☣ Coronavirus ☣

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From Stivi's other thread
https://www.diariodeibiza.es/pitius...oronavirus-ibiza-ibiza-gay-pride/1136961.html How fantastic that would be if to could take place and us Brits get there, it's given me something to grasp; I've already got pre-booked 5 nights in Formentera at the end of Sept, so fingers crossed I can extend that. Then October and November I'll be chasing the sun to the south of Spain and maybe Cyprus or Malta. If only we knew thta by mid-Sept things would be back to normal-ish.

But if large groups are still banned that's the end of the Pride season throughout Europe.

Edit; Q for Stivi - those figures in the other thread will contain delayed infromation from easter which is now appearing?
 
2H76 said:
Edit; Q for Stivi - those figures in the other thread will contain delayed infromation from easter which is now appearing?
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yes those should be included now. it's still 5K new cases in the entire country, but it seems lots of those are asymptomatic cases which got randomly tested or only have mild symptoms rather than people that are very sick.

in today's press conference the chief medic seemed positive in that spain's evolution is really good now.

parties are still very far away that's obvious, but I'm sure we will soon be let out of our houses again, hope in may or latest june we can start seeing our friends agai and I still see a tiny chance for your formentera trip at the end of the season...
 
In the uk briefing they where talking about the serological tests for antibodies saying there where not reliable enough. Maybe that explains why wide variation in the lab based antibody tests at min?
 
AntonioGeordio said:
Interesting decision by EasyJet.

I'd imagine social distancing is nigh on impossible on a budget airline.

The only result I can see from this is a steep hike in ticket prices. A sign of things to come probably.
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Joke move that in my eyes. You still going to be in a queue getting on the plane, in the terminal etc, the whole journey from car parking at departure airport to exiting the destination airport would need to changed to comply with social distancing.

And those bendy buses at airports are Coronavirus hotspots! Packed in against someones armpit for 15mins with everyone sweating cos they cant handle the heat
 
stivi said:
just watching news. in spain, they are doing lots of tests to random people to check for antibodies. and it seems that in some of the autonomías (our regions), up to 70% of test results came back POSITIVE. this means thousands of people have had the virus without noticing symptoms.

good news this
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MrHullMysterious said:
In the uk briefing they where talking about the serological tests for antibodies saying there where not reliable enough. Maybe that explains why wide variation in the lab based antibody tests at min?
Click to expand...

It has been very difficult to get reliable antibody testing and running. On a population of 100 people, with 5% disease penetration, a perfect test (leaving sensitivity vs specificity aside) would give you 5 positive and 95 negative. A 95% would give you 10 positives (5 positive + 5 false positives) and 90 negatives. But some of these tests are in the 60-70% range which gives you 5 positives + 30 false positives. In the US the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was giving conditional approval and saying we will review your trial results when we can... which led to a lot of bad tests and some outright scams.

This is a huge problem if you are telling people with false positives (think they have immunity but don't) that they are safe to go back out into society. On top of that, government policy will be much different if they think 30+% of the country has been exposed and has some level of immunity versus 5%.
 
Digital2013 said:
Joke move that in my eyes. You still going to be in a queue getting on the plane, in the terminal etc, the whole journey from car parking at departure airport to exiting the destination airport would need to changed to comply with social distancing.

And those bendy buses at airports are Coronavirus hotspots! Packed in against someones armpit for 15mins with everyone sweating cos they cant handle the heat
Click to expand...

I can't see this being too much of a problem. if there's a will there's a way. queues with the security distance as you do now going to the supermarket. same for the buses, just filled half at max etc.

this thing could go on for a while so I truly think the above described could be our 'new normal' until we have a cure or vaccine.
 
Hurr1cane said:
It has been very difficult to get reliable antibody testing and running. On a population of 100 people, with 5% disease penetration, a perfect test (leaving sensitivity vs specificity aside) would give you 5 positive and 95 negative. A 95% would give you 10 positives (5 positive + 5 false positives) and 90 negatives. But some of these tests are in the 60-70% range which gives you 5 positives + 30 false positives. In the US the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) was giving conditional approval and saying we will review your trial results when we can... which led to a lot of bad tests and some outright scams.

This is a huge problem if you are telling people with false positives (think they have immunity but don't) that they are safe to go back out into society. On top of that, government policy will be much different if they think 30+% of the country has been exposed and has some level of immunity versus 5%.
Click to expand...

thanks for your insights again, they are always appreciated.
 
stivi said:
I can't see this being too much of a problem. if there's a will there's a way. queues with the security distance as you do now going to the supermarket. same for the buses, just filled half at max etc.

this thing could go on for a while so I truly think the above described could be our 'new normal' until we have a cure or vaccine.
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Thinking if flights are fewer than, what, 25% of normal then the airport may hev the room to keep everyone apart, and the buses - well it is an issue but when you leave the plane, you have to queue apart, then load the bus 1/3 full and there should be other buses along quickly if the airports' under capacity. But on saying that, if there are fewer flights then the gates with walkways should be more available.
If Easyjet's system is in play then tickets should cost a third more to compensate for the empty seats. Otherwise it's a loss to them.
 
