☣ Coronavirus ☣

[kimajy]

Sitting in one of the big regional vaccination centres with my mum. Must be 100 people waiting, cant be one under 80.

It's very regional - down here they are still struggling to get the over 90s done I think !! Doesn't help the centre allocated to the local GP surgery patients is more than 20 miles away and there's no public transport. Round trip taxi is about £150. I reckon it'll be another month before they sort things out for the over 75s here.

 

[2H76]

Must be 100 people waiting, cant be one under 80.

Must have read my tinder profile.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

It's very regional - down here they are still struggling to get the over 90s done I think !! Doesn't help the centre allocated to the local GP surgery patients is more than 20 miles away and there's no public transport. Round trip taxi is about £150. I reckon it'll be another month before they sort things out for the over 75s here.

Insane. Really needs to be able to happen on a much more local level.

 

[kimajy]

Insane. Really needs to be able to happen on a much more local level.

... and the crazy thing is we are far closer to Plymouth, a major city with public transport in from 3 miles away from us (for example), or the Health Centre village itself, and one of the 2 biggest hospitals in the county. That city draws a massive ring around itself in all areas of public services - I cannot use their recycling facilities for example as you have to show ID with a Plymouth address. Even Age Concern will not see anyone from outside the city limits.

I understand that some areas are difficult because of populations being disparate. However, our local post office town is Kingsbridge, which is a major local town with a (usually virtually empty) NHS Minor Injuries Unit and several GP practices. The town along with the whole around it is outside the "within 10 miles of a vaccination centre" map published by the NHS, which includes GP vaccination services. You have to wonder who is managing the planning of all this sometimes !

 

[4tothefloor]

 

[MrHullMysterious]

This is how they are distributed by date of death
View attachment 11315

Yeah it's good to go and look at deaths by date, seems to be max of 850ish a day. Of course it takes a week or more for a date to completely back filled with reporting delays.

(Even though reported today headline of 1500 is misleading due to report delays, they don't report them again in the next days headline figures. So the cumulative values are valid)

Should say if we have many more days with 1k+ deaths the date of death stats are gonna be over 1k soon. ?

As for more regional, they've said doing big centres at min as reduces wastage. If a local pharmacy gets a 5 box of vials, 1 vial does 10 people and you get 11 people in a day. You're likely to waste 9 doses. (Depending on rules on once opened etc).

So that why a little slow at making it more local, but believe that is route they want to go when have more oxford vaccine to distribute.

 

[CraigyB]

Y'all know that virologists and doctors are not that worried about those different strains right?
It's the media that has blown this out of proportions. It's being used a pandemic within a pandemic, an even worse angry brother of Covid-19...
Dutch media is saying politicians are scared because of the horrifying images we see from the UK.
It's fearporn.

Its far more contagious therefore more infected, more deaths. Its literally trump scale madness to deny this is real.

Seen it in my own work place since returning. Outbreak going through the work like it didn't during first wave with people having limited contacts.

The horrifying images from the UK hospitals are real and yes they are being used in the media to attempt to get people to comply to guidelines but its needed. 1500 died yesterday and that daily trend is going to get worse.

 

[2H76]

Sat here absolutely totally pissed off. Just think, in March 2020 they described where we would be in January 2021 as half as bad as this...I think we'd have all called it a day and drunk Trump's bleach added to five bottles of vodka?? It's never ending, what if the vaccines only work for a few months? The virus works it's way around it and we're back to worse-than-square-one??

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Or do we just carry on with lockdown, gradually opening up (the bars and clubs won't be - of course) and continuing this misery for another 8 - 9 months for the benefit of people not getting ill and flooding the NHS and hopefully by 2022 it will all have been a bad dream?

 

[BenH]

Sat here absolutely totally pissed off. Just think, in March 2020 they described where we would be in January 2021 as half as bad as this...I think we'd have all called it a day and drunk Trump's bleach added to five bottles of vodka?? It's never ending, what if the vaccines only work for a few months? The virus works it's way around it and we're back to worse-than-square-one??

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Or do we just carry on with lockdown, gradually opening up (the bars and clubs won't be - of course) and continuing this misery for another 8 - 9 months for the benefit of people not getting ill and flooding the NHS and hopefully by 2022 it will all have been a bad dream?

