☣ Coronavirus ☣

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ElrowLovers said:
Also that 1% number says nothing. If 1% is still let's say 500.000 positive tests and around 40% is false positive
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What matters is not the percentage of false positives among all positive tests, but the percentage of false positives among all tests (both negative and positive ones). Because this would be the chance of a non-infected person being prevented from traveling by a false positive.

This ratio cannot obviously be higher than the ratio of all positive tests, since they include both true and false positives. So if the ratio of all positive tests was around 1% in late summer-early Sept, it means the danger of being prevented from traveling by a false positive is less than 1%. So it's a non-issue for a single traveler or a couple. It could be an issue for a large group though.
 
Let me be clearer on the false positive remark. Perhaps scientifically they will not count as false positives...but if you had Covid or any other RNA type of virus the PCR test will give you a positive result. It's because in PCR certain test values are set high/low whatever.

Let's say the amount of virus in your nose/throat on a scale from 1/10 is 2 or 3...not contagious anymore, virus from months ago...then PCR will still say you have Covid. The new quicktests are better in that area, not counting anything from 1-5 as active virus.

That's the reason some football players were initially banned from playing in the Champions League last week (PCR positive) but after double checking with quick tests they could actually be on the field after all (Quick Test negative). Lots of political discussion about that in the Netherlands because Ajax Amsterdam would have missed 9 players and ended up only missing 1. It gave fuel to an ongoing discussion about calling 'positive PCR tests' contaminations or cases, which is unfair to society.

Now let's say you had Covid months ago...or another RNA type virus...but you are perfectly healthy and not contagious anymore.
Undertaking a PCR test could give you a high chance of not being allowed on your flight to Ibiza, while the Quick Test would allow you to travel because it measures more precisely.
 
If that is true why haven't we had lots of false positives in the testing within our hospital trust? We have been undertaking random testing for months and when locally Covid numbers were low we were only getting a handful of positives out of hundreds of tests. These tests were undertaken multiple times
 
CraigyB said:
The no taste and smell thing is so bizarre. Can see what your eating and sense the texture but literally nothing else.
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That happened to me a while ago using Corsodyl mouthwash - got really panicked as to whether it could be permanent !! I think I had it in my mouth for too long and it knocked out my sense of taste and smell. I still use it (albeit swill briefly) and not had the same problem since but it's very disconcerting !!! .
 
ElrowLovers said:
Let me be clearer on the false positive remark. Perhaps scientifically they will not count as false positives...but if you had Covid or any other RNA type of virus the PCR test will give you a positive result. It's because in PCR certain test values are set high/low whatever.

Let's say the amount of virus in your nose/throat on a scale from 1/10 is 2 or 3...not contagious anymore, virus from months ago...then PCR will still say you have Covid. The new quicktests are better in that area, not counting anything from 1-5 as active virus.

That's the reason some football players were initially banned from playing in the Champions League last week (PCR positive) but after double checking with quick tests they could actually be on the field after all (Quick Test negative). Lots of political discussion about that in the Netherlands because Ajax Amsterdam would have missed 9 players and ended up only missing 1. It gave fuel to an ongoing discussion about calling 'positive PCR tests' contaminations or cases, which is unfair to society.

Now let's say you had Covid months ago...or another RNA type virus...but you are perfectly healthy and not contagious anymore.
Undertaking a PCR test could give you a high chance of not being allowed on your flight to Ibiza, while the Quick Test would allow you to travel because it measures more precisely.
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what you describe isn't known as 'false positive' - at least definitely not in spain, but rather as 'unclear result' which can happen sometimes from what I've read. after this, as happened with those football players, they take other tests to determine if they really have the virus or not.

I still wonder what reliable source you have that 40% false positive number from.
 
ElrowLovers said:
Let me be clearer on the false positive remark. Perhaps scientifically they will not count as false positives...but if you had Covid or any other RNA type of virus the PCR test will give you a positive result. It's because in PCR certain test values are set high/low whatever.

Let's say the amount of virus in your nose/throat on a scale from 1/10 is 2 or 3...not contagious anymore, virus from months ago...then PCR will still say you have Covid. The new quicktests are better in that area, not counting anything from 1-5 as active virus.

Now let's say you had Covid months ago...or another RNA type virus...but you are perfectly healthy and not contagious anymore.
Undertaking a PCR test could give you a high chance of not being allowed on your flight to Ibiza, while the Quick Test would allow you to travel because it measures more precisely.
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PCR testing is the gold standard for COVID testing. It is the most accurate and widely available testing we have for detecting the virus. The quick test does not measure more precisely. The argument you are making is actually that PCR testing is too good at isolating the virus. The rapid test is more susceptible to miss active infections (false negative) than PCR testing. If a patient presents with COVID symptoms and a negative rapid test, the standard of care is to order a PCR for confirmation because it is far superior.

