☣ Coronavirus ☣

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stivi said:
a quick search brought this up - seems they're not really sure yet on how long the antibodies last in your body. https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

I also consider myself a healthy person (as in no risk group, no overweight or lung problems etc etc etc), but I for one would actually prefer to keep it off for as long as possible. one, because I have a friend in switzerland who's had it (same like me, def not a risk group person) and even though he didn't have to go to the hospital or in intensive care, he was bedridden for weeks and said it was a truly awful experience. two, because even if the probability is small, your approach still looks a little like russian roulette to me. and three, the longer you don't have it, the bigger the chance someone's found a cure or vaccine for it in the meantime. but yeah I know, you're not a fan of the lockdown approach so I can imagine your response already ;)
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It really is a risk you just never know how you'll personally be hit. Friends best mate and best man at his wedding, who was active healthy runner with no known underlying conditions, died last night aged 36.
 
kimajy said:
It really is a risk you just never know how you'll personally be hit. Friends best mate and best man at his wedding, who was active healthy runner with no known underlying conditions, died last night aged 36.
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just goes to show people shouldn't be holding this 'I'm not in the vulnerable category' mentality because 36 is absolutely no age at all, still should be near prime condition
 
mr_why said:
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The last sentence translates to "it does not look like there will be summer in Pacha for this season".

Suppose that is all obvious, but just still feels so strange.

They have a club that is half way through a refurb just sitting there. Maybe I am overreacting, but imagine we never see some of these places open again?
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they are still selling tickets for May though aha surely that can't be right there is next to zero chance
 
feynman said:
Its basicly a good thing to save the freedom.
But gouverment has to know in wartimes and times like these , freedom of mivement can not be guranteed.
If things run bad , the number of victims are similar to a war , so you have to do similar things. Its for a limited time and it xhould he accepted by the people.
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We tend to be a bit extreme in that respect compared to the rest of the world, for better or worse. At a certain point entire municipalities, including the local government leaders will likely begin to ignore or openly defy any order from the federal government. We have a patchwork or gun laws and immigration enforcement that is a current reflection of this.

I agree that people would buy-in in a wartime situation where the enemy is concrete and easily understood and goals are clear. The problem that the government(s) have is that they can not really say this will be for a limited time. Nobody knows, unfortunately.
 
Michael Gove now self isolating. British cabinet is riddled ??‍♂️
feynman said:
US has 2000 additional deaths in 24 hours , caused by covid. If it goes further , there will be 3000 a day , next week.
Can see how dangerous this virus is.

Btw : US had 5000 deads per week in the pacific , to see what the number means: Its like a war
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Any idea when the crickets s
kimajy said:
It really is a risk you just never know how you'll personally be hit. Friends best mate and best man at his wedding, who was active healthy runner with no known underlying conditions, died last night aged 36.
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That's absolutely awful and although the stats suggest its the minority its still happening and as you say you have to take all precautions.

As I'm still at work in a factory with close to 200 people I've been screwing the nut with the drink and getting out running to ensure my cardio fitness is reasonably good in case I have to deal with it.
 
SeoulSaint said:
Interestingly in the uk the covid symptoms app has been used 1.5m times. So that suggests if even half had it that used the app and the many others that haven't used the app then we could already only a few weeks in be up to around 3-5% of the population covered. By the end of the year there’s no reason why the critical mass of 60% coverage can’t be reached.
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The UK has reported about 55,000 confirmed cases and 266,000 tests performed. Given the shortage of testing capacity in most places, tests are targeted at people with significant symptoms or contact with confirmed cases, and yet that is only a 20% positive rate. That would suggest that your estimate of 50% of the people on the app reporting symptoms having the virus is too high. The prevalence of the disease in the general population should be significantly below the rate of confirmed cases / tests performed when testing is so limited.
 
ElrowLovers said:
being alone in your home is not supposed to be the new normal.
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i've worked from home for 15 years - 100% institutionalised

I agree it's not great but it is the future as much for economic reasons as office rents shoot up in cities. these last few weeks will only hasten that trend

I've had colleagues for years who I've never met or spoken to. There are strangers on this forum I've had more interaction with + There are endless deeper questions about what cities are actually for if you can't appreciate them (journo Sophie Heawood made an interesting point on Twitter about this last week) but right now am mainly concerned with how to get through this weekend. Governments should do the right thing and reschedule the public holidays to the summer.
 
Hurr1cane said:
The UK has reported about 55,000 confirmed cases and 266,000 tests performed. Given the shortage of testing capacity in most places, tests are targeted at people with significant symptoms or contact with confirmed cases, and yet that is only a 20% positive rate. That would suggest that your estimate of 50% of the people on the app reporting symptoms having the virus is too high. The prevalence of the disease in the general population should be significantly below the rate of confirmed cases / tests performed when testing is so limited.
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As I understand it that 266k is not unique people but rather it’s the number of tests. Many people will have been tested more than once. So it’s not possible to use it as an accurate denominator for a rate. For example, people leaving hospital will be tested again.
 
claretclubber said:
Ryanair still selling the flight i'm meant to be on in May to Ibiza ? Only checked because they've sent an email about a fee-free date change
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they haven't cancelled mine yet but that's not till 28/06 I'm not holding hope like but I guess Ryanair are playing the long game
 
SeoulSaint said:
As I understand it that 266k is not unique people but rather it’s the number of tests. Many people will have been tested more than once. So it’s not possible to use it as an accurate denominator for a rate. For example, people leaving hospital will be tested again.
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Worldometers lists UK cases recovered at 135 cases. That would presumably be the number of people hospitalized that were tested again prior to release. By my understanding people who have mild symptoms and are self quarantined at home would not be retested in places where test capacity is constrained.

I'm willing to cede that 135 is lower than the actual number since reporting suffers in the chaos but lets look at the math a bit. I'll say 50,000 of the 266,000 tests were repeats wth a or 216,000 novel patients... still only 25% positive rate. Lets tack on another 50,000 duplicate tests for fun for political leaders, health care workers, military, and others with lots of person to person contacts... 156,000 novel patients... 33% positive rate.

Even with a margin of 100,000 duplicate tests, you can see assuming a 50% rate of positive infection based on self reported symptoms is very high.
 
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