#Brexit

Not even just with no deal either, due to the uncertainty SOME businesses aren't taking any chances and shifting their HQ's A SMALL PORTION OF THEIR STAFF to Germany or Holland.

In the same way Dyson is moving some operations to Singapore. It makes business sense but buisness will continue.

Nobody truly knows which way it will go and sure we are right to be concerned but again the deal on the table is dogshit. The whole thing needs renegotiating.

I'm on cloud 9 today anyway my club Blackpool FC has just entered receivership meaning the owners are being forced out. 4 years in exile we can finally return to our club :D
 
tick tock tick tock

still nobody any the wiser about what is about to happen...

I spoke to an accountant the other day - she casually mentioned that anyone moving to Spain and applying for an NIE is best advised to apply ASAP because it could get a whole lot harder (you may well get pushed to the back with all the Moroccans even if you have a sponsor / x thousand euros in the bank ). Similarly with getting Sp driving licence, get it done soon regardless of whether UK licence up for renewal.
 
Even more astounding given only a few posts ago the EU wasn't democratically elected ? I voted for an MEP to represent me in an un-elected parliament...FFS!

We as a country vote for roughly 10% of a parliament which itself has only a 1/4 say in power making across the EU (and that is generously assuming the European Parliament has equal powers as the Commission, the Council and the Court of Justice).

No point getting into the technicals too much but lets be honest, there is absolutely no way to paint the EU as anything even close to a democratic institution.
 
In the same way Dyson is moving some operations to Singapore. It makes business sense but buisness will continue.

Nobody truly knows which way it will go and sure we are right to be concerned but again the deal on the table is dogshit. The whole thing needs renegotiating.

I'm on cloud 9 today anyway my club Blackpool FC has just entered receivership meaning the owners are being forced out. 4 years in exile we can finally return to our club :D

You may try and downplay it by claiming it's only some businesses re-locating some staff, but my experience suggests otherwise - Multiple multi-national companies shifting headquarters (and therefore a large amount of tax payments too) to EU countries.

And surely the Dyson example is a key reason to doubt what the Brexiteers have been preaching? When one of the only business leaders actually in favour of Brexit is shifting as much of his business as he can to Singapore. Agree on the rest though, we're basically just repeating the same thing over and over and being laughed at the world over.

Fair cop on the football though, I'd say some more on it but I know what they're like and don't fancy being prosecuted by him :)
 
No point getting into the technicals too much but lets be honest, there is absolutely no way to paint the EU as anything even close to a democratic institution.
It clearly is a democratic institution. The people responsible for passing EU laws are voted for directly by the people they represent or nominated directly by the democratically elected governments of the people they represent. It's not perfect because there is no link between the population of a member state and their proportion of MEPs, which leads to some odd edge cases in the smaller countries, but we have as much say as France and Germany, they do not "rule over us" as is so often spouted by Brexiters.

In any case, Brext will lead unquestionably to us taking rules from the EU, without any opportunity to influence them, if we still wish to continue trading with them.
 
Is Japan a rule taker? Is Canada? Singapore? Australia?
They will have reached agreements with the EU on a wide range of things, from environmental protection to food safety standards, so they will have accepted certain EU "rules" as part of the deal (and vice-versa), which is why trade negotiations take years. A more realistic comparison would be Norway, who have around 30% of their laws explicitly or implicitly imposed on them by the EU, with barely any say in them whatsoever. Given the desperately weak negotiating position we are in, we'll probably get an even worse deal than that.
 
They will have reached agreements with the EU on a wide range of things, from environmental protection to food safety standards, so they will have accepted certain EU "rules" as part of the deal (and vice-versa), which is why trade negotiations take years. A more realistic comparison would be Norway, who have around 30% of their laws explicitly or implicitly imposed on them by the EU, with barely any say in them whatsoever. Given the desperately weak negotiating position we are in, we'll probably get an even worse deal than that.

We have the second largest GDP in the EU, compared to Norway who have the 13th. I agree our current political failures make us weaker than we otherwise might be but our economic clout still allows us to wield considerably more power in negotiations than the likes of Norway.
 
We have the second largest GDP in the EU, compared to Norway who have the 13th. I agree our current political failures make us weaker than we otherwise might be but our economic clout still allows us to wield considerably more power in negotiations than the likes of Norway.
Ah, the old "they need us more than we need them" chestnut! How's that working out so far? Those German car manufacturers are going to break down Angela Merkel's office door and demand a deal any day now I reckon.

I'd wager a significant amount of that GDP is generated as a result of our EU membership, if we leave with no deal that will be badly impacted in my opinion and we'll be back to being the basket case we were before we joined before very long.