False negatives are the worst possible outcome when trying to slow a pandemic. PCR testing might mess with your holiday plans more, but from a public health perspective it is FAR better to quarantine too many people for too long than it is to miss positive cases.
 
Record number of cases in the Uk today, broken the 30,000 barrier. So time to blame it on the pubs, bars and restaurants.

Oh, wait, they've all been closed for two weeks nearly. Blimey...we might have to blame it on the schools and colleges now. Oh, feck, and people were telling us that in early October when the stats went up in Sept.

They are running out of excuses now, folks...
 
2H76 said:
Record number of cases in the Uk today, broken the 30,000 barrier. So time to blame it on the pubs, bars and restaurants.
Oh, wait, they've all been closed for two weeks nearly.
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Two weeks is not enough time to see any significant effect from the lockdown. Those who infected themselves in pubs/bars/restaurants are still busy infecting their relatives, partners and coworkers.

This is not to say schools are not to blame - I don't know that.

But the growth in the UK has slowed down since about two weeks.
 
Buckley said:
So, considering whether to take the family to Tenerife for Xmas, if the 'non-essential travel' advice is lifted and normal travel insurance is therefore available. Can anyone who has spent more time looking at this comment on their much lower cases per million people? Less testing, more testing? Is the relevant metric actually active cases as a % of the population?

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Still considering this, if rules allowed. Anyone keeping an eye on what the stats mean. Tenerife has less active cases than when I last looked.....
 
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2H76 said:
Record number of cases in the Uk today, broken the 30,000 barrier. So time to blame it on the pubs, bars and restaurants.

Oh, wait, they've all been closed for two weeks nearly. Blimey...we might have to blame it on the schools and colleges now. Oh, feck, and people were telling us that in early October when the stats went up in Sept.

They are running out of excuses now, folks...
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This is a bit of a false representation of the statistics dont you think?

If we tested say the whole UK today then the results would show probably over 1 million new cases (off the top of my head random figure), if we tested no one in the UK tomorrow then the results would show no new cases.....but this doesnt mean there are none and also doesnt show there has been a massive increase. Clearly if the UK ramp up the testing (either via Liverpool (moonshot) or at Universities) then the numbers of infections are naturally going to show much higher but it does necessarily mean an increase in cases, its just that we have found more that are already out there......if you get my drift.
 
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2H76 said:
Record number of cases in the Uk today, broken the 30,000 barrier. So time to blame it on the pubs, bars and restaurants.

Oh, wait, they've all been closed for two weeks nearly. Blimey...we might have to blame it on the schools and colleges now. Oh, feck, and people were telling us that in early October when the stats went up in Sept.

They are running out of excuses now, folks...
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I suspect this is as a result of the “leaked” lockdown plans.
People knew it was coming, so threw parties, went out and socialised, saw relatives one last time etc. The timing is pretty much spot on, two weeks almost to the day after the leak came out we hit the highest case numbers. However, as ever, it’s important to look at the specimen date as opposed to reporting date, and when you do so, there’s not a huge difference to the week prior.

The other thing to consider is that there was approx 70,000 more tests done than the previous day. The 33,000 figure is still some way off what the ONS and REACT predict for number of daily infections. These two studies however, do also pick up asymptomatic folk too, as the sample is random, as opposed to testing people who come forward.

The ZOE study (symptom reporting app) is updated each day and is a much better representation of the state of play at the moment and it is currently reporting around 37,000 cases per day and falling, so it’s likely that we’re just finding more of the cases, as opposed to their being more cases.

See this tweet for a good visiual representation. The next few days of filling in the gaps will be interesting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1326942785317064710
 
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I agree with what Lee is saying, the government/media (most likely the latter) seem to imply that the daily stats on infections (found through testing) are representative of actual number of infections in the UK on that day (hence appear alarming but make good headline news). I would more likely accept this view if the numbers of testing each day were the same number across the whole UK and done on a statistical sampling method (rather than based on the demand and number done) - akin to a election poll. As they are not they are simply the numbers of infections found as a percent of those actually tested, and those tested will vary considerably depending on where tested, how many tested....

I know this sounds like over analysis and Im certainly not trying to refute and figures outright but they need to be seen and understood with a lot of context.
 
ElrowLovers said:
Just google PCR + false positives.

Also that 1% number says nothing. If 1% is still let's say 500.000 positive tests and around 40% is false positive (because PCR also counts dead non-contagious viral material)...we're still talking about lots of people getting a positive result that will be not allowed to travel.
The newer quick tests have shown way less false positive results.

If the quick tests indeed get accepted for travel then the industry (travel, tourism, nightlife) is saved for 2021.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1326977634329300997
 
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