2H76 said:
Thinking if flights are fewer than, what, 25% of normal then the airport may hev the room to keep everyone apart, and the buses - well it is an issue but when you leave the plane, you have to queue apart, then load the bus 1/3 full and there should be other buses along quickly if the airports' under capacity. But on saying that, if there are fewer flights then the gates with walkways should be more available.
If Easyjet's system is in play then tickets should cost a third more to compensate for the empty seats. Otherwise it's a loss to them.
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Was thinking the same with the pricing. It is what it is I suppose, I imagine cheap air travel is going to be a thing of the past after this. I know most airlines operate on a tight budget as it is.

Social distancing is achievable in the airports and buses etc, but just missing out one row of seats won't fulfill this 2m gap that is preached. Especially on a plane.

This whole thing is an absolute headache ?

Be great if we could just switch the world off for 20 seconds. Then switch it back on, and everything was reset without Coivd 19.
 
How can there be such discrepancy between developed nations? Some countries are rolling out antibody tests and yet we're adamant that a reliable one doesn't exist?
I know as a Brit it's easy to get caught into mentality that the UK has the highest standard across the board (also see our attitude to any overseas law enforcement), but what's the real story here?
Spain is not a science or medical backwater. And if the Germans are trusting their test, then surely nobody here would suggest they would settle for anything less than a very high accuracy rate

I think I have my own suspicions, but curious what other people think
 
Just received this from another site I'm a member of

The Canary Islands and Balearic presidents have asked that island ports and airports be the last ones to open once the lockdown ends
The petition is designed to local show voters, upset by suggestions that they be the Guinea pigs of Spain with an early exit to lockdown, that the government puts their health above the economy. It also shows that they don't believe there is any economic benefit to a quick restart of the tourist industry given the travel restrictions in place across Europe.
The president said that the Canary Islands are the worst affected area of Spain economically and asked for ERTE payments to be extended for workers in the tourism sector.
 
Bellagio said:
Just received this from another site I'm a member of

The Canary Islands and Balearic presidents have asked that island ports and airports be the last ones to open once the lockdown ends
The petition is designed to local show voters, upset by suggestions that they be the Guinea pigs of Spain with an early exit to lockdown, that the government puts their health above the economy. It also shows that they don't believe there is any economic benefit to a quick restart of the tourist industry given the travel restrictions in place across Europe.
The president said that the Canary Islands are the worst affected area of Spain economically and asked for ERTE payments to be extended for workers in the tourism sector.
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I understand their concern about being "guinea pigs" and the risk of a second wave of CV, but they then want money for sitting around doing nothing? R-i-g-h-t.
To me the best solution is to open up but for Spanish domestic flights only, once Spain is wholly under control. And then from other parts that are also proved to be under control. If that happens ans there is little Spanish tourism, THEN give them the cash.
 
2H76 said:
I understand their concern about being "guinea pigs" and the risk of a second wave of CV, but they then want money for sitting around doing nothing? R-i-g-h-t.
To me the best solution is to open up but for Spanish domestic flights only, once Spain is wholly under control. And then from other parts that are also proved to be under control. If that happens ans there is little Spanish tourism, THEN give them the cash.
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Would make sense to try it with just your citizens first to see how it goes. Will also make foreign tourist more comfortable travelling to Spain if they done that and shown all under control?‍♂️
 
white_isle_calling said:
How can there be such discrepancy between developed nations? Some countries are rolling out antibody tests and yet we're adamant that a reliable one doesn't exist?
I know as a Brit it's easy to get caught into mentality that the UK has the highest standard across the board (also see our attitude to any overseas law enforcement), but what's the real story here?
Spain is not a science or medical backwater. And if the Germans are trusting their test, then surely nobody here would suggest they would settle for anything less than a very high accuracy rate

I think I have my own suspicions, but curious what other people think
Click to expand...
According to FlightAware, Emirates airline are conducting rapid tests for passengers with a blood-tesf result in "ten minutes" https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...tests-for-boarding-passengers?t=1587119267888
Which raises questions - how accurate are these tests, and if you are found to be positive then what happens, especially if you are at a foreign airport and want to get home? It's possible, of course, to be infected whilst away.
And is this just so passengers can sit closer together on the plane?
 
white_isle_calling said:
How can there be such discrepancy between developed nations? Some countries are rolling out antibody tests and yet we're adamant that a reliable one doesn't exist?
I know as a Brit it's easy to get caught into mentality that the UK has the highest standard across the board (also see our attitude to any overseas law enforcement), but what's the real story here?
Spain is not a science or medical backwater. And if the Germans are trusting their test, then surely nobody here would suggest they would settle for anything less than a very high accuracy rate

I think I have my own suspicions, but curious what other people think
Click to expand...

Id suggest there are multiple issues at play. First, there are just not enough to go around. Every country on earth is looking to acquire fast and reliable tests. There is a need for hundreds of millions of tests worldwide and they just cannot be produced in large enough quantities at this time. Second, there are multiple types of tests. Easy to use, rapid response testing (think home pregnancy test, but with a finger stick for blood) is easier to use widely, but is generally going to be less accurate than a test that takes 3 days for a result and is run in a lab with precision equipment.

Lastly, if you know the sensitivity and specificity of your test, you can do the math to work backwards from your results to create a range of likely results. While this is not useful to the individual (am I immune or not?) it is still useful when making policy. There is no appreciable difference to knowing exactly 5% of the population has been infected vs a range 3-7% of the population has been infected.

Its all about trade-offs and picking the right test for a given use.
 
Right, thanks for your explanation again. So it would be more precise to say, accurate tests are out there, just we don't have our hands on them?
Sounds like PPE all over again
 
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