one for morbyd

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grego

Active Member
on QT last night, a famous british historian, that you sort of know, said (and i can't remember the exact quote),

"putin's russia is.........and i'll have to put this delicately...........is descending into a horrendous tyranny"

by delicately, he then clarified that that was his way of making an understatement.

Discuss.
 
Depends on what you value in life.

Life under Putin is far less chaotic and much more stable than it was under Yeltsin. The country has reasserted itself on the global stage. The economy is growing at breakneck speed. The oligarchs no longer dictate policy. Your average Ivan is happy with that. It's progress, which is why Putin's ratings are so high.

Now, if you believe in freedom of speech, pluralism in politics, and the idea that the state should keep its nose out of business, then Putin's Russia is a major step backwards.

The Cold War mentality is still strong on both sides of the old Iron Curtain.

I think in the West, there is a fear that Russia could use it's growing economic importance to defend its positions in international affairs. Strangely enough, it's a far more potent tool than their nuclear bombs ever were.... and you can't entirely blame them for it.

In Russia, they haven't quite gotten over the idea that they're not a superpower anymore. So, if it's possible to exert influence on international affairs by pulling economic levers, there isn't the understanding that business should be separate from state policy.
 
that is how things are now. what will change if there really is a lack of plurality in the next election (2 years??)
 
Morbyd said:
Depends on what you value in life.

I think in the West, there is a fear that Russia could use it's growing economic importance to defend its positions in international affairs.

In Russia, they haven't quite gotten over the idea that they're not a superpower anymore. So, if it's possible to exert influence on international affairs by pulling economic levers, there isn't the understanding that business should be separate from state policy.
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Isn't that what the good old USofA have been doing for decades?

And any other 'world power' and I use the term loosely....

Thats politics no?
 
Benson said:
Isn't that what the good old USofA have been doing for decades?

And any other 'world power' and I use the term loosely....

Thats politics no?
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I think all countries do it when they can, and certainly the US.

That's why I think there's alarmism in the West. Heaven forbid if Russia is again powerful enough to get it's way, especially when strategic interests aren't aligned.

The thing I don't like about how they do it in Russia is that rather than do it through the levers of a democratic/capitalist regime (tariffs, taxes, sanctions, export quotas, etc), Russia does it through direct interference in business (or through massive state-owned monopolies like Gazprom). But I suppose you could argue that it's just another means to an end.
 
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grego said:
that is how things are now. what will change if there really is a lack of plurality in the next election (2 years??)
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Parliamentary elections in December, presidential in March.

Putin could change the constitution and run for a 3rd term and most people would be just fine with it. He's said he won't, so there will probably be a handpicked successor and I think most people will go along with that too.

the Duma (parliament) is set to be a joke. There are these 2 main parties now - United Russia, which has been the party of power for a while now, and the newly-formed but also Kremlin-controlled A Just Russia, which is being positioned as a competing party. Presto! 2 party system! :confused:

The Communists and Liberal Democratic Party (which is neither liberal nor especially democratic... in fact, more nationalist!) will get into the next Duma but the 2 main liberal parties are likely out of luck.

The next Duma will not have representatives of individual constituencies - just people nominated on party lists from the parties that receive enough votes over a certain threshold (which was raised to 7%, if I'm not mistaken). Previously, it was half constituencies and half party lists (5% threshold) so you actually had independents and smaller parties represented.

In any case, people aren't complaining now even though United Russia controls the Duma... don't see them complaining after the elections either.
 
Morbyd said:
I think all countries do it when they can, and certainly the US.

That's why I think there's alarmism in the West. Heaven forbid if Russia is again powerful enough to get it's way, especially when strategic interests aren't aline.

The thing I don't like about how they do it in Russia is that rather than do it through the levers of a democratic/capitalist regime (tariffs, taxes, sanctions, export quotas, etc), Russia does it through direct interference in business (or through massive state-owned monopolies like Gazprom). But I suppose you could argue that it's just another means to an end.
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Yup - well thats just a throw back to their communist roots...

No different to the French and Renault/Peugeot, etc...
 
Tourist said:
@Morbyd based on your knowledge, do you think Putin would really press the nuke button?
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I'm hesitant to make any predictions on this. I thought he was bluffing about the Ukraine invasion when the buildup on the border started ~a year ago or so, just trying to get concessions out of NATO. I was obviously wrong - it was all about the ideology/denial of Ukrainian statehood and hurt feelings about the loss of empire, not to mention a land bridge to Crimea. The complaints about NATO expansion were (and sometimes still are) a smokescreen.

I didn't think Putin would destroy 30 years of economic progress and integration into the global system for the sake of hubris but that's exactly what he did. I'm also appalled at the wanton destruction of cities even on territory the Russian government wanted to occupy (see: Mariupol). Given all that, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to toss a tactical nuke or two into the mix. I just hope he hasn't gotten so far up his own arse to do it.
 
In german we say : Mal den Teufel nicht an die Wand.
Translation: Dont paint the devil at the wall.
That means : Dont go from the worst.

Next year in Ibiza we remember this horrible times.
 
Morbyd said:
I'm hesitant to make any predictions on this. I thought he was bluffing about the Ukraine invasion when the buildup on the border started ~a year ago or so, just trying to get concessions out of NATO. I was obviously wrong - it was all about the ideology/denial of Ukrainian statehood and hurt feelings about the loss of empire, not to mention a land bridge to Crimea. The complaints about NATO expansion were (and sometimes still are) a smokescreen.

I didn't think Putin would destroy 30 years of economic progress and integration into the global system for the sake of hubris but that's exactly what he did. I'm also appalled at the wanton destruction of cities even on territory the Russian government wanted to occupy (see: Mariupol). Given all that, I wouldn't be surprised if he decided to toss a tactical nuke or two into the mix. I just hope he hasn't gotten so far up his own arse to do it.
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a lot of good points there. must be weird for you given you spent so many years there? I have a Spanish friend who did the trans-siberian railway to Mongolia in 2019 obv pre-everything and he recently saw a news report from a small remote town he had visited where security were roughing up local conscripts and that brought it home a bit. On a purely insignificant selfish tourist level, I really wish I had gone on that railway when I had the chance. I can't see it happening in my lifetime.
 
War and geo-political posturing are curious bedfellows in the sense that combined they can turn a nation's leader from an ice cold strategist and calculating risk-taker into a frothing, rabid lunatic. This becomes more apparent after a series of defeats or capitulations by the aggressor, which is often followed by widespread civil unrest. If the right combination of circumstances occurs I could see Putin launching a limited tactical nuclear strike on a Ukranian city. The most interesting thing about that is how China would react. I believe they would sever all ties with Putin if that did become an eventuality.
 
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