was contact tracing and although led to some positives there were a lot of negatives in that time. So the bulk of the first 20-30,000 or so tests weren’t seriously ill patients. Likewise now there will be in the coming days and weeks a lot more frontline staff that are tested multiple times. Hence I still think the volume of UK testing data to assess positivity is a poor source. Agree that an arbitrary symptom app isn’t great either.
 
For anyone still unsure regarding there employment situation ie furloughed self employed, company director for a small business. Martin Lewis has released some very helpful videos to watch to explain what routes to go down, for those that will suffer financially.

Edit ( for UK residents )
 
cunninghamali said:
Yes 100%..cant risk releasing people too soon from lockdown....the results would be disastrous
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I get what you're saying but..

The Netherlands is not in full lockdown mode and we are still flattening the curve. So you can stop a lockdown but still have measures in place such as max 100 people in a bar or 1.5 meters distance between tables in a restaurant...you might get a small bump in infections again but by that time the IC capacity will be back to normal so it's manageable. So you end the lockdown, keep flattening the curve and slowly build on herd immunity after all because you will get some infections off course as long as you try to keep the R below R1. Step by step off course, schools first, then shops, bars, restaurants. Festivals and events after the summer perhaps or not at all this year.
I think that would be a reasonable and doable exit out of this disastrous situation. You can't lock people down forever or re-locking down.
 
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Yes but some factors rely on people and they are not so cooperative and people are hard to manage...

It will be better now to have longer lockdown or until necessary and really flatten the curve than release people to soon and have to go back to it being out of control and lockdown again

We will see soon from Netherlands and Sweden of what works best...
 
Baraca88 said:
International travel by June 1st? It would be amazing but in reality very hard to see.

I'm optimistic about the whole thing tbh. Pretty much back to normal by late August is my prediction.
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Think he’s slightly off (but who am i to say:lol:)
 
Baraca88 said:
International travel by June 1st? It would be amazing but in reality very hard to see.

I'm optimistic about the whole thing tbh. Pretty much back to normal by late August is my prediction.
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June 2021? ?‍♂️

Still see and hear of people not obeying the lockdown. Typically people with families split across multiple households and are coming and going several times a day. - the people to stay well clear of!
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Still see and hear of people not obeying the lockdown. Typically people with families split across multiple households and are coming and going several times a day. - the people to stay well clear of!
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Im not doing this on purpose, I promise but....

I'm a divorced dad with 2 kids.
My long time girlfriend has 2 kids too.
The kids come and go, because we both have arrangements signed by the divorce lawyer a few years ago.
If the Dutch lockdown was stricter...like Spain, Italy, UK?...I would not be able to see my children for a indefinite amount of time because governments have no exit plan in place. They just said Lockdown and we'll see what the future brings. I dont blame those people (if that's the category you're referring to with families divided over multiple households) not obeying the lockdown because most of the lockdowns are not smart, not reasonable and have not thought about these kind of circumstances and not have an end date in sight. You cannot just separate people from their children for weeks or perhaps even months..
 
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ElrowLovers said:
The Netherlands is not in full lockdown mode and we are still flattening the curve. So you can stop a lockdown but still have measures in place such as max 100 people in a bar
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Are bars open in the Netherlands??

Here in Germany, we don't have a full lockdown either, but bars, clubs and any other non-essential venues where people would congregate are closed. And as much as I love going out, I would find it insane to open them now. You cannot imagine a more suitable place for spreading the infection - a closed space with people spending several hours inside, and not everyone with a clear mind.

Maybe some outside drinking will be possible - it's easier to ensure social distancing this way, and being outside in fresh air would help. So maybe the Ibiza season 2020 will be with open air parties? Just dreaming :)
 
tclubber said:
Are bars open in the Netherlands??

Here in Germany, we don't have a full lockdown either, but bars, clubs and any other non-essential venues where people would congregate are closed. And as much as I love going out, I would find it insane to open them now. You cannot imagine a more suitable place for spreading the infection - a closed space with people spending several hours inside, and not everyone with a clear mind.

Maybe some outside drinking will be possible - it's easier to ensure social distancing this way, and being outside in fresh air would help. So maybe the Ibiza season 2020 will be with open air parties? Just dreaming :)
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No everything is closed, except for supermarkets and some other shops. Some are closed because they were obliged too, others closed because they get no clients anyway.

I suppose bars and clubs will eventually reopen with some restrictions such as a maximum amount of people on a certain amount of square meters like they do now in supermarkets? Ibiza open air parties possible, but definitely not on Ushuaia scale.
 
ElrowLovers said:
Im not doing this on purpose, I promise but....

I'm a divorced dad with 2 kids.
My long time girlfriend has 2 kids too.
The kids come and go, because we both have arrangements signed by the divorce lawyer a few years ago.
If the Dutch lockdown was stricter...like Spain, Italy, UK?...I would not be able to see my children for a indefinite amount of time because governments have no exit plan in place. They just said Lockdown and we'll see what the future brings. I dont blame those people (if that's the category you're referring to with families divided over multiple households) not obeying the lockdown because most of the lockdowns are not smart, not reasonable and have not thought about these kind of circumstances and not have an end date in sight. You cannot just separate people from their children for weeks or perhaps even months..
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Parents who share custody of children are allowed to see each other in the UK @ElrowLovers ?

Unless your ex partner is a whooper, like a good friend who has spent £1000's to see their child, who ex is using the situation to stop contact again.
 
claretclubber said:
Parents who share custody of children are allowed to see each other in the UK @ElrowLovers ?

Unless your ex partner is a whooper, like a good friend who has spent £1000's to see their child, who ex is using the situation to stop contact again.
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Yeah I have no problem if it is occasional, but from what I and other have seen, it seems some are not. Eg, multiple trips out and back every day with random different family members. Basically treating it as nothing has changed.
 
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