I can relate to this post entirely! Pretty much echoes my thoughts/worries entirely

 

[BenH]

Sorry badly worded I’m multitasking here but you get my drift

 

[BareBen91]

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Maybe it should be put to a vote...51.9% in favour of Corexit

 

[lee111s]

Sat here absolutely totally pissed off. Just think, in March 2020 they described where we would be in January 2021 as half as bad as this...I think we'd have all called it a day and drunk Trump's bleach added to five bottles of vodka?? It's never ending, what if the vaccines only work for a few months? The virus works it's way around it and we're back to worse-than-square-one??

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Or do we just carry on with lockdown, gradually opening up (the bars and clubs won't be - of course) and continuing this misery for another 8 - 9 months for the benefit of people not getting ill and flooding the NHS and hopefully by 2022 it will all have been a bad dream?

There was a piece about this in the news yesterday:


Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at Public Health England, said that if the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 transmission, the virus may need to be allowed to circulate among younger people.

Asked if it was likely the entire population would need to be vaccinated, she told the Science and Technology Committee: "We may need to accept, if the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission, that we're going to protect the people who are really vulnerable and going to die and have serious disease, but we allow the disease to circulate in younger people where it's not causing much harm.

"That may be the situation we go to, like we are with things like flu, that we accept that a lot of people get flu but we protect those who are most vulnerable.

"That may be the outcome, I'm hoping it will be a bit better than that."

 

[4tothefloor]

There was a piece about this in the news yesterday:


Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at Public Health England, said that if the vaccine does not prevent COVID-19 transmission, the virus may need to be allowed to circulate among younger people.

Asked if it was likely the entire population would need to be vaccinated, she told the Science and Technology Committee: "We may need to accept, if the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission, that we're going to protect the people who are really vulnerable and going to die and have serious disease, but we allow the disease to circulate in younger people where it's not causing much harm.

"That may be the situation we go to, like we are with things like flu, that we accept that a lot of people get flu but we protect those who are most vulnerable.

"That may be the outcome, I'm hoping it will be a bit better than that."

I think Mary is behind on the news, fortunately for those of us under 50 and concerned about being infected. The U.K. government have committed that everyone in the population will be offered a vaccine by autumn.

Vaccinations are going very well here. The numbers of those vaccinated are increasing daily and I saw one report that suggested they are seeking to scale up to 500k a day. We have sufficient orders of the Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in place and it seems they are providing the stocks necessary to vaccinate in line and ahead of target.

It could well be that the only two things the U.K. government have got right in this process is the testing and vaccination programmes.

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Sat here absolutely totally pissed off. Just think, in March 2020 they described where we would be in January 2021 as half as bad as this...I think we'd have all called it a day and drunk Trump's bleach added to five bottles of vodka?? It's never ending, what if the vaccines only work for a few months? The virus works it's way around it and we're back to worse-than-square-one??

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Or do we just carry on with lockdown, gradually opening up (the bars and clubs won't be - of course) and continuing this misery for another 8 - 9 months for the benefit of people not getting ill and flooding the NHS and hopefully by 2022 it will all have been a bad dream?

If people vote for a scenario that's still going to put massive strain on the NHS, we need to know how that strain is going to be dealt with. Remember, it's a strain that will slow down other appointments and operations - unless anyone with covid is just thrown to the side.

I personally just wouldn't want to go to a crowded event while this is doing serious rounds.

 

[2H76]

I think Mary is behind on the news, fortunately! The U.K. government have committed that everyone in the population will be offered a vaccine by autumn.

Yes, hopefully everyone will take that up. But there's a long time between now and Autumn, and if this varient (or any new ones) spread rapidly, we might not get that window of normality that we got last summer. Will someone be brave enough to allow us to go back to normal before everyone is vaxxed, or does another 6 months slip by? And if so - will they give us some kinda date we can look forward to?

My calendar for 2021 is, bar one dentist's appointment, completely empty.

 

[4tothefloor]

Yes, hopefully everyone will take that up. But there's a long time between now and Autumn, and if this varient (or any new ones) spread rapidly, we might not get that window of normality that we got last summer. Will someone be brave enough to allow us to go back to normal before everyone is vaxxed, or does another 6 months slip by? And if so - will they give us some kinda date we can look forward to?

