Grand National
- Thread starter Fronty
- Start date
puppylover
Active Member
I actually would like to see it banned, or at the very least make it a flat race rather than jumps - I had a walk around Aintree years ago and I was amazed at how high those jumps are - I really dont like it at all..... 
puppylover
Active Member
Hey entitled to an opinion - but not going to knock anyone else for enjoying it - its just my feelings at the end of the day...... chill.......
Yo, im not sure who im gonna back as yet. Ill let you know 2mor aftera little research. Cummon with your tips guys...Gregos usually good, i think he won a good bit at Cheltenham. Had posted a good few tips on here!
Keep this thread for tips and debate as intended. Dont hi-jack it and turn it into a 3 page horse cruelty thread! Start a new 1 if u wanna chat about that!
Keep this thread for tips and debate as intended. Dont hi-jack it and turn it into a 3 page horse cruelty thread! Start a new 1 if u wanna chat about that!
spunkymonkey
Active Member
Two for me at the moment (one outsider) although I hate tips for this race as you just cant account for what happens with other horses falling. Clan Royal looked like winning last year but got carried out at Bechers by a loose horse. My two:
Numbersixvalverde (10/1): won the Irish National last Easter and has been layed out for this race ever since. Has had a quiet enough winter campaign and having not won since the Irish National, he gets in on a nice low weight (10st7). Has had two hirdle race recently to keep him fit and keep the handicapper away from him.
Nil Desperandum (33/1 or 50/1 some places): ran a blinder last year to finish 6th behind Hedgehunter. Made a bad mistake at the 3rd last just when he was getting into it and I think would have been second to Hedgehunter but for that mistake. Over a stone better at the weights this year with Hedgehunter and far too big a price at 50/1.
Would be interested to see what Grego is going for. As was mentioned already, he had a great Cheltenham.
Numbersixvalverde (10/1): won the Irish National last Easter and has been layed out for this race ever since. Has had a quiet enough winter campaign and having not won since the Irish National, he gets in on a nice low weight (10st7). Has had two hirdle race recently to keep him fit and keep the handicapper away from him.
Nil Desperandum (33/1 or 50/1 some places): ran a blinder last year to finish 6th behind Hedgehunter. Made a bad mistake at the 3rd last just when he was getting into it and I think would have been second to Hedgehunter but for that mistake. Over a stone better at the weights this year with Hedgehunter and far too big a price at 50/1.
Would be interested to see what Grego is going for. As was mentioned already, he had a great Cheltenham.
Buckley
Well-Known Member
spunkymonkey said:
Unlike the 8 horses who died painfully. I'm with Pups on this one I'm afraid. Wish I hadn't gone to Chepstow races a few weeks ago - found out the horse we saw fall was put down afterwards.
Folk I know who run a city farm tell me that horses enjoy racing and some jumping but not at the speed and height involved in most races.
Buckley
Well-Known Member
grego said:i didn't tell you at the time but the story in your 'weekend rundown' report about the horse you backed...........made me pi$s. you know what i mean.......
This?
"Sat - Chepstow races. Had my second and third ever bets in my life, completing a hatrick of losses
. My first sight of the first one I backed was seeing him gallop around the final bend, jockey-less, having decided he'd really rather go it alone just after the start. He then decided he didn't really like the pre-determinded course and battered his way through the flimsy barriers marking the 'official' route. Anna told me I shouldn't be cheering him anymore, but I couldn't help but admire his spirit and he looked like he was having the time of his life!"Was very funny at the time, but found the following week one of the other horses had been put down
2 for me are INNOX and INCA TRAIL.
both we weighted, decent form, and a decent value at 14/1 and 40/1 respectively.
Although the top 2 in the betting have a good shout, Hedgehunter nor Clan Royal represent great value over 4 1/2miles and 30 fences.
My original selection Cornish Rebel could go well, but is prone to errors, and is also carrying nearly 12stone.
both we weighted, decent form, and a decent value at 14/1 and 40/1 respectively.
Although the top 2 in the betting have a good shout, Hedgehunter nor Clan Royal represent great value over 4 1/2miles and 30 fences.
