☣ Coronavirus ☣
- Thread starter ibiza77
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What is it you do?
Today, the official line from the UK government was that they're not activating lockdown measures yet, in part, because they know that the goodwill of the people will only last so long. (in addition to needing to time it right)
3-4 weeks in quarantine at push and then people will be climbing walls.
There's only so much Netflix you can watch.
After being deep in the brown stuff, China are coming out the other side. (I do write that with a pinch of salt at the hideous death toll and I dont mean to trivialise) I guess all eyes on Italy now to see how they cope with the measures and the resulting effect
Hally
Well-Known Member
Not sure China really are, they've held it by locking down 15,000,000 people but it will come back as population still naive to the disease.
I work with older people, teaching mainly. Most people are working on the only way through this is let the population get infected its only the rate of infection you can control. We are expecting it to be very, very bad
cunninghamali
Well-Known Member
I will be in the pub tomorrow I need a drink after staying in all week
I wont dispute it's going to get bad, but when the overwhelming majority of infected are going to make a relatively quick and full recovery there's going to come a point when people are just going to get on with life.
And that isn't (only) a selfish "it doesn't effect me" mindset. There's lots of reasons why sitting idly by doing nothing for weeks, months on end just isnt realistic
And that isn't (only) a selfish "it doesn't effect me" mindset. There's lots of reasons why sitting idly by doing nothing for weeks, months on end just isnt realistic
Hally
Well-Known Member
Most of us will be fine, the problem is the NHS just gets by day to day. Add thousands of people with severe respiratory problems it will collapse, that's without 5% to 10% of the workforce off sick. We lost a single Dr in A and E with suspected Coronavirus and that was a nightmare . The healthcare system in Northern Italy was collapsing, that's why they shut the country down to slow it. It's all about trying to not get too many infected at once but that's hard as so easy to catch and 0 immunity
Half the ventilators in UK than Italy and its horrific there
The whole point of the quarantines is not to stop / eradicate the virus. It is to spread the infection out over a longer period of time.
Italy is a country of 60mil people and is reporting 15,000 cases. Let’s assume they are missing the 80% of mild / asymptomatic cases. That still puts the total at < 100,000 cases - or .1% of the population. Maybe there’s a million — still 1.5% of total population.
Said another way, 98.5% of the country still has a huge vested interest in restricting your activity. I’d expect governments to slowly open up after initial full quarantines but be quick to enforce small targeted ones when clusters re-emerge.
I should add, I don’t think it will be like this for months and months.
Clinical trials on treatments from China / Korea should be releasing data in a few weeks. Countries will improve testing capabilities and contact tracing methods. Airports will have security watching just looking for anyone to cough and test them. Leaders will act faster and civilians will work harder to avoid being right back in isolation.
We can get to a place of equilibrium where society can still function with this virus present but we have to buy time.
Clinical trials on treatments from China / Korea should be releasing data in a few weeks. Countries will improve testing capabilities and contact tracing methods. Airports will have security watching just looking for anyone to cough and test them. Leaders will act faster and civilians will work harder to avoid being right back in isolation.
We can get to a place of equilibrium where society can still function with this virus present but we have to buy time.
SeoulSaint
Active Member
Trials take months not weeks. I work in the industry and I’m sceptical a commercial vaccine will be available this time next year. It’s not impossible but it will be something never done before.
I’m with you on vaccines. I’m more referring to China and South Korea testing existing medications for efficacy since early Feb.
Hydroxychloroquine / Chloroquine has been used for many years for malaria. They don’t have to prove safety, just marginal improvement in effectiveness for off label use.
Remdesivir was developed for Ebola and had already cleared safety trials. I believe it is in Phase IIIB with results expected in April for efficacy against corona virus.
Production / distribution would take time but repurposing existing medication cuts down on the development timeline significantly
William2021
Active Member
Will they close the beaches and set passenger limits for the crowded disco buses? I guess there won't be any need if they sadly close the nightclubs. Planning to fly to Ibiza in September. I really hope this will all be over by then. Looking at travel insurance right now.
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AntonioGeordio
Well-Known Member
Interesting how this is all panning out and the wider implications of it all. I work in a multinational team, but we are mainly Europeans.
There’s an Italian bloke in one crew that is finishing his rotation soon, but won’t be going home by choice. Doesn’t want to run the risk of infection or being blocked from travelling back out of Italy. He’s going to wait out in schipol/Holland until his next rotation starts.
Obviously we are ripping the piss out of him saying some people will do anything to avoid the wife.
A Croatian lad yesterday was travelling home but his Lufthansa flight got cancelled last minute.
Luckily a full squad of German lads rotated our earlier in the week, so they are home and dry. They are grumpy at the best of times.
More to follow with Maltese, Lithuanians, few dodgy Russians, Jocks, Portugeezers, a Spaniard, Dutch etc
I expect more complications in the following days and weeks.
Contingency plans are in place if the virus reaches us at our work location. 2 week movements lock down and infected personnel evacuated by emergency helicopter.
I’m hoping to rotate out next week ?
There’s an Italian bloke in one crew that is finishing his rotation soon, but won’t be going home by choice. Doesn’t want to run the risk of infection or being blocked from travelling back out of Italy. He’s going to wait out in schipol/Holland until his next rotation starts.
Obviously we are ripping the piss out of him saying some people will do anything to avoid the wife.
