I agree with you for what it's worth. There is a definate arrogance to England where we think we have a chance. It happens every tournament when the only times we have got ourselves in with a real chance was, funnily enough 2 of the times you mention, Italy and Japan. And also Euro 96.
What I would say is despite the disappointment we feel when we've been built up to believe we are good, only to get knocked out, I'd still prefer to have got that far than to have not qualified or gone out in the first round. You must agree with that.
And going back to an earlier point you made, the 3 times I've felt we've had a chance of winning, we've got knocked out by the eventual winners, hardly inferior nations.