My original selection Cornish Rebel could go well, but is prone to errors, and is also carrying nearly 12stone.
mambobirdette
Active Member
We done a sweepstake at work, i pulled Le Duc out of the hat
I wont watch it on TV, i dont really care if i win or not
I wont watch it on TV, i dont really care if i win or not
i never never ever ever bet on the national, its a complete joke, all the odds are skewed - no horse should be shorter than about 14/1 in a field that size and a course that demanding.
if you really wanna have a bet back a mid-weight (that you know will get the trip) eachway at 30/1+.
my tip for the national would be to use the money you were gonna gamble with and treat yourself to a cocktail or some champagne. unless of course money is no object to you..........then spend away
if you really wanna have a bet back a mid-weight (that you know will get the trip) eachway at 30/1+.
my tip for the national would be to use the money you were gonna gamble with and treat yourself to a cocktail or some champagne. unless of course money is no object to you..........then spend away
Here is some pretty good research for all the punters out there...
Good luck! 8)
Trends from the last decade for the big race, are as follows:
* Aged between 8 and 12, ten winners in last ten runnings
* Ran at least ten times over fences, 10/10
* Officially rated at least 136, 10/10
* Carried less than 10st 13lb, 10/10
* Won over at least 3m, 10/10
* Achieved a chase Racing Post Rating of at least 142, 10/10
* Between four and six runs since the start of August, 10/10
* Won Class A or B chase, 10/10 (eight at Class A level)
* Ran in the past 42 days, 10/10
* Running in National for the first time, 7/10
Out of the 40 left in only four tick all 10 boxes: Lord of Illusion, Joe's Edge, Ballycassidy, Nil Desperandum.
Then there are eight that tick almost all: Innox, Silver Birch, Clan Royal, Juveigneur, Garvivonnian, Jack High, Baron Windrush and Heros Collonge.
Another influential stat is that seven of the last 10 winners had run over the National fences, three of them winning or finishing in the frame. That favours Nil Desperandum, Innox, Silver Birch, Clan Royal, Garvivonnian and Heros Collonge.
Ballycassidy and Juveigneur have both tried these fences but ran too badly to be true so they're off the list.
In last year's race Nil Desperandum seemed to stay better than Heros Collonge and Innox, and is carrying 4lbs less with arguably a better prep. Innox looks stronger this year but is carrying 7lbs more (plus no Frenchie has won in the last decade) while Heros Collonge carries 4lbs less.
Clan Royal could piss this race but at 5s is unbackable. I haven't even mentioned Hedgehunter because he can't win under 11-12 and he's 8s with me. Lay of the day as far as I'm concerned. Nothing carrying above 11st looks to have a chance.
Horses to back look like Nil Desperandum at 40s, Silver Birch at 25s (praying for a return to form), Garvivonnian at 22s and either Joe's Edge (25s) or Jack High (16s).
Looks like it'll go to the Irish boys like all the big NH races do these days.
Good luck! 8)
Trends from the last decade for the big race, are as follows:
* Aged between 8 and 12, ten winners in last ten runnings
* Ran at least ten times over fences, 10/10
* Officially rated at least 136, 10/10
* Carried less than 10st 13lb, 10/10
* Won over at least 3m, 10/10
* Achieved a chase Racing Post Rating of at least 142, 10/10
* Between four and six runs since the start of August, 10/10
* Won Class A or B chase, 10/10 (eight at Class A level)
* Ran in the past 42 days, 10/10
* Running in National for the first time, 7/10
Out of the 40 left in only four tick all 10 boxes: Lord of Illusion, Joe's Edge, Ballycassidy, Nil Desperandum.
Then there are eight that tick almost all: Innox, Silver Birch, Clan Royal, Juveigneur, Garvivonnian, Jack High, Baron Windrush and Heros Collonge.
Another influential stat is that seven of the last 10 winners had run over the National fences, three of them winning or finishing in the frame. That favours Nil Desperandum, Innox, Silver Birch, Clan Royal, Garvivonnian and Heros Collonge.
Ballycassidy and Juveigneur have both tried these fences but ran too badly to be true so they're off the list.
In last year's race Nil Desperandum seemed to stay better than Heros Collonge and Innox, and is carrying 4lbs less with arguably a better prep. Innox looks stronger this year but is carrying 7lbs more (plus no Frenchie has won in the last decade) while Heros Collonge carries 4lbs less.
Clan Royal could piss this race but at 5s is unbackable. I haven't even mentioned Hedgehunter because he can't win under 11-12 and he's 8s with me. Lay of the day as far as I'm concerned. Nothing carrying above 11st looks to have a chance.
Horses to back look like Nil Desperandum at 40s, Silver Birch at 25s (praying for a return to form), Garvivonnian at 22s and either Joe's Edge (25s) or Jack High (16s).
Looks like it'll go to the Irish boys like all the big NH races do these days.