Will Honda shut it's Swindon plant losing 3,500 jobs?
Not sure if this is directed at me but if you're suggesting that a 10% tariff on new cars exported from the UK and increased friction at the borders won't make a difference to a car manufacturer's long term plans then I think you're wrong. Only time will tell because, while irreversible decisions are being taken now, the impact of them will only really become apparent in the coming months and years. Obviously a car factory or plane factory cannot simply pack everything up in the back of a van and move overnight but, again, if you think they won't, I think you're wrong. I think Airbus will be the next to announce significant job losses at Filton now the A380 is being discontinued, that will be the cue to withdraw manufacturing from the UK.
 
I don’t think that they need us more than we need them. They can probably survive without us if they really want to cut their nose off to spite their face.

The reality is though we are the biggest economic European power to negotiate a trade deal with the EU so it simply can’t be compared to previous examples. It is without precedent.
 
Ah, the old "they need us more than we need them" chestnut! How's that working out so far? Those German car manufacturers are going to break down Angela Merkel's office door and demand a deal any day now I reckon.

I'd wager a significant amount of that GDP is generated as a result of our EU membership, if we leave with no deal that will be badly impacted in my opinion and we'll be back to being the basket case we were before we joined before very long.


Not sure if this is directed at me but if you're suggesting that a 10% tariff on new cars exported from the UK and increased friction at the borders won't make a difference to a car manufacturer's long term plans then I think you're wrong. Only time will tell because, while irreversible decisions are being taken now, the impact of them will only really become apparent in the coming months and years. Obviously a car factory or plane factory cannot simply pack everything up in the back of a van and move overnight but, again, if you think they won't, I think you're wrong. I think Airbus will be the next to announce significant job losses at Filton now the A380 is being discontinued, that will be the cue to withdraw manufacturing from the UK.
If they are not. Heres a reason as to why they should be. . .

"Some events intrude. And some fail to intrude. The promised reassertion of parliamentary control over Brexit was one of the latter. The House of Commons has rejected a cunning mechanism that might have procured a Brexit reversal. Then there is the category of events that did manage to intrude, but not in an obvious way.


An example would be Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffson car imports. But what has that got to with Brexit? The anticipation of the US president’s tariffs has the potential to change the way the EU will look at its future trading relationship with the UK.


To understand this, let us imagine that the Brexit talks were to break down. The UK would crash out of the EU in March next year with no transitional deal in place. British goods entering the EU would be subject to EU tariffs, and vice versa. The EU levies a 10 per cent tax on car imports. The UK could levy reciprocal tariffs.

Consider the position of German carmakers. According to the German association of the automotive industry, the country last year exported 769,000 cars to the UK, its single largest export market.

The US came second with 494,000 cars. German carmakers also export 258,000 German-made vehicles to China, plus those produced in US and Chinese factories. If the UK were forced into a cliff-edge Brexit in March, the German car industry would face tariffs in its two largest export markets within a few months of each other. Daimler-Benz issued a profit warning last week, and this only in relationship to the expected rise in Chinese tariffs on Mercedes cars made in the US. Just imagine what might happen once the US levies tariffs on European cars sometime in 2019, and possibly only a few months after Brexit.


If the UK were to join in a tariff war, the industry would suffer the commercial equivalent of a cardiac arrest. This would come on top of an escalating diesel emission scandal. Mercedes may need to recall 774,000 cars to remove software-cheating devices.


Add to this the long-term commercial impact of diesel bans in cities, the surge in sales of electric cars and the complex impact of artificial intelligence, and the outlook for the German industry has worsened dramatically since the Brexit referendum. Of course, the EU is not negotiating Brexit for the benefit of German industry. Nor should it. Angela Merkel said after the 2016 Brexit referendum that she does not want industry bosses to intervene in these delicate negotiations. But the German chancellor does not have the political room for manoeuvre she needs to persevere with a stance that could risk the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. The last thing she needs is an intra-European trade war. Geopolitics have also changed since the Brexit referendum.



Mr Trump poses a dual challenge for Germany and the EU — both on trade and foreign policy. His withdrawal of the US from the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate agreement have brought the EU and the UK closer together. Meanwhile, UK prime minister Theresa May has turned out to be a reliable ally for the EU.


The interests of the UK and the EU are more aligned now than they were two years ago. A customs union with a single market access for goods only would go a long way to serve the mutual interest, more than any of the other Brexit blueprints that carry the names of the countries with whom they were negotiated: Norway, Switzerland or Canada. It would minimise the economic effects on both sides, respect the commitments on the Irish border, and maintain the integrity of the single market.