My calendar for 2021 is, bar one dentist's appointment, completely empty.

There is but at the current rate and if ramped up to 2m a week and then 2.5m a week we will see the vaccination programme completed by summer, vaccination availability not withstanding.

Mutations of Covid will just have to be dealt with on a case by case basis. It’s impossible to predict the impact of them until months after they are identified, tested and analysed.

I don’t think we will get back to normal. Whitty has already said there may need to be interventions and restrictions next winter, and that is when everyone has been vaccinated (that want to be). I think we will see numbers of infections reduce, vaccinations increase and after Easter I think we will see kids return to school and a reintroduction of the tiering system till the summer. Hopefully we all quickly move to tier 1but that will take time.

 

[2H76]

There is but at the current rate and if ramped up to 2m a week and then 2.5m a week we will see the vaccination programme completed by summer, vaccination availability not withstanding.

Mutations of Covid will just have to be dealt with on a case by case basis. It’s impossible to predict the impact of them until months after they are identified, tested and analysed.

I don’t think we will get back to normal. Whitty has already said there may need to be interventions and restrictions next winter, and that is when everyone has been vaccinated (that want to be). I think we will see numbers of infections reduce, vaccinations increase and after Easter I think we will see kids return to school and a reintroduction of the tiering system till the summer. Hopefully we all quickly move to tier 1but that will take time.

Not sure that with the new strain the tiering system works. But aside that - I will take the tiering system IF they are quick to lower/increase regoins. Bolton - my manor - got put into severe restrictions before tiers were introduced, and then clearly was forgotton about.
When we do return to tiers we need fast movement (one way or another) and clear indications of where each region is heading. OPr we will end up locked down unnecessarily for long periods.

 

[MrHullMysterious]

My take on it is this.
They'll get majority of vulnerable vaccinated by end of March. Then they will reduce restrictions a bit, wait 2 weeks and see how it plays out, then reduce restrictions a bit more etc. (Btw need around 285k+ vaccinated a day to hit 2m a week)

They want the whole adult population to be offered the vaccine by autumn and also think they will offer it to kids once the safety trial data is done (probs winter/next year).

This will reduce risk to NHS and the individual, but also reduce risk of mutations that "escape" the current vaccines.

But over time vaccines will need to be tweaked like seasonal flu, and we'll be all offered it (hopefully for free) each year.

The problem I can see is if schools go back full time before most the adults have been offered the vaccine. New variants transmit a lot via schools, or so it would seem.

 

[2H76]

Yesterday I got a letter from the NHS inviting me to have the vaccine....the flu one! Seeing as we're all stuck inside it seems rather poiontless, but I might as well pop up to the chemist and have it done. Call at the newsagents on the way back and make it a Big Day Out.

Shall I take a flask and some sandwiches?? *Sighs*

 

[CraigyB]

Sat here absolutely totally pissed off. Just think, in March 2020 they described where we would be in January 2021 as half as bad as this...I think we'd have all called it a day and drunk Trump's bleach added to five bottles of vodka?? It's never ending, what if the vaccines only work for a few months? The virus works it's way around it and we're back to worse-than-square-one??

I don't know what to think...it's nearly 12 months. Should we get to a point - maybe the beginning of May - where we want the government to say "We've protected the over 70's etc, think we've all had enough now, open everything up as you were, if you get covid under 70 the odds are stacked against you dying, but some will (just like a car accident, cancer, flash of lightening etc - it's a risk we have to take)?

Or do we just carry on with lockdown, gradually opening up (the bars and clubs won't be - of course) and continuing this misery for another 8 - 9 months for the benefit of people not getting ill and flooding the NHS and hopefully by 2022 it will all have been a bad dream?

Try and stay positive mate.

The outlook for me looks like in the UK at least as...

- over 70's and vulnerable vaccinated by Easter, early Spring,
- over 50's and 60s through the late Spring / Summer.

Lockdown till easter and then into the tiers for April / May with whole of the country being in tier 1 by June as the death and hospitalisation numbers reduce.

Then I think over the summer we will see rate of infection reduce as we did last year and in parallel with vaccinations and be out of this by Sept / October time completely.

I think travel in summer will be possible but clubs wont be open until October time.