in 97 Blair won for 2 reasons - 1. the tories had lost the plot 2. Blair convinced suburbia he was one of them
I think Blair was brilliant in managing to obscure the post-clause 4 identity crisis in Labour for so long with his unique brand of 'personality' politics - but now he's gone, the party's split into factions, drifted, fuked up on various levels and alienated the marginals, so the opposition would have to collapse in spectacular fashion, the economy would have to recover bigtime, and the tory top command exposed as serial nonces for the opinion polls to change now...