For a deep customs union to work, manufactured goods would remain subject to the rules of the EU’s internal market. The UK would formally become a member of the single market. That said, the EU is in a position to offer a tailor-made customs union agreement, for goods but not services, with the various rights and obligations that come with this arrangement. Would this turn the UK into a vassal state as some of the Brexiters are claiming? Of course not. The UK would not be subject to the European treaties.


The customs union would set clear but finite limitations on sovereignty: no third-country trade agreements in respect of manufactured goods; acceptance of the EU’s product standards; and a minimum commitment on freedom of movement but well short of the obligations that apply today.


This is no comparison to the constraints on sovereignty that come with full EU membership. And these concessions are trivial compared to the crippling economic, social and political costs of a cliff-edge, no-deal Brexit.

The decisive argument in favour of a customs union is that important events have intruded since the referendum, for the UK and the EU too."

https://www.ft.com/content/c06b1762-761d-11e8-b326-75a27d27ea5f
 
If they are not. Heres a reason as to why they should be. . .
They're not, for two reasons. The first is that it would not make any difference, it is the EU as a whole that will negotiate any deal not Angela Merkel. Secondly, and what the British completely fail to understand, is that German industry generally believes the good of the EU is worth the pain.

If anything, it would be the Irish and the Dutch knocking people's door down, they will be the worst affected, by far.
 
They're not, for two reasons. The first is that it would not make any difference, it is the EU as a whole that will negotiate any deal not Angela Merkel. Secondly, and what the British completely fail to understand, is that German industry generally believes the good of the EU is worth the pain.

If anything, it would be the Irish and the Dutch knocking people's door down, they will be the worst affected, by far.
So your saying just because the EU are negotiating on behalf of Germany etc there economy won't be hit if they have a tariff war with us? I don't believe that for a second
 
So your saying just because the EU are negotiating on behalf of Germany etc there economy won't be hit if they have a tariff war with us? I don't believe that for a second
That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that the EU is negotiating on behalf of all of the member states, not just Germany (or any other individual state) in particular. Furthermore, all states must ratify any deal, and what's good for Germany might not be good for Spain, for example. This means that if the EU as a whole is likely to value the integrity of the union higher than the individual interests of industries in the specific states themselves. It's not in the interest of any state, or the EU, to offer us a deal which is as good as the one we have, that much ought to be self evident. Given we are six weeks away from Brexit now and there is no significant lobbying from any European industry to EU to improve the deal on offer, I think it's also self-evident that the above is true also.

I live and work in Germany and I think most people in Britain would be surprised that Brexit is not a massive issue here, apart from viewing us with a mixture of sadness, bemusement and pity (much like many of us view Trump's America), it's not really a pressing issue, they have long since moved on and see it as little more than an annoying distraction.
 
6 weeks to go and still none of us any the wiser

TM taking it to the wire, simultaneously trying to call everyone's bluff.

when she could so easily have just asked the Commons to suspend everything on the grounds that the UK simply isn't ready materially, logistically, politically, psychologically, economically or emotionally for such a major transition.
 
That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying that the EU is negotiating on behalf of all of the member states, not just Germany (or any other individual state) in particular. Furthermore, all states must ratify any deal, and what's good for Germany might not be good for Spain, for example. This means that if the EU as a whole is likely to value the integrity of the union higher than the individual interests of industries in the specific states themselves. It's not in the interest of any state, or the EU, to offer us a deal which is as good as the one we have, that much ought to be self evident. Given we are six weeks away from Brexit now and there is no significant lobbying from any European industry to EU to improve the deal on offer, I think it's also self-evident that the above is true also.

I live and work in Germany and I think most people in Britain would be surprised that Brexit is not a massive issue here, apart from viewing us with a mixture of sadness, bemusement and pity (much like many of us view Trump's America), it's not really a pressing issue, they have long since moved on and see it as little more than an annoying distraction.
I was referring to that the Germans should be knocking on EU door pursuading them to go for as good a deal as possible with the British, instead letting of a no deal happen by playing hard ball. Which you said that it wouldn't make any difference. (Mentioned Germany because you mentioned German car manufacturers)

All EU members should be hoping for a deal with us to be honest, why would they not want a deal? I understand that whats good for one country, isn't for another. Which is one of the reasons I voted leave in the first place.

Most of the British general public have had the attitude "just get on with it" since we voted leave. its mostly politicians, news channels that are bringing it up.
 
Last edited:
6 weeks to go and still none of us any the wiser

TM taking it to the wire, simultaneously trying to call everyone's bluff.

when she could so easily have just asked the Commons to suspend everything on the grounds that the UK simply isn't ready materially, logistically, politically, psychologically, economically or emotionally for such a major transition.

Running the clock down so MPs’ choice can only be between her deal and no deal is probably the best available option. Takes pie in the sky options from hardline leavers and remainers off the table.
 
Back
Top