A Croatian lad yesterday was travelling home but his Lufthansa flight got cancelled last minute.
Luckily a full squad of German lads rotated our earlier in the week, so they are home and dry. They are grumpy at the best of times.
More to follow with Maltese, Lithuanians, few dodgy Russians, Jocks, Portugeezers, a Spaniard, Dutch etc
I expect more complications in the following days and weeks.
Contingency plans are in place if the virus reaches us at our work location. 2 week movements lock down and infected personnel evacuated by emergency helicopter.
I’m hoping to rotate out next week ?
Correct. I hadn't implied otherwise. My post was merely a comment on human behaviour.
The core point still remains. Our country, any country, the continent, the world cannot grind to a halt until November.
The consequence of doing that would be far worse than "getting on with it".
After a few days, the novelty of being at home is going to wear off real fast. Most people can't work from home. Those that can't wont be able to survive off the £93 SSP a week. Self-employed will be forced to consider job seekers (or worse, universal credit) that means weeks deferred payment for a paltry sum. And that's just finances. We have to consider mental wellbeing too. You tried spending 24/7 cooped up with your family for days on end!!
After that initial - let's for argument sake say month's - period, people will be returning to work through necessity more than anything.
Hoteliers, airlines, bar staff, DJs, tour operators are all livelihoods too. You really think these professions are gonna stay at home whilst everybody else gets back to it? I expect there to be business casualties in the leisure and tourism sector as a result of this. Those that survive will be more determined to get back at it and pick things up. The same as mechanics, lawyers, shop assistants, vets......
Then let's consider the effect of weeks isolation on the human mindset
The quarantine period isnt going to feel like a holiday, it's going to be tortuous and stressful. Once we get back to work, we'll slog away initially and then after a few weeks we're going to be thinking "I deserve a holiday" Perfect, because guess what, it's suddenly become very affordable!
Look at it this way
Worst case: our worst fears are realised ie. 5% mortality rate. Amid the tradegy we're going to yearn for that piece of escapism. To forget our worries
Best case: little much changes and we carry on as we are
Ergo any scenario that falls between those to extremes, we're going to want to entertain ourselves. We're going to want to go to the cinema, go bowling, go to restaurants, meet up with friends. We're going to want to go clubbing and on holiday.
To think any differently is pretty grim
WuWei
Active Member
If it means anything, Gilead has been ramping up both production and production capability of remdesivir, which to me suggests that it's gotta be at least somewhat effective. Otherwise, I would think that they could easily produce enough for the ongoing trials. One of the things that I read was that they hoped that it would help protect health care workers, who I would assume, would be the first to receive it prophylactically, should it prove effective. I'm really hoping that this drug works, as that would be a huge step in allowing the world to resume a "new normal" way of functioning short of these mass quarantines. I was all booked for the openings but had to cancel, however, I'm going to rebook for the closings if the season is somehow salvaged.
WuWei
Active Member
On a cellular level, zinc has been shown to significantly decrease viral replication. However, since zinc is a positively charged ion, it's difficult to increase intracellular levels as it requires something to get it across the cell membrane. That's where chloroquine comes in as it somehow acts as a bit of a zinc transporter. One report that I read, at least two weeks ago, was that the Chinese were not only testing out remdesivir, but also a combination of remdesivir and chloroquine. Apparently, remdesivir has proven itself to be a tolerable or safe drug even in significant amounts, whereas chloroquine has a whole host of nasty side effects, most of which affect one's eyes. Additionally, chloroquine has a long half-life such that if you start experiencing bad side effects, it can take an extremely long time for the problems to resolve. "Because of the long half-life....retinopathy can continue for over 6 months, and studies have shown ongoing changes for up to 20 years after cessation...." Whew - a rock and a hard place, for sure....
The Sun God
Active Member
2 things
firstly I agree working from home can be boring as hell but I've managed it for nearly 15 years. maybe I did go a bit nuts at times (ahem..) but there's ways and means of alleviating the tedium and varying the day. even if it gets to the stage where everyone is effectively 'grounded' then consider it an opportunity to do shit you've never got round to. secondly, in most cases, it probably doesn't mean not being able to leave the building, especially if you live in the arse end of nowhere or near the countryside or a park or sea, but probably does mean cutting out social contact. there's risk with anyone you know. i'm supposed to be going on a hike on Sunday with about 8 people but dunno now if a good idea even if I keep some distance. it's like one of those games where you don't know where the booby trap is. we should also be thinking not just in terms of whether we ourselves get it but whether we can pass it on to the more vulnerable even without realising. esp if the symptoms don't appear immediately. should I be avoiding my own mum...? that's when it really hits home. so imo the boredom is the necessary price
Yes, I agree as I also work from home (more than i should - it would be beneficial to venture out to a coffee shop or library once and a while) but even if you, I or anybody else has adapted to that lifestyle, it doesn't negate that the vast majority of jobs - particularly the ones that keep the country moving - can't be performed from home.
And yes, also take your point 2. My scenario was a pretty bleak, dystopic CODE RED exaggeration (to make the point, not because I'm doom mongering), I'll admit
And yes, also take your point 2. My scenario was a pretty bleak, dystopic CODE RED exaggeration (to make the point, not because I'm doom mongering), I'll admit
stivi
Well-Known Member
now just don‘t head to the pub but stay home
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