☣ Coronavirus ☣

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djedwardsmith said:
Not to piss on the parade but it is slightly concerning that early tests show that the Oxford vaccine offers minimal protection to the South African mutation - this is why mutations are so important and explains why the government are reacting so urgently to try and pin down any outbreaks of it.

In the long term, it shouldn't prove too much of an issue as they are already working on tweaking the vaccine and there's every chance it will end up being a yearly booster with a unique formula each year relevant to any mutations, but that this particular mutation has enabled the virus to mask itself is worrying in terms of supressing the spread of the virus in the immediate future.
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Tying in to the general issue that high prevalence creates the conditions in which mutations happen so the higher the prevalence (symptomatic or not) the more likely it is something happens to send us all back round this loop. This is one of the reasons I'm so intolerant of people banging drums about opening stuff up again before that prevalence is driven right down and most people vaccinated. It's a bit like popping a pin in a tyre before you go out for a drive !

Hate to say it but it may make more sense to leave borders closed this Summer even if prevalence is down. Looking at how NZ and Aus are pretty much enjoying full normal lives right now, it's a trade-off I might even be willing to make for a year.
 
djedwardsmith said:
Not to piss on the parade but it is slightly concerning that early tests show that the Oxford vaccine offers minimal protection to the South African mutation - this is why mutations are so important and explains why the government are reacting so urgently to try and pin down any outbreaks of it.

In the long term, it shouldn't prove too much of an issue as they are already working on tweaking the vaccine and there's every chance it will end up being a yearly booster with a unique formula each year relevant to any mutations, but that this particular mutation has enabled the virus to mask itself is worrying in terms of supressing the spread of the virus in the immediate future.
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From what I've read it's from a smallish sample size of 1000 young (30ish) people getting the jab in SA. And shows doesn't protect against mild illness and so also not preventing transmission either.

However they don't know if protects against hospitalization or death due to the participants been young and health, but suspect it does protect against that.

They are going to do wider study to understand how effective is in the older age groups.

www.theguardian.com

Oxford Covid jab less effective against South African variant, study finds

University of the Witwatersrand and Oxford University research shows vaccine has reduced efficacy against mutation
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Also mass gatherings looks like been advised against for travellers. Which makes sense in that don't want to import new variants. Hard to know what situation will be actually like in 3 months time tbh 🤷‍♂️

uk.news.yahoo.com

Large events like Cheltenham Festival are unlikely to happen for a 'few years', says expert

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said major events like the Cheltenham Festival are unlikely to happen for a 'few years'.
uk.news.yahoo.com uk.news.yahoo.com
(Yahoo cause others are paywalled 🤦‍♂️)
 
MrHullMysterious said:
From what I've read it's from a smallish sample size of 1000 young (30ish) people getting the jab in SA. And shows doesn't protect against mild illness and so also not preventing transmission either.

However they don't know if protects against hospitalization or death due to the participants been young and health, but suspect it does protect against that.

They are going to do wider study to understand how effective is in the older age groups.

www.theguardian.com

Oxford Covid jab less effective against South African variant, study finds

University of the Witwatersrand and Oxford University research shows vaccine has reduced efficacy against mutation
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Also mass gatherings looks like been advised against for travellers. Which makes sense in that don't want to import new variants. Hard to know what situation will be actually like in 3 months time tbh 🤷‍♂️

uk.news.yahoo.com

Large events like Cheltenham Festival are unlikely to happen for a 'few years', says expert

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said major events like the Cheltenham Festival are unlikely to happen for a 'few years'.
uk.news.yahoo.com uk.news.yahoo.com
(Yahoo cause others are paywalled 🤦‍♂️)
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A few years 😮
 
Weather in the NE UK absolutely horrendous and found this weekend probably toughest mentally all lockdown(s).

After doing dry January skelped a full keg of Lowenbrau on Perfect Draft which I highly recommend folks on Friday night which probably didn’t help.

Nightmare not getting out for fresh air etc

Hard going this but positive news as all my folks and in laws have had there jabs.
 
CraigyB said:
Weather in the NE UK absolutely horrendous and found this weekend probably toughest mentally all lockdown(s).

After doing dry January skelped a full keg of Lowenbrau on Perfect Draft which I highly recommend folks on Friday night which probably didn’t help

Nightmare not getting out for fresh air etc

Hard going this but positive news as all my folks and in laws have had there jabs.
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Yeah I’d have to agree with this with reference to the weather and feeling of being a prisoner in your own home

My missus described this weekend as hitting her ‘lockdown wall’ 😐

Not helped by the fact I’ve just left again for work and starting a 3 day journey of airport hopping just to get there.

I’m looking forward to my first ever visit to the Paris Charles De Gaulle airport tomorrow, I’ve heard it’s a great airport :D
 
FlatErik said:
I know I would not use the word fear porn again, but news outlets should not publish stuff like that...No big events for a few years 'says expert X or Y'. Come on. Not gonna happen.
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No-one knows. Weirdest thing in all of this is people expecting politicians to say x will happen by time y when there's no real template.

I just got an e-mail through saying the Jessie Ware gig I had booked for April has been re-scheduled for December, so fingers crossed. :lol:
 
I mean I hated it but I'd just come off a 9 hour flight and had to sit around and wait for a connection for 4 hours - the Air France lounge is nice though.

Really interesting (if not slightly concerning) read on the Oxford vaccine here: https://www.ft.com/content/d0fd6c4c-939a-43c7-a9b9-47c8d3cab253

Explains why so many European nations are now refusing to allow it to be used on their over 65's (Spain now joining France and Germany in doing so), and to row back to an earlier comment, South Africa have also paused all roll-out of the Oxford vaccine based on their own results of it's efficacy against their variant.

I think all those people who thought we would be vaccinated and clear by the summer may be doing some re-adjusting in the coming weeks.
 
djedwardsmith said:
I mean I hated it but I'd just come off a 9 hour flight and had to sit around and wait for a connection for 4 hours - the Air France lounge is nice though.

Really interesting (if not slightly concerning) read on the Oxford vaccine here: https://www.ft.com/content/d0fd6c4c-939a-43c7-a9b9-47c8d3cab253

Explains why so many European nations are now refusing to allow it to be used on their over 65's (Spain now joining France and Germany in doing so), and to row back to an earlier comment, South Africa have also paused all roll-out of the Oxford vaccine based on their own results of it's efficacy against their variant.

I think all those people who thought we would be vaccinated and clear by the summer may be doing some re-adjusting in the coming weeks.
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Copy and paste the article perhaps?
 
MrHullMysterious said:
Something that isn't paywalled. Hate paywalled sites 🤣

SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals

Subscription and open access journals from SAGE Publishing, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
journals.sagepub.com journals.sagepub.com

Results: Compared with its Nordic peers, Sweden had a higher incidence rate across all ages, a higher COVID-19-related death rate only partially explained by population demographics, a higher death rate in seniors’ care, and higher all-cause mortality. Sweden had approximately half as much mobility change as its Nordic neighbours
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Yes,

alot higher here compared to neighbouring countries (Denmark, Norway and Finland). Many experts here think alot of it has to to with our "Sport Holiday" early march 2020, when alot of Swedes go skiing in the alps (other Nordic countries does not have this as much).

Basically, we had to many imported cases early and the government was quite slow to react, initially.

During wave 1, most of our cases/deaths were in immigrant heavy areas outside of the big cities (multigeneration homes etc). Other parts (like inner city Stockholm) almost had zero cases.
 
FlatErik said:
I know I would not use the word fear porn again, but news outlets should not publish stuff like that...No big events for a few years 'says expert X or Y'. Come on. Not gonna happen.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying I think this will come to pass but surely Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, is a reasonable person for the press to quote ?
 
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here's another ibiza update to start the week with.

numbers are definitely going in the right direction now after what has been the worst month (or say six weeks) n the entire pandemic so far. hospital pressure is still very high and 50 covid deaths since the start of the year here on ibiza alone is an ugly number.

during the last two weeks, all municipios have done mass testings and while in the first two (i-town and san an) quite a lot of cases were detected, the latter two (santa eulalia/san juan combined and san jose just this weekend) revealed far less cases. this coincides with the daily recounts which have become far better now.

here are 14d incidence and 7d incidence as per yesterday

1612787673206.png 1612787689203.png

so as you can see, even though ibiza is still way above all other balearic islands, the drop is noticeable now.

the health department responsibles made it clear they'll take their time now during the coming weeks (probably months) to lift restrictions one by one. the main goal is to get to a really good epidemiologic situation so that then tourism can start up again. the tourism responsibles seem to have already forfeited easter and are now hoping to be able to start the season in may or june.

2% of balearic population have had their first vaccine jab, a little over 1% have had